Zimbabwe: Economy no longer on free fall?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Zimbabwe is turning around; but how many see the Great Pumpkin?

According to the World Economic Outlook – a report released by the IMF on 30 September 2009 - growth in the country’s gross domestic product would accelerate to 6 percent in 2010 - while consumer inflation would average 9 percent in 2009 and rise to an average of 12 percent in 2010. The southern African nation's current account deficit stands at 21.4 percent of GDP in 2009 - and will narrow to 19.9 percent in 2010. Loaded for bear - the IMF projects Zimbabwe's economy is likely to grow by 3.7 percent in 2009 - the first expansion since 1997.

Good news - but there is one little problem with hanging all hats on econometric presumptions. Often they do not account for the cold - hard reality that the country's crisis is multi-layered and thus transcends economics. Further - it does not require rocket science to appreciate that poor governance - lack of democratic citizenship and failure of the rule of law do not exactly make the best foundation for a bull market — no matter how much time is spent rubbing the lucky rabbit’s foot.

And without turning molehills into mountains or vice-versa – some facts economists and politicians would rather push under the carpet. These include the "shadow inventory" of Zimbabwe's total debt that includes domestic and external arrears totaling US$5 -7 billion - of which US$5 -2 billion is external and US$413 million in domestic liabilities. Unemployment is soaring - hovering around 80-85 percent at the heels of industries that are operating at only 20 and 30 percent capacity. I have not mentioned the collapse of essential infrastructure (roads - dams etc.) - disruption in agricultural production and the global HIV/AIDS crisis. These factors are not good for any market. So when you add it all up - the picture you get is a lot less rosy than the one painted in the latest IMF report.

Indeed - the departure of the valueless Zimbabwean dollar from circulation early 2009 was a gulp of air. According to John Legat (Chief Executive at Imara Asset Management in Zimbabwe) - “Zimbabwe's bank deposits rose from nothing to US$500 million (R3.7 billion) in May 2009 - reaching US$1bn in August 2009 -" He adds that “the rate of inflows has encouraged banks to begin lending again - with loan/deposit ratios approaching 50% “

Zimbabwe currently needs up to US$10 billion for economic recovery. It is officially estimated the country needs US$45 billion for the next 10 years to recover to 1997 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels. But in the absence of further political and economic reform – even the much touted cash reprieve from Western nations becomes a big problem if it is granted before the establishment of democratic institutions.

No doubt – however - one of these days the people of Zimbabwe will get it right - except today is just not that day — not by a long shot.

Who let the ‘dogs of war' out?

By Tula Dlamini

A rebellion by the South African armed forces – others say attempted sedition - happened on 15 August 2009 - coincidentally on the 15th birthday of the South African National Defense Union (SANDU) – the outfit that organized the protest. Police responded with rubber bullets and teargas to disperse the protest described by the defense minister as a threat to national security. Four soldiers were taken to hospital and 18 were injured.


There was a build-up to the mutinous unrest that took place at the government Union Buildings in Pretoria. Reportedly - over 4000 grievances remain up in the air – unresolved - and arguably - political leadership remains numb to the needs of soldiers. And in a situation where the grievance procedures do not function properly; militant action often becomes an option and this is where things have gone terribly wrong.

Firstly - there is reason to suspect that pressure emanating from the current global economic recession means greater levels of disgruntlement within the swelling ranks of the poor who compete for increasingly scarce resources. Secondly - the spread of geographical locations suggests that a growing number of communities or organized groups see protests as an acceptable outlet for their frustration.

But unlike other employees demanding better wages or communities protesting lack of service delivery - we now have unhappy armed soldiers expressing their anger at the State in public.

With good reason - defense and military veterans’ minister Dr. Lindiwe Nonceba Sisulu refused to tolerate the kind of anarchy. 1420 soldiers - medics and airmen were subsequently issued with dismissal letters — 1333 from the SA Army - 80 from SA Military Health Service and seven from the SA Air Force.

“We have decided following legal processes available to the defense force and within the defense force to proceed with the ultimate sanction that will allow the soldiers to separate, which means they will be dismissed,” media reports quoted Sisulu as saying.

At the time of the protest - about 5000 soldiers and police from neighboring countries were in SA for a final drill in preparation for a SADC regional brigade meant for peace-keeping. Known as Exercise Golfinho, it would be SA’s biggest joint military drill since 1994. The exercise was in line with the African Union’s timeline for a continental stand-by force.

Now – just imagine the SADC brigade calling the South African Armed forces on the phone and being told by a recorded voice message - “We are sorry – the unit you require is attending the compulsory march at the Union Buildings - instigated by SADFU, SASFU, COSATU and others. Please leave a message stating the specific crisis and a number where you can be reached. As soon as they return from their up and down 'toyi toyi' drill - we will return your call.

Please speak after the tone - or if you require more options - please choose from the following options:

If your crisis is small and is located near the sea - press 1 for the Commissioner of the Police who resides in Kwa Zulu Natal and not Johannesburg - the crime capital.

If your concern is distant - with temperate climate and good hotels - and can be solved by one or two low-risk high-altitude bombing runs - press 2 for the Minister of Defense’s spokesperson. Please note that special consideration will be given to member countries requiring net-centric - satellite or stealth technology and can provide additional research and development funding.

If your inquiry concerns a situation which can be resolved by a bit of decoration - flags and a really good marching band - please write - well in advance - to the Umkhonto we Sizwe and Azanian People’s Liberation Army military veterans’ associations (MKMVA and APLAMVA). Please note that this service is extremely limited and will be provided on a first-come - first-serve basis.

If your inquiry is not urgent - press 3 for the Rapid Deployment Force. We expect it will ready by 2020.

If you are in really hot trouble - please press 4 - and your call will be answered by the Chief Operations Officer in the President’s office. Please note that a mandatory credit check will be done for countries like Zimbabwe to ensure you can afford the inherent additional costs that may arise. Also - be aware that the SA government may bill your account at any time and is not required to tell you why - as such information is classified.

If you are interested in joining the South African Army - and you wish to be shouted at - paid little – die prematurely - put your family in a condemned slum in Siyathemba or some place else - miles from civilization - and are prepared to work your butt off - risking your life in Burundi - DRC - in all weather and terrains - both day and night - whilst watching the economic recession erode your original benefits package - then please stay on the line. Your call will be answered shortly by the next available bitter - passed -over for promotion - Army Recruiter located in a beer drinking hole down by your nearest military barrack.

Have a pleasant day - and thank you again for trying to contact the South Africa Army.”

Sounds spooky – does it not? Yet - jokes aside and gloves off - the above scenario is likely - particularly when cheque book revolutionaries - who call themselves union leaders – make reckless statements about the ‘constitutional right’ of soldiers to protest – and are allowed to reduce SADF into a training centre for a new generation of anarchists.

Bravo to the Ministry of Defense for pursuing the democratic route of obtaining a High Court interdict (01 September 2009) prohibiting unions from illegal protest and also prohibiting their officials to encourage the same. In other countries or even here under apartheid - military ill discipline would have warranted - not ‘rubber bullets and water canons’ – but ‘death by firing squad’.


One is not suggesting that military ‘defenders of South Africa’s democracy’ have no right to be heard or to unionize. Certainly those rights - enshrined in country's constitution must be upheld. More so - there is no wisdom in training these guys, giving them military weapons and a uniform - and then denying them reasonable wages and decent working conditions - only to act surprised when car hijackings - cash-in-transit heists and mall robberies - conducted with military precision - become the order of the day. This is why it is urgent and required for the management of the armed forces (SANDF) - the soldiers unions (SAND and SASF) to bring stability through robust dialogue and due process.

But surely - there are unacceptable ways of expressing displeasure. First - throwing a petrol bomb into a police vehicle car and vandalizing others is a ‘bad card’. Further - timing an illegal strike to coincide with the SADC regional brigade meant for peace-keeping is mischievous - if not treasonous.

It must be noted that the inability of the country’s military leadership to address the aspirations of military personnel dates back to days before the African National Congress (ANC) came into power. In fact - the advent of a new democratic dispensation in 1994 is partly what led to the formation of military unions in the first place. Yet – fact be told - the current administration led by President Jacob Zuma and defense Minister Sisulu is hardly four months in office and already some soldiers are picketing. There is something odd and totally unacceptable with this picture!!

"Umangoye uyanuka" - (Nguni saying)- Literally translated means "I smell a rat"

Race - sex row as runner 'steals' both gold and headlines

By Tula Dlamini

An 18 year old South African athlete wins a gold-medal in the 800m World Athletics Championships in Berlin and suddenly her sex is questioned. There is no doubt she has the usual plumbing – but because she won - the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) wants to verify if she is 100% standard female.


Mokgadi Caster Semenya - who grew up in deep poverty in South Africa’s rural hinterland of Limpopo province - clocked times which belie her youth – beating Janeth Jepkosgei - the defending champion - by 2.45 seconds - more than 0.45 of a second faster than world renowned Kelly Holmes's career best.

Granted - Caster does have much more body mass than most girl athletes her age. Her supposedly mannish characteristics - natural as they are – brought to the fore her gender and subsequent claims that this ‘ambiguity’ could cause chemical and physiological differences that would give her a genetic advantage. But as President Zuma pointed out – verification of gender did not require the IAAF to trample on her privacy and dignity.

That noted - a lot has been said which does not seem to make sense - either in moral or strategic terms – the extent to which I am tempted to take the intellectually lazy route of assuming some of the comments are simply crazy or stupid. Except – that approach would not render the discussion more productive. Instead – the only hope lies in assuming views expressed – no matter how ridiculous – are made by smart people using some kind of rationale.

At the Johannesburg airport – where more than 2000 singing - dancing and horn-blowing supporters came to welcome Caster and other athletes returning from the IAAF World Championships – the absence of ‘white’ fans was conspicuous. ANC Youth League President Julius Malema and other political ‘bigwigs’ took issue - insisted the call for ‘gender testing’ by the IAAF was a sign of ‘yet another victimisation of a black person by cruel - evil white people’. Clearly – a problematic statement considering the fact that statistics indicate a fairly even spread of testing across racial groups in athletic events. Even moreso - that Caster herself has professionally benefited from relationships with 'white' people.

Others – as if suspecting Caster was pretending to be a female or a post-operative transsexual - offered notions on how women and men should ‘look’ – dress - behave and perform.

Sally Cross – founder of Intersex South Africa observed: “the suspicion that Caster is not a ‘real woman’ was based purely on secondary sexual characteristics - muscular build – deep-ish voice and some facial hair”.

In a nutshell – the commentary surrounding Caster’s gender probe underpinned societies’ current dominant expectations regarding race and gender.

Later - Caster met South Africa President Jacob Zuma who denounced the athletics world governing body's handling of gender tests and congratulated the runner for her focus and refusal to wade into the debate.

President Zuma argued that Caster’s gender verification request had gone beyond what is reasonable and had infringed her dignity as a person – in particular the leakage of the IAAF verification request to the media.

"It is one thing to seek to ascertain whether or not an athlete has an unfair advantage over others - but it is another to publicly humiliate an honest professional and competent athlete." President Zuma had said.

And for pointing out that Caster was treated in a humiliating manner – and recognizing the need to allow due process - one need not be apologetic to say that President Zuma’s intervention indicated a smarter person than one often made out to be. Or at the very least – one who is as smart as you and me.

The President’s remarks triggered further countless debates. Some even suggested Zuma’s usual “be nice to all" enigmatic behavior was just a strange character flaw – that his words and deeds regarding the Caster-sex furore were irrational.

Irrational or not - President Zuma’s comments must be understood in the context of the dangerous - often fatal stakes of political leadership in South Africa and it should be said - in many other parts of the world – where racial and gender tolerance remain weak. It was critical to carefully orchestrate the debate away from the divisive racial and ill-informed gender rhetoric that seemed to dominate radio – TV and newspaper columns. And succeed President Zuma did - at least judging by media narratives that later ensured.

The controversy has been steered away from racial and intersex misrepresentations – ushering more nuanced conversations regarding the idea of non-binary gender.

Needless to say - contrary to the buzz and allegations of intrigue- gender testing is very common – particularly in athletics. Further - gender testing – though not conclusive - is certainly not based on how masculine or feminine someone looks or sounds - as been suggested by others.

And while the story of Caster Semenya is still being written – South Africa owes ANC’s Julius Malema a biscuit for stating that there is a much-needed and meaningful discussion to be had about sports development in South Africa - and that it was wrong to treat South Africa’s latest golden girl as an object of international derision and not as a person who harbors feelings like all of us. Yet still – mistreatment not withstanding – it was not right for anyone to inflame an already terrible mistake by the IAAF – that of disclosing the ‘gender probe’ to the media – in the process infringing on Caster’s privacy.

Obama and the Gates – Crowley saga: Putting a colorless sock on it

By Tula Dlamini

Professor Henry Louis Gates Jr - a respected African-American scholar was briefly handcuffed like a common criminal by Cambridge police officer James Crowley after his neighbor Lucia Whalen reported seeing "two males with backpacks" trying to gain access to a home. Gates - returning home from a trip overseas - and his driver were contending with a stuck front door.

The story hit headlines and all coverage seemed to point to a single conclusion: US race relations remain complex despite progress since the 1960s.

Cambridge Police Department reports - authored by Sergeant James Crowley and Officer James Figueroa - quote an irate Gates yelling - "This is what happens to black men in America! -" and - when asked by Crowley to speak with him outside the residence - Gates replied - "ya - I'll speak with your mama outside." The 68 year old Gates denies making the alleged remarks.


Sgt. Crowley filed a disorderly conduct charge against Prof. Gates – which was quickly dropped by prosecutors.

The uproar was huge. Even President Barack Obama - who traditionally has tried hard to rise above the racial fray - created a fire storm when in response to a question - said the Cambridge police had "acted stupidly" in their arrest of Gates.

With those comments – some fire fighting was inevitable.

At an ensuing press conference - Obama said he spoke with the officer who arrested Gates and told him that he understood his previous words left “an impression that I was maligning the Cambridge police department -” an impression he did not want to make. He then suggested the two men resolve the matter over a few beers at the White House.

Eventually Obama sat down for a photo opportunity on 30 July 2009 at the Rose Garden - with the two men in question. He must have hoped for at least two things; that the significance of the meeting would be a "positive lesson" in a national dialogue on race and also to put behind his comments about the racially charged incident.

News media ran amok with trivial descriptions of the meeting – which included details of snacks consumed - while others pontificated about the types of beer sipped by the men.

Gates who was originally scheduled for the Jamaican Red Stripe ended up having a Samuel Adams Light – a beer named after the legendary Samuel Adams – an American statesman and philosopher in colonial Massachusetts. Adams died in 1803 as a leader of the movement that became the American Revolution, and was one of the architects of the principles that shaped the political culture of the United States. Adams had critics like Ralph Harlow who characterized him as a "neurotic crank" driven by an "inferiority complex".

The reports were almost mute on issues relating to the 911 call that led Sgt. Crowley to arrest Prof. Gates on disorderly conduct charges.

Asked about the president's contribution to the meeting - Sgt. Crowley said: "He provided the beer". News agencies and online social networks - including Reuters and Twitter blogs - characterized Obama as the bartender-in-chief at a "beer summit" of the main players - Prof. Gates Jr. and police officer James Crowley”.

I suspect what Sgt. Crowley did not say is that - ‘tongue in cheek’ - Obama told he and Prof. Gates to ‘put a sock on it’ – that they were being so noisy as to ‘inflame racial hatred’ –distracting America from focusing on the immediate social and economic issues – including health care and the unfolding global economic meltdown. Of-course - ‘putting a sock’ in whatever was causing the ‘noise’ would cool it down – but only for a while.

The President so far

President Barack Obama displayed rare leadership on the Gates-Crowley issue. In spite of the rant from some circles - only an honest and self-assured person can fess up to the fact that racial profiling still exists in America and that indeed - the practice will remain a ‘big issue’ in the American logic for much longer.

While noting that social attitudes continue to shift for the better with regard to race – I have seen 'non-whites' treated differently by both ‘black and white’ police. I have witnessed the trend at airports where non-whites get pulled out of line for additional security checks or get hassled at passport control – though I must admit in my limited visits to the US – I have not experienced personally this kind of maltreatment.

Yet still, disturbing US survey figures confirm that a third of black high school students end up in jail and never graduate from college - while the average poverty rate among African-American communities is 25%. Social scientists disagree about who to blame for these failures: social trends - history or the general failure of black leadership. Meanwhile - the culture of distrust between black and white borders on antipathy – with remarks that black racism against whites is now "the real problem".

The fact that this incident has received so much media attention - Obama said “is a testimony to the fact that these are issues that are still very sensitive here in America … Because of our history - because of the difficulties of the past - you know - African Americans are sensitive to these issues.”

Interestingly - much as the above remarks have earned Obama the ‘reverse racism’ charge - others going as far as predicting his descent into oblivion - the opposite is also likely – that Obama is probably the best chance America has to heal the wounds of the past.

Those who continue to discredit Obama could be ‘missing the boat’ and perhaps should take the advice from the blogger who predicts: The Wall of Shame will contain their names - for their children to remember - and scorn them for failure to recognize the ‘golden opportunity’ Obama presents for America to turn way from its horrific racial past.

Racism in America has been around for so long and Prof. Gates is right when he says ‘it is so wrong’. Sadly - the demons of that past will continue to haunt Obama as he tries to maintain his political upper-hand - particularly the endorsement by white men and women - without whom - Obama could not have won the presidential election. According to a Pew Research Centre poll - Obama's job approval rating fell from 61 percent in mid-June to 54 percent in July - in part due to his handling of the Gates-Crowley situation.

A glimpse into President Jacob Zuma's inauguration

The day is 9 May 2009. I am at the heart of excitement in South Africa. I arrive in Pretoria around 3.30am and despite the cold and rain - the streets are lined with security and people wanting to be part of President Jacob Zuma’s Inauguration.

Broadcast and other media crews are getting set up at the Union Buildings. The official ceremony will take place at the Amphitheatre. Although this open-air space is sizeable – it is enough to take only 5000 invited guests. Further down the Union Buildings is a lawn ground and there – over 30 000 people are expected.

Roads will be closed from 4am for most of the day. Hundreds are already in the cue at the Rietondale sports ground – about three kilometers from the ceremony venue. From here – everyone is transported on buses – manned by armed personnel.

Dignitaries pour in despite a sudden downpour of rain. It is cold. I am shivering but few are perturbed by the rain and sooner volunteers bring umbrellas for the media teams filed on the entrance used by the dignitaries.

Among the most glamorous dignitaries are President Zuma’s three wives – two of whom arrive on the same vehicle. The presidential spouses trigger great interest among journalists. The same goes for the more than 30 mainly African heads of state – who include former Presidents Nelson Mandela - Thabo Mbeki -the controversial but popular President of Zimbabwe - Robert Mugabe and his newly appointed Prime Minister - Morgan Tsvangirai.

Also present are newly elected members of parliament – premiers - presiding officers of Parliament – diplomats – representatives of multilateral bodies such as the United Nations - Southern African Development Community- as well as local and international business and community leaders. The African Union is represented by none other than the current chairperson – Colonel Maummar Gadaffi of Libya.

Notably absent are military leaders from Mauritania - New Guinea and Madagascar – all of whom have usurped power in their countries through the barrel of a gun. Also conspicuously absent is the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for al- Bashir’s arrest in March 2009 - accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan. It is as well that he has stayed away from South Africa as the government would have had to arrest him for alleged war crimes.

Eventually - President-elect Jacob Zuma hits the red carpet – accompanied by lady number one – his very first wife - Sizakele Khumalo. The national army Generals and Admirals greet Zuma at the entrance.

Whispers abound among the guests. Traditionalists speak of Zulu mythology concerning rain. In the Zulu tradition - it is a good sign to experience none-violent rain during an important event.

It is time for the ceremony to begin and a strange thing happens. The rain stops as though on cue and a waxing sun graces the occasion.

Before the presidential oath – Zuma is conferred with the Order of Mapungubwe by outgoing President Kgalema Motlanthe. This Order is awarded to South African citizens for excellence and exceptional achievement. Past winners include Sydney Brenner in 2005 for putting South Africa on the international map in the field of medicine - Claire Penn for linguistics excellence - Sibusiso Sibisi for his achievements in the field of information technology - Valerie Mizrahi in the field of biochemistry and molecular biology.

After a series of procedural routines - Zuma takes the takes the oath and with this gesture - the leader of the African National Congress officially becomes South Africa's new president.

President Zuma’s reconciliatory speech is heard over loudspeakers as crowd stands in contemplative silence punctuated by the occasional cheer.

Then it is time for the National Salute - observed by Zuma as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

Zuma is greeted by the National Ceremonial Guard - a 21-gun salute - a flight by four helicopters of the South African Air Force (SAAF) - a precision massed fly past by aircraft of the SAAF - and a display by the Silver Falcons - all operated by the most accomplished and senior civilian and military pilots.

There is the Rooivalk - Afrikaans for ‘Red Kestrel'. The craft is part of a project to build SA’s first indigenous attack helicopter which began in 1984. The first flight of the first prototype was in 1990. According to Noseweek publication - the Rooivalk has been used in SA’s peacekeeping operations in Sudan.

There is the Gripen - South Africa's newest fighter - a brand new multi-role jet manufactured by Sweden. On 18 July 2006 - the first of the SAAF’s new Gripen two-seat multi-role fighter jets took to African skies for the first time.

The Light Fixed Wing Formation took on the sky led by craft mainly utilised for commuting and casualty evacuation. There is also craft often used in Maritime operations - aerial reconnaissance - electronic warfare - navigator training and airborne command and control.

The presidential jet – Inkwazi – adds to the day’s aura – saluting its primary passenger. The aircraft is fitted with long-range fuel tanks - which allow for a non-stop ferry to Europe.

The South African Air Forces trainer craft steal the day with the diamond showcase. Making up the rear of the Diamond is the South African Air Force Formation conducted by the Aerobatic Team - the Silver Falcons in beautiful colours representing both the Air Force and the Country. These aircraft have been in service of the SAAF for 45 years.

South Africa’s military influence is evident on the final formation - the Combat Formation - made up of four Gripens and five Hawks. The Gripen is the Air Force’s new high tech fighter aircraft. This asset - enabled in part by information technology – affords a competitive war-fighting advantage. The Hawk compliments the effort - holistically designed to train fighter pilots for a smooth transition to Gripen. All aircrew and technical personnel are reportedly satisfied with the latest acquisition of the Gripen and Hawk - all part of the famed ‘arms deal’.

All this military power brings with it huge leadership responsibility. So far – many say SA’s intent remains unquestionable – buttressed significantly by the appointment of the highly respected - scholarly and experienced Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu – to the position of Minister of Defense.

As soon as the official ceremony concludes - music blasts over loudspeakers. President Zuma subsequently walks down to the people who have watched the ceremony on TV screens from lawns below the Amphitheatre. After a short speech – a huge concert kicks in. There are several more concerts and parties planned throughout the day and evening.

It is truly a historical occasion.

Somali Piracy: What are the lessons?

By Tula Dlamini

There are lessons to be learnt from Somalia’s piracy problem. First – lawlessness not only gives rise to criminals - it also prepares ground for the exploitation of a country’s resources by stronger powers. Second - defending human security by firm means need not be limited to application of force.

The ‘bloody’ 2009 Easter Sunday is my talking point. Ostensibly – in self-defense - US Navy snipers – known as the SEALS - rescued the captain unhurt but in the process killed three Somali hijackers – triggering an array of media shock and outrage. While the event marked a dramatic end to the attempted hijack of the U.S.-flagged Maersk Alabama – it has also become a source of renewed displeasure towards US foreign policy and no doubt potential extremism.



The surgical rescue operation pitied the world’s most powerful navy – against a small band of Somali gun trotters – armed with a mishmash of high and low-tech paraphernalia - utilizing satellite phones - guns and rocket-propelled grenades - wobbly wooden ladders and small worn-out fishing boats – sometimes towed by hijacked "mother ships."

However - in spite of the much fêted US rescue mission - hardly 24 hours later –– hijackers stepped up the seizure of ships along the coast of Somalia - highlighting the challenge facing U.S. President Barack Obama as he vows to curb the region's growing pirate threat.

Tip of the iceberg

Obama has vowed to "halt the rise of piracy" and the Pentagon says it is developing anti-pirate measures in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden- the transit route for 40 percent of the world's oil. What the US administration is yet to mention – if at all - is the fact that the US Maersk Alabama hijack drama represents a tip of the iceberg - which must be viewed in the context of widespread ‘criminal’ activities conducted by Somali gangs – but also by ‘bogus’ ships from countries as far flung as South Korea - Japan and Spain. These illegal ships evade international maritime rules - often flying flags of expediency from sea-friendly nations – and sometimes paying corrupt Somali ministers or warlords for protection or to secure fake licenses. It is a vicious practice which sustains piracy in Somalia and consequently - the current civil war.

Somalia’s 3-330 km (2-000 miles) of coastline — the longest in continental Africa is abuzz with foreign vessels from around the world – some illegally dumping ‘toxic waste’ and others competing for fishing stocks with the country's own poorly-equipped fishermen. Peter Lehr - editor of Violence at Sea: Piracy in the Age of Global Terrorism says the first ‘pirate’ gangs emerged in the '90s to protect against these foreign trawlers.

“The names of existing pirate fleets - such as the National Volunteer Coastguard of Somalia or Somali Marines - are testament to the pirates' initial motivations”.

At stake is a particularly rich patch for tuna - sardines and mackerel - and other profitable species of seafood - including lobsters and sharks.


Sugule Ali- a local Somali “pirate” - told the New York Times in 2008;

“We consider sea bandits those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard.”

A 2005 United Nations Environmental Program report - citing local complaints- noted the waste had resulted in far higher than normal cases of respiratory infections- mouth ulcers and bleeding- abdominal hemorrhages and unusual skin infections among many inhabitants of the areas around the northeastern towns of Hobbio and Benadir on the coast of the Indian Ocean. At the time of the report - it cost $2.50 per ton for a European company to dump these types of materials off the Horn of Africa - as opposed to $250 per ton to dispose of them cleanly in Europe.

Pandora’s Box

Merit not withstanding - the killing of 3 hijackers by the US Navy on Easter Sunday – is a definite ‘pandora’s box’ if you ask me. The trial in New York - of the 16-year-old Abdi Wali Abdulqadir Muse– a pirate who surrendered during the dramatic rescue of the American captain of the Maersk Alabama - is likely to raise other violations of maritime regulations committed by foreign ships. This is the view expressed by Ron Kuby - a New York-based civil rights lawyer who is said be in discussions about forming a legal team to represent the Somali suspect.

”I think in this particular case - there’s a grave question as to whether America was in violation of principles of truce in warfare on the high seas -” said Kuby. ”This man seemed to come onto the Bainbridge under a flag of truce to negotiate. He was then captured.”

Piracy is currently Somalia’s only growth industry and indications are that Somali hijack gangs have increased their range and have started attacking ships as far south as off the coast of Kenya in the Indian Ocean. This explains how teenage Muse ended up on the Maersk Alabama hundred miles off the coast of Somalia. There will be allegations and counter-allegations – making difficult to tell the difference between the wood and the trees. Media reports say the teenager will be the first person to face piracy charges in the US in over a century.

The US already has draft resolution calling upon countries that have naval capacities to deploy vessels and aircraft to actively fight against piracy in the region. The position buttresses another UN Security Council resolution on 20 November 2008 - proposed by Britain to introduce tougher sanctions against Somalia over the country's failure to prevent a surge in sea piracy. On 14 January 2009 – a contact group on piracy was established under a UN Security Council Resolution to coordinate actions among states and organizations to contain piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Participating countries include Australia- China- Denmark- Djibouti- Egypt- France- Germany- Greece- India- Italy- Japan- Kenya- South Korea- The Netherlands- Oman- Russia- Saudi Arabia- Somalia TFG- Spain- Turkey- United Arab Emirates- United Kingdom- United States and Yemen.

The naval power stationed off the coast of Somalia includes almost every major navy in the world – half of which are nations engaged in fishing in the Indian Ocean with a vested interest in deterring piracy. It is however discomforting that to date – piracy is practically on the increase.

In 2008 the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation reported 111 attacks which included 42 successful hijackings – and in all these cases – there were no reports of any hostage executions.

For now - pirates are crying ‘wolf’. "The American liars have killed our friends after they agreed to free the hostage without ransom... this matter will lead to retaliation and we will hunt down particularly American citizens traveling our waters-" AFP quoted Abdi Garad as saying by phone from the pirate lair of Eyl.

There is no denying the presence of naval forces has helped fend off several pirate attacks. Nonetheless – piracy scholars such as Christopher Jasparroit - Associate Professor - National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College – argue that the international response to piracy has been less of a success than reports make it out to be.

“In fact – international response masks deeper problems of unfairness in international economic order and local governance” - says Jasparroit - adding that more is needed, including action that addresses the deeper issues in Somalia – primarily the lack of economic growth and good governance. He deplores the evident snub to UN Secretary General - Ban Ki-moon’s appeal to 50 countries for broader assistance aimed at finding a lasting solution to the Somali crises. Beyond naval support – nothing else has come from these countries.

NB. All images by google

The ghetto grapevine - the farce and the irony

By Tula Dlamini

"Politics - noun. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." —Ambrose Bierce - The Devil's Dictionary

Part irony and part farce – the Zuma prosecution has become a source of some extremely bizarre allegations and counter allegations of political intrigue - constant grief for Zuma’s family and friends and a rallying point for several political groupings – mostly those who strive primarily on the misfortunes of the ruling ANC.

Several South African opposition parties and civil society groups openly oppose the decision to withdraw charges against Zuma. At the forefront is the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). In the party’s application to the North Gauteng High Court – the DA said ‘the decision whether or not to prosecute Zuma should have been determined by a court and not by the NPA’

Party leader Helen Zille lodged an application asking the court to review - correct and set aside the NPA the decision. The party also asked the court to declare that the NPA decision was inconsistent with the constitution and invalid.

At the time of writing this blog - Zille’s spirited attempts were venomously discredited among Zuma’s supporters – ridiculed as ranting by a racist ‘white’ woman who is subconsciously contemptuous of ‘black leadership’. The ANC Youth league questioned why in 2005 - Zille had not reacted in a similar manner regarding a similar decision by the NPA – involving Sir Mark Thatcher – son of former British Prime Minister – Margaret Thatcher.

Mark pleaded guilty to the NPA for violating South Africa's anti-mercenary laws – but never had his day in court. Instead - the NPA released him on the strength that they felt it unlikely they would win a conviction in court – this despite earlier comments that there was a "watertight case" against Mark. How is it that the decision regarding Mark did not register any outrage from any of the groups who now condemn the Zuma charge withdrawal – including Zille? Perhaps – it is because Mark – unlike Zuma – was not running for the country’s presidency.

Could it be – therefore - that the ongoing ‘farce’ about the withdrawal of Zuma charges - borders on ‘interests’ and not ‘principle’? Zille is one of the 40 candidates that are campaigning for the country’s presidency at polls due on 22 April 2009.

The substantive merits of case notwithstanding - why would anyone insist on the continuation of this expensive but clearly bungled prosecution – more so at a time when the country is evidently on the throes of a recession? So far the state expenses associated with the Zuma trial currently stand at slightly more than R100 million – enough to build about 500 low-cost houses for the poor or provide free complete primary education to at least no less than 10 000 under-privileged kids.

This is why the call to reverse the NPA decision is definitely controversial – and certainly - bad news for the desperately poor.

Perhaps the African proverb ought to apply in this instance. “A person whose house is on fire does not go hunting for a rat”. Thus – one could say that Zuma’s remarks concerning his adversaries in the corruption case exemplified rare leadership. He said he did not want revenge against the people who had wronged him.

"We have a country to run, not individuals to chase," he told a televised media briefing.

Zuma said; "Retribution will not take us anywhere. Now is the time for us to focus on improving people's lives.

"We want to put this episode behind us, and focus on our priorities; education, health, rural development, the fight against crime and creating decent jobs despite the economic meltdown.

One hopes this was not ‘gallery-speak’ from a seasoned politician – not least because the current political paralysis arising from the ‘Arms deal’ prosecution charade can only result into further economic uncertainty.

Recall that despite the fact that South Africa experienced massive economic growth during the Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki’s presidential terms - social development has been slower than expected. As at the end of Mbeki’s presidency during the fourth quarter of 2008 - Statistics SA put unemployment figures at 21.9% - though some unofficial figures put it as high as 42%. The same year - between 4.9 and 6.6 million of South Africa's approximately 48 million people of all ages carried HIV - the virus that causes AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). The economic migration into South Africa from poorer countries compounded the problem – resulting in tensions amongst the poor – which in turn triggered an unprecedented orgy of xenophobic violence.

As South Africans go to the polls on 22 April 2009 - cost of living has increased - the economy has stagnated and the country’s reputation as a fertile investment ground for foreign companies is in doubt.

The hard won democratic space in South Africa must be preserved. However - a complete shift in the mode of politics is required. For now – most social and political groups – wittingly or unwittingly - embrace Groucho Marx’ art of politics – “looking for trouble - finding it everywhere - diagnosing it incorrectly - and applying the wrong remedies”. It cannot be right!

Jacob Zuma: The ‘Pawn’ checkmates the ‘King’

By Tula Dlamini

Let me start by making a proviso. First - I support the decision by South Africa’s National Prosecution Agency (NPA) - officially dropping the 16 corruption charges against the President of the African National Congress - Jacob Zuma. The charges relate to contracts and subcontracts in what has become known as the ‘Arms Deal’. Second – I am journalist and not a lawyer – and thus accept my diagnosis of the issue below could be far-fetched.

However – it is perhaps worth highlighting that my ‘novice’ endorsement of the NPA decision resonates with an earlier verdict by Judge Chris Nicholson of the KwaZulu-Natal bench – who - on 12 September 2008 - declared the prosecution of Zuma for corruption and related charges was unlawful. In issuing his verdict - the learned judge said the following:

“For years- the applicant (Zuma) has been under threat of prosecution for serious corruption and yet never brought to trial. There is a ring of the works of Kafka about this”.

Former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki and the NPA disagreed and appealed against the verdict.

Background to the ‘imaginary’ chess contest

For the onlooker enjoying the comfort of hindsight- the alarm bells of political intrigue were loud and clear in the form of a collection of seemingly unrelated events – all involving Jacob Zuma.

For those unaware of Zuma’s illustrious liberation struggle credentials – his chief qualification for becoming South Africa’s deputy-president in 1999 was unquestionable loyalty and an acknowledged lack of desire to succeed his boss – former president Thabo Mbeki. According to this otherwise flawed analysis – Zuma – a self professed servant of the ANC - was a ‘pawn’ at the behest of the ‘king’- the then ANC president Thabo Mbeki.

Cynicism turned into panic - and in some quarters - absolute disapproval – when in April 2001 - front pages of almost all South African newspapers headlined with allegations made by the late State Security Minister - Steve Tshwete - that there was a plot to harm the then president Thabo Mbeki. Alongside the plot accused - Zuma’s name was mentioned – including that of former president Nelson Mandela and three prominent businessmen – namely; Mathews Phosa- Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa - all respected members of the ANC and former presidential aspirants and therefore potential rivals of Mbeki.

The 'King's knight' guns for the 'pawn'

On 23 August 2003 – Bulelani Ngcuka - Mbeki’s chosen National Director of Prosecutions announced at a press conference that Jacob Zuma – then deputy president – had a corruption case to answer relating to the ‘Arms Deal’. Ngcuka added that ‘Zuma would however not be prosecuted because the case was not winnable’. Many questioned Ngcuka’s motive of accusing Zuma in public without the benefit of a trial.

In 2005 – Zuma’s friend and financial advisor – Shabir Shaik was convicted of fraud and corruption in a case related to subcontracts to the ‘Arms Deal’. Judge Hillary Squires concluded there was a mutually benefitial rapport between Zuma and Shaik. Squires implicitly accused Zuma of having received benefits from the ‘Arms Deal’ using Shaik’s companies and partners.

Fired

At the close of Shaik’s case – Mbeki asked Zuma to quit his job without the benefit of a trial. Zuma refused – insisting he was innocent and asking for his day in court. Mbeki opted to fire him even before subjecting him to any legal trial.

To add pain to injury – when Mbeki relieved Zuma of his post – he appointed as replacement – none other than the then Minister of Mineral Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka - wife of Bulelani Ngcuka – the man whom Zuma had accused of plotting the NPA charges.

Allegations of rape

Against the backdrop of a feud between Mbeki and Zuma – on 2 November 2005 - an investigation began into charges that Zuma had raped the 31 years old daughter of a deceased ANC stalwart at his home in Forest Town, Johannesburg. Charges were formally filed n the morning of 6 December 2005.

On 8 May 2006 – Judge Willem van der Merwe acquitted Zuma of the sole charge of rape. Delivering judgment – the learned Judge said the state had not proven the case beyond reasonable doubt.

Referring to the contradictory versions of the events of the night of 2 November 2005 - the judge maintained - "the probabilities favour the accused's version". He said Zuma would not have risked forcing himself on the woman when his own daughter was in the house and police were on guard outside - who would have heard the accused if she had cried out.

Special ‘Browse’ Mole Report

In 2006 – the same year that Zuma’s rape trial ended with an acquittal - the Directorate of Special Operation (DSO) produced a ‘Top Secret’ document known as the Special ‘Browse’ Mole Consolidated Report. The said report leaked to the South African public in 2007.

The report considered extremely inflammatory by the South African parliament – contains political intelligence and numerous allegations and unsubstantiated statements about prominent political figures in South Africa and leaders in African continent.

In essence - the document begins with a conclusion that the former Deputy President Jacob Zuma was involved in a conspiracy – which it says was a threat to the sovereignty and integrity of the South African State. The extract from the introduction reads as follows:

“The conclusion reached as a result of the present browse- is that there are strong indications that former Deputy President Jacob Zuma’s presidential ambitions are fuelled and sustained by a conspiracy playing out both inside South Africa and on the African continental stage”.

The document further implicates groupings like the South African Communist Party - the ANC Youth League - the SACP’s Youth League and Cosatu – who it portrays as seemingly disaffected from the presidency of Thabo Mbeki. The document further alleges that elements within the Security and Intelligence Services appear to be considering the subversion of the apparatus of State in support of a Zuma presidency.

According to the document - the former Chief of the South African Nation Defense Force (SANDF) - Siphiwe Nyanda allegedly raised the issue of possible alignment of the military in support of Zuma - as well as the possibility of a military coup to force President Mbeki to stand down - possibly with foreign military assistance. Zuma’s supporters are portrayed as having powerful links in the South African intelligence community – supported by a select group of senior Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) leaders that are now part of the general staff of the SANDF

On the continental level – the document makes the claim that several Heads of State and leaders of African politico/military groupings - apparently alienated by South Africa’s perceived pre-eminence in the African Union and especially in Nepad - appear to be providing both funding and support to Zuma’s cause.

More specifically - the document portrays the President of Angola- Eduardo Dos Santos and Libya’s Muammar Kaddafi as giving support to the Zuma conspiracy. It alleges a $3 - $5 million financial support by the Libyan government - facilitated by the SACP Secretary General- Blade Nzimande - towards “promotion of a street level revolution in South Africa - in support of Zuma’s political aspirations.”

The document concludes with recommendations to pursue investigations via the South African Reserve bank to establish transactions that may affect the matter. It calls for briefing of appropriate agencies to investigate all allegations contained in the report. It characterizes the “Zuma camp” at one level as a broad front of the discontent- while at another level as a conspiratorial co-ordination whose players needed urgent identification and appropriate action taken.

On 30 May 2007 - the National Security Council appointed an Investigative Task Team - to investigate the leaked document. Perhaps it is useful here to highlight that the tapes - which became subject to the NPA decision to withdraw charges against Zuma - arose from the ‘Browse’ Mole Report investigations. The recordings were part of tapes obtained legally by intelligence agencies while probing an inflammatory spy document of the now defunct Scorpions.

The Scorpions disbanded following recommendations of the parliamentary committee investigating the matter. The unit had no intelligence service mandate and that they relied on private intelligence – the parliamentary committee pointed out in its submissions.

The “Browse Mole” report made headlines in 2006 after it leaked to the public – also finding its way to Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi in May 2007.

Daggers drawn

From the 16th to 20 December 2007 – the ANC held its 52nd national conference in Polokwane. The race for the party presidency was the highlight. Mob-like scenes and bitterness dominated the party conference – epitomized by acrimony between the only two leadership candidates – Zuma and Mbeki. The media dubbed the event "The Battle for Succession".

Zuma won the hearts of the majority of the more than 4,000 delegates – soundly toppling Mbeki. As ANC president – Zuma would automatically become the party’s presidential candidate in the April 2009 polls – the date on which Mbeki’s term was due to expire.

Zuma's defeat of the incumbent president Thabo Mbeki for leadership of the party brought up the notion of ‘two centres of power’ – leading to speculation of a perceived split between the Mbeki -led government administration and the Zuma led ANC.

Political vendetta alleged

On 28 December 2007 – hardly two weeks after the watershed Polokwane conference - the NPA recharged Zuma - now ANC president - with 18 counts including fraud – corruption - racketeering and money laundering. The NPA action instantly led to allegations of a political vendetta - suffice to say - triggering the beginning of an end for Mbeki’s role in the ANC.

On 4 August 2008 - Zuma asked the High Court to set aside the NPA’s decision to prosecute him and to declare it invalid. He was successful in his bid.

Delivering his verdict - Judge Nicholson inferred that some state actors were guilty of serious violations of the constitution approximating criminal intent – saying there was evidence they had ‘interfered’ with the independent functions of the NPA. He further pointed out that:

”The timing of the indictment (of Zuma) by Mr. Mpshe on 28 December 2007, after the President suffered a political defeat at Polokwane was most unfortunate”.

Mbeki appealed to the Constitutional Court - arguing that the Judge Nicholson's findings were "highly prejudicial to himself - both in his capacity as head of state supporters saw the move as an attempt to re-charge their leader -‘via the back and head of the national executive - as well as in his personal capacity" – Zuma’s door’. The spectre of a case - previously struck off the roll due to what Judge Nicholson had described as unreasonable delays was now real.

The ‘King’ under siege

On 21 September 2008 the ruling ANC unceremoniously withdrew former President Thabo Mbeki from office – a mere seven months before his time. Yet in all this - ANC party insiders confirm Zuma exhibited great maturity. Despite his own sacking as deputy President on South Africa by Thabo Mbeki and subsequent prosecution – remarkably - Zuma was opposed to the ousting of Mbeki before his office term but the majority in the ANC national executive committee insisted on Mbeki’s removal.

In the context of the current global economic meltdown and owing to the massive development challenges faced by South Africa - the manner in which Mbeki – despite his unquestionable intellect and sterling contribution to post apartheid South Africa - got the boot - was indeed a tragic display of party infighting - or - was it simply a case of the ‘pawn’ checkmating the ‘king’?

Mbeki had earlier appealed to the Constitutional Court. In his court submissions - Mbeki argued that he was not part of the hearing that informed Judge Nicholson’s findings. Observers had a field day talking about this twist of irony – pointing to the fact that Mbeki had earlier fired Zuma under similar circumstances – based on findings arrived at without duly consulting Zuma. In this logic – ‘what was good for the goose was not necessarily good for the gander’.

The Constitutional Court dismissed Mbeki's appeal. All eight Constitutional Court judges agreed that it was "not in the interests of justice to hear Mbeki's application at this stage"- adding that the decision was ‘due to the fact that the NPA was in the process of appealing the same judgment in the Supreme Court of Appeal.

Celebrations in the Zuma camp were short-lived. On 28 November 2008 – the Supreme Court heard the NPA appeal at which hearing - overturned Judge Nicholson’s ruling - that technically exposing Zuma to further prosecution. Judge Louis Harms read out the findings in a nationally televised hearing - saying the lower court had "overstepped the limits of its authority" by hinting at political interference in the case.

Checkmate?

In a surprise turn-around on 6 April 2009- with more than R100 million spent by the State in an attempt to prosecute Zuma- acting National Director of Public Prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe announced the NPA was dropping all the Zuma charges – citing an abuse of process by the former head of the Directorate of Special Operations (DSO)- Leonard McCarthy.

Mpshe said Zuma’s lawyers had made serious allegations about the alleged manipulation of the NPA - substantiated by recordings of telephone conversations. The lawyers planned to use the said recordings in court during Zuma’s permanent stay of prosecution application. According to the NPA - the tapes were secured legally by intelligence agencies while probing an inflammatory ‘Browse Mole’ document of the now defunct Scorpions. With that – the NPA opted to withdraw its charges.

Following the NPA decision – on 7 April 2009 - the Durban High Court subsequently endorsed the NPA decision.

Additional Note:

We have witnessed in the ANC – what students of dialectical materialism call ‘the unity and conflict of opposites’. Conflict in this sense represents a source of ‘progress.’ Put differently – the reconcilable contradictions within the ANC represent the natural tensions between the ‘thesis’ (dominant theory) and the ‘antithesis’ (views that are alternate to the dominant theory). This blog is a humble attempt at arriving at a synthesis. According to dialectical science – this is how awareness evolves.

Retired Archbishop Desmond Tutu Emeritus and leading human rights campaigner - may have expressed his disdain of a possible Zuma presidency – however – he is also on record for suggesting that God’s standards are very low. “You will be surprised at some of the people you find in heaven” – Tutu once told an attentive crowd.