Compiled by Tula Dlamini
Sources: UNISOM; UNIMIS; African Union; World Bank Report 2010; IMF 2009; UN Development Index 2010; Huffington Post; ICC; Reuters; World Fact Book; CPA Agreement; Sudan Tribune; Al Jazeera; Amnesty International; Pambuzuka
Overview
The 17th African Union Summit takes place from 23 June to 1 July 2011 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. The Summit takes place in the context of large scale political disaffection, particularly among youths in Africa who have responded through active participation in protests against their governments.
Youth in Africa are unique in having a legal instrument dedicated to them, namely the Youth Charter (2006), which came into force in 2009, and has been signed by 38 and ratified by 24 of 53 member states.
African leaders understand that the continent’s greatest resource is its youthful population and that through their active and full participation - Africans can face up to the difficulties that lie ahead. Commitments have already been made towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, there is reason to be concerned about the general condition of young people in Africa, many of whom are marginalized from mainstream society through inequalities in income, wealth and power, unemployment and underemployment, infected and affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, living in situations of poverty and hunger, experiencing illiteracy and poor quality educational systems, restricted access to health services and to information, exposure to violence including gender violence, engaging in armed conflicts and experiencing various forms of discrimination. These are some of the issues that will likely be discussed at the upcoming 17th Summit of AU in Equatorial Guinea.
The Summit will also discuss peace and security in Africa broadly.
Over and above the unfolding security developments in Libya, Sudan, Somalia and Ivory Coast, critics have questioned the rationale of hosting the summit in Equatorial Guinea arguing that the context of Equatorial Guinea today could not be further from the values and principles of the African Union. They say the government is spending more on the summit than it does on education and health per year combined.
In the last few weeks, over 100 students and political opposition leaders have been arrested.
But perhaps, most damming for Equatorial Guinea is the fact the country has ratified less than 12 of over 100 of the AU’s treaties.
Analysts are asking the question whether the time has come for some minimum standards for hosting a Presidency and the summit.
Youth in Africa - Key facts:
1. Close to half of the population in Africa falls between the ages of 15 and 24, within the scope of youth as defined by the African Youth Charter.
2. Three in five youth are unemployed
3. Three quarters live below the poverty line of less than US 1$ a day.
4. Most governments in African countries do have youth policies that aim to empower youth. These policies in most cases go un-accompanied by costed-Action Plans for monitoring and accountability.
5. Various programmes targeted at youth are offered by governments and also by civil society. However, these programmes are largely uncoordinated due to weak frameworks on linkages of youth development to broader development objectives; consequently it has been difficult to account for inputs, outcomes and impact for these programmes
6. Few countries have established Ministries which are charged with the responsibility of youth affairs. However, these ministries do not have an adequate structure that reaches the lowest level-districts, and in most cases these ministries are under staffed, and more than often unequipped with technical capacity in working with a youth analysis framework.
7. Most of these Administrative structures do not receive adequate funding from governments resources to effectively implement youth empowerment programmes.
Implications
Economic disaffection fuels political disaffection and reduces the potential for active citizen engagement during and in between elections.
African Union position on Youth Development
Youth in Africa are unique in having a legal instrument dedicated to them, namely the Youth Charter (2006), which came into force in 2009, and has been signed by 38 and ratified by 24 of 53 member states.
The Charter calls for the following key elements:
• promotion of active youth participation in all aspects of development and at all levels;
• the formulation of a comprehensive national youth policy and programmes informed by consultation with youth and resourced adequately;
• collation and provision of accurate data on youth including employment, unemployment, and underemployment;
• creation of an enabling environment for youth entrepreneurship, and provision of quality and appropriate reproductive health services and access to treatment, among others.
According to the State of the Union Report of 2010, which tracks the implementation of continental standards and instruments, unlike the modest progress recorded in the case of children; Africa’s youth have seen more new policies and programmes that target their livelihoods, civic participation.
National youth policies were passed in Ghana (2007), Nigeria (2007), Kenya (2008) and South Africa (2009) aimed at promoting employment, social protection schemes and youth funds. Rwanda has even provided for two youth seats in their Chamber of Deputies.
High Level Panel on Financing for Youth Development
The issue of youth has been discussed at the level of the AU, particularly in the wake of the North African crises, wherein the 275th Peace and Security Council meeting called for the need to provide the youth with economic opportunity and avenues for greater participation in political decision making to avoid undue discontent. A High Level Panel on Financing for Youth Development was established which called for the following;
1. To the African Union Member States:
• Endorse, mobilize, and allocate resources for the Medium Term Priorities for the Plan of Action for the African Youth Decade
• Enact age specific standards and quotas for youth in parliament and appointment to government positions
• Pass laws to ensure opportunities for youth in private and public companies
• Facilitate and create mechanisms for Diaspora youth to contribute to development efforts
2. To the African Union Commission (AUC):
• Utilize the APRM and NEPAD to monitor and report on the implementation of the Charter
PEACE AND SECURITY
Equatorial Guinea
Risk for a revolt is high in Equatorial Guinea ahead of the 17th Heads of State African Union summit due on 01 July 2011. The rights group says political opponents of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema – the current chair of the AU. Nguema’s administration has allegedly arrested and detained around 100 students in recent days.
Amnesty said the arrests appeared to be "a pre-emptive measure to prevent any demonstrations during the summit".
President Nguema exerts almost total control over the political system; and, though oil has given the country wealth, the marchers say ordinary citizens are yet to reap the benefits.
How will the AU respond to the situation currently obtaining in Equatorial Guinea? Will it ignore the demonstrators and risk being perceived as supporting President Obiang – who has ruled the country for 32 uninterrupted years since seizing power in a 1979 coup or will the AU condemn its own chairperson?
The AU on 16 February 2011 expressed solidarity with the Egyptian people, saying “their desire for democracy was consistent with the relevant instruments of the AU and the continent's commitment to promote democratization, good governance and respect for human rights." Further, the AU on 23 February 2011 condemned "disproportionate force" against the protesters.
Whatever, the AU pronounces on Equatorial Guinea, either way – trouble is looming in Obiang land. A tacit embrace for the demonstrators will encourage them, while ignoring them can only lend currency to view that the AU supports tyranny in Africa, thus jeopardizing any prospects of AU driven future interventions in conflict situations around the continent.
General state of peace and security in Africa
The 17th AU Assembly in Equatorial Guinea takes place in a context marked by major developments in Tunisia and Egypt, the conflict in Libya, as well as the situations in Somalia, and Sudan, with the persistence of the Darfur crisis and the threats that the current tension in Southern Kordofan and Abyei poses to the progress made in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Sudan
More than 2 million people have died in Southern Sudan over the past two decades due to war-related causes and famine, and millions have been displaced from their homes.
Brief Timeline: 2002 - 2011
• July 2002: Sudan government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) sign a peace framework agreement in Kenya.
• 26 May 2004: Government of Sudan and the SPLM signed three protocols on Power Sharing, on the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile, and on the long disputed Abyei area.
• 5 June 2004: The parties signed “the Nairobi Declaration on the Final Phase of Peace in the Sudan.”
• 9 January 2005: Government of Sudan and the SPLM signed the final peace agreement at a ceremony held in Nairobi, Kenya.
• 11-15 April 2010: Sudan held national and regional elections.
• 8-15 January 2011: South Sudan held a referendum to decide on unity or independence.
There are implications for its foreign policy. The country has invested heavily in peacekeeping, capacity building and mediation efforts in Sudan.
Talking points and Important Issues to watch:
Africa's youngest nation is born
On 09 July 2011, Southern Sudan officially secedes from North Sudan, becoming an independent country.
South Sudan faces major challenges. The list is long but the following are noted:
Borders
Even though North Sudan appears resigned to the South’s secession, the two countries will still have to agree on the precise border that divides them. One major piece of that puzzle is Abyei, an oil-rich region that was supposed to hold its own referendum and decide whether it would secede along with the South or remain with the North. Due to disagreements between North and South Sudanese leaders, Abyei’s referendum was postponed indefinitely.
Now that the voting is over, Abyei remains a “potential hotspot.”
The Southern People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has said that if the Abyei referendum is not conducted, the only remaining option is for Abyei to be transferred to the south by presidential decree.
On the northern side, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has said he will not accept Abyei being part of the south.
The seriousness of the situation in Abyei is so great that one analyst calls it “the key to South Sudan’s stability.” Without a solution that both governments and the people of Abyei can accept, violence may escalate.
Oil
Oil is the primary driver of Sudan’s economy.
Economic prospects for both Northern and Southern Sudan remain linked to continued oil production.
According to the US Energy Information Administration, citing the International Monetary Fund, oil represented 98 percent of total revenues for the 2010 for South Sudan compared to Khartoum at 65 percent.
At 98% - Southern Sudan is totally dependent on exports of crude that run through the pipeline and refinery system in the north. Negotiations on the future management of the oil sector are thus crucial to the survival of both north and south Sudan after July 2011.
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 (which provided for the referendum) established a 50-50 revenue-sharing agreement between North and South, but now the two countries will have to negotiate a new agreement on revenues.
Three-quarters of the oil is in the South, but the North has the pipelines and refineries.
North Sudan has threatened to cut supplies to the South if there is any breach of the 50-50 revenue sharing agreement signed under the 2005 CPA.
Integration and Citizenship
South Sudan will need to develop a basis for national integration, citizenship, and unity that relies on more than just opposition to the North. This is a serious challenge that is compounded by the return of refugees and members of the Diaspora. Many were born in refugee camps across Africa, and others grew up in overseas countries of Europe, America, Asia and elsewhere.
Political Reform
South Sudan will face the challenge of allowing multiple social voices to express their opinions unhindered.
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement — dominates the political arena but might need to transform itself into a broad-based political party so as to preserve the goal shared by all southerners — self-determination. This will require a genuine opening of political space.
Other reforms include the demobilisation and reintegration of armed forces linked to the SPLA which remains a key concern. Nearly 40% of the Southern Sudanese government budget goes to the army, meaning that demobilisation and reintegration of army units is a priority after independence.
Development
UNDP 2010 report provides alarming statistics on education, disease, sustainability, and other issues in South Sudan, notably;
• 70 percent of the people in South Sudan have no access to any form of healthcare
• one in five women die in childbirth and;
• one in five children fail to make it to their fifth birthday
These problems are not just economic – they also threaten to undercut political stability.
The AU High-Level Panel on Sudan has been involved in attempts aimed at a negotiated settlement around a range of outstanding issues. The three-member Panel is led by former President Thabo Mbeki and includes former Burundi President, Pierre Buyoya and former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar.
While they are yet to resolve many of the issues, there has been developments on many fronts, including agreement that neither territory would support the respective oppositions.
Abyei - an oil-rich area on the border between the North and South of Sudan
This tense region is a ‘deadly war waiting to happen’. A spark could ignite renewed violence and plunge the whole area back into war. Abyei has seen its share of bloodshed. In 2008, northern and southern forces clashed. Hundreds were killed and thousands were displaced as Abyei town was razed. Residents of Abyei feel left behind by the South and threatened by the North.
A region of nomadic Arab Misseriya pastoralists and African Ngok Dinka, Abyei was supposed to have had its own referendum on whether to join the new South or remain with Khartoum. But lingering questions, such as who has grazing rights to the land and who is eligible to vote, have postponed Abyei’s referendum indefinitely.
As a result, the Dinka of Abyei have threatened to hold their own unilateral referendum which would likely end in the region aligning itself with the South, a result that would be unrecognized by the North and by nomadic Arab Misseriya pastoralists who do not favor a split Sudan. The tension could cause renewed fighting.
On 19 May 2011, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) invaded Abyei and simultaneously, President Omar El Bashir dissolved the Abyei Administration, arguing his government had intervened in order to restore law and order. An estimated 50 000 people were displaced.
Abyei was expected to hold a referendum simultaneously with the vote on Southern Sudan in January 2011 but this did not happen.
The region's disputed status has long been recognized as a potential 'trigger for violence'. As the date (09 July 2011) for the secession of Southern Sudan edges closer, control of Abyei has remained one of the biggest points of contention in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
Temporary Agreement on Abyei
On 20 June 2011, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia an agreement on Abyei was signed between Khartoum and SPLM. This agreement, which is a temporary arrangement, calls on withdrawal of both Khartoum and South Sudanese armed forces from designated Abyei area, where they will be replaced by a peacekeeping force, composed of Ethiopian troops. The agreement also calls for establishment of civil administration as well as rapid repatriation programme for the residents of Abyei—who were driven away from their homestead, due to forceful occupation of Abyei by Khartoum armed forces.
The Ethiopian peacekeepers will act as a buffer, between the South and North, and their mandate is just to protect civilians within its area of control in Abyei, but to also effectively monitor, intercept and prevent border incursions by armed groups – often consisting of proxy militias on horse backs, carrying AK47s and swords.
But given their limited mandate, which excludes engaging militarily with the armed groups, how will these peacekeepers deal with possibly large scale firefights with any of these armed elements? This is worrying considering the number of the Ethiopian troops to be deployed in the area is only one brigade and given the vastness of the land and number of different armed groups who roam the area.
Future of UN Peacekeeping in Sudan
The future of the UN peacekeeping force is under debate. Khartoum has indicated that it should be disbanded, or - if it’s mandate is to be extended by the United Nations - that it should only be based in Southern Sudan.
Darfur
Faced with renewed fighting in early 2011, the UN and AU, which oversee the United Nations/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), urged conclusion of the Doha talks.
A draft peace agreement (Darfur Political Agreement) was handed on 27 April 2011 by the mediation in Doha to the Sudanese parties participating in the Doha peace process: Government of Sudan (GOS), Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Liberation and Equality Movement (LJM).
The next phase is the Darfur Political Process (DPP), to be facilitated with support from the joint peacekeeping mission. The goal of the DPP is to allow Darfuri stakeholders to be directly involved in supporting and implementing a peace agreement.
The UN and AU have different positions on the process: the UN secretary-general urges the process be based on the outcome of the Doha negotiations, while the AU urges it to proceed concurrently, irrespective of Doha’s outcome.
In contrast to the Doha-based peace talks between the government and rebels outside of Darfur with international mediators, the DPP aims to engage Darfuri civil society in a more indigenous and inclusive political process.
Participation by interested civil society groups in the DPP is likely to face a brick wall, given the fact that the government has in the past failed to engage civil society in Darfur talks. Allegations abound of routine uses security forces to harass and arrest civil society and political party activists, journalists, and perceived opponents.
With many questions about the DPP still pending, UNAMID has set up a secretariat to oversee the process, while the UN and AU, and a group of special envoys to Sudan, have stressed the need for the Sudanese government to create the “enabling environment” for the process to be credible.
In March 2011, the government of Sudan announced it will hold an administrative referendum in July 2011 to determine whether Darfur should be administered as one region or remain three states. Rebel movements and the US argued that this interferes with the Doha peace talks, where the status of Darfur is a key issue.
Southern Kordofan
A humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Southern Kordofan, following the armed conflict that broke out between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), on 5 June 2011.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced from their homes and face hunger and diseases, due to fighting, aerial bombardment and the interruption of essential supplies. There are also reports of human rights abuses.
The Chairperson of the Commission, Mr. Jean Ping confirmed the humanitarian crisis affecting the civilian population in all parts of Southern Kordofan and called upon the Parties to engage in current negotiations towards a political settlement, under the facilitation of the AU High‐Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP). The AU insists that there is no military solution to the current political conflict and that the Parties should urgently agree to a cessation of hostilities.
AU and the ICC decision on al-Bashir
The African Union (AU) has consistently argued that the decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to charge President Omar al-Bashir with war crimes will harm the peace process in Sudan.
"The AU reiterates that the search for justice should be pursued in a manner not detrimental to the search for peace. The latest decision by the ICC runs in the opposite direction," the bloc said in a statement.
The upcoming 17th Summit of the AU in Equatorial Guinea is an opportunity to follow up on recent developments on this matter.
Somalia
The Kampala Accord
The Kampala Accord was signed on 9 June 2011 by the President of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and the Speaker of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden. The Accord seeks to end the current transitional period, with a deferral of elections for one year.
The UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are collectively tasked with facilitating and supporting the implementation of the Kampala Accord and to further peace and reconciliation in Somalia.
The next phase is the drawing up of a roadmap, with benchmarks, timelines and compliance mechanisms, to be considered by the envisaged consultative meeting in Mogadishu soon, as essential for the implementation of the transitional tasks within the next twelve months.
The TFG Prime Minister, Mr. Mohamed “Farmajo” Abdullahi on 19 June 2011 resigned from his position, as part of the implementation of the Kampala Accord.
AMISOM
The African Union Mission in Somalia (UMISOM) was deployed to Mogadishu in March 2007 with the mandate to support the Djibouti Peace Process by protecting Transitional Federal Institutions and TFG personnel, and by securing critical infrastructure in Mogadishu, including the airport and the seaport.
By October 2010, AMISOM consisted of over 8,000 peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi.
Key actors in Somalia’s politics include;
• the provisionally autonomous regional state of Puntland which occupies the northeastern section of post‐independence Somalia
• the self‐declared independent state of Somaliland which occupies Somalia’s northwestern section
• the internationally‐recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) which controls part of the capital Mogadishu, with defacto sovereignty over all of post‐independence Somalia, according to international powers
• the armed Islamist revolutionary opposition to the T.F.G. (Harakat al‐Shabaab Mujahideen – H.S.M.) which controls most of the southern and central section of “Somalia” and has ambition to control all of it.
• the African Union (A.U.), which originates the peacekeeping mission (UNOSOM) that protects the T.F.G. in the capital Mogadishu
• AMISOM
• the Western donor powers and I.G.O.s that fund the T.F.G.
Other significant actors are;
• Somalia’s neighboring states, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti; Arab states looking for political and economic influence
• the Islamist donors to and rebel movements affiliated with H.S.M.
• the Ogaden National Liberation Front (O.N.L.F.) that wages an armed war of liberation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State
• regional authorities in southern and central Somalia, some of them established (Galmudug, Himan and Heeb, Ahlu Sunna wal‐Jamaa), others contesting H.S.M.’s control and loosely linked to the T.F.G. and the S.S.C. liberation movement that calls for independence of territories disputed between Somaliland and Puntland.
The Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) controls a trained army numbering several thousand soldiers. Other various TFG-allied groups throughout Somalia are estimated to control militias ranging in strength from hundreds to thousands. The TFG and some groups possess limited inventories of older armored vehicles and other heavy weapons, and small arms are prevalent throughout Somalia.
On 8 September 2009, 500 naval recruits graduated to form Somalia’s first naval force in over 2 decades. The TFG said it would use the force to combat piracy off Somalia’s coastline.
Libya
On 5 May 2011, countries in the Libya Contact Group and allies - composed of foreign ministers from more than 20 countries including France, Britain, the US, Italy, and Qatar, as well as representatives of the Arab League and the African Union (AU) met in Rome, as forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi pounded a rebel town in the west.
The Contact Group said after the Rome meeting they had set aside a temporary special fund (US$250 million initially) to be channeled to the rebel administration in its eastern Libyan stronghold of Benghazi. The group said the money would be used for humanitarian and public policing purposes only, according to France24 TV.
Frozen Assets
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would try to pass legislation to unblock about $30bn of Libyan state funds frozen in the US to help the rebel movement, while there was a cautious response from Britain, which said it had no plans to contribute to the fund set up for the rebels because it had already made a "very substantial" contribution to humanitarian assistance.
As the fighting has descended into a stalemate, the rebel Transitional National Council said it needs up to $3bn to keep going. But efforts to unblock Libyan state assets that are frozen in overseas accounts, or to allow the rebels to get past United Nations (UN) sanctions that prevent their selling oil on international markets, have been held up so far.
Rebel spokesman Mahmoud Shammam said the rebels had enough funds only to pay for their immediate needs in food, public salaries and medicine until the end of the month (May 2011).
But Libyan authorities argue, "any use of the frozen assets is like piracy on the high seas."
Libya Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim told media "they (the rebels) are not a legal entity. They are not a country. The country is not divided according to a referendum or to a United Nations resolution," adding, "This is illegal ... If we stay silent about it, I think we will be living in a jungle."
He said in a report cited by Reuters on 5 May 2011, that Libya had more than $140 billion invested abroad and that the Libyan central bank had transferred 700 million Libyan dinars to its Benghazi branch in February 2011 to pay for six months of salaries and other expenses.
The African Union Road Map
Meanwhile, Turkey followed in the AU’s footsteps in trying to secure a ceasefire in the North African state. While Gaddafi had agreed to a ceasefire on 26 April 2011, the Libyan Transitional Council insisted there could be no peace until he and his son leave power and all prisoners are released.
The AU has since its first deliberation on the issue on 10 March 2011, insisted that "only a political solution will fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people and promote lasting peace in that country"
In that regard, the AU through the PSC worked out a roadmap for resolving the Libyan crisis. The AU met with representatives of both parties. The Libyan Government reiterated its unconditional acceptance of the AU Roadmap, while the National Transitional Council pledged to study the document thoroughly.
The current situation is that both sides are expected to submit their comments and proposals on the various elements of the Roadmap shortly. Since the last consultation on 26 April 2011, the situation in Libya has continued to deteriorate, marked by continued fighting and other military operations, the deterioration of the humanitarian situation, which is tragically illustrated by the plight of the people living in the town of Misrata, and the absence of any dialogue between the parties to find a comprehensive solution to the various aspects of the crisis.
At the Contact Group meeting in Rome, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU reiterated the need to support the quest for peace in Libya and to fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people.
According to the AU, the role of the international community is to help the Libyan people overcome this sensitive phase of its history, and its involvement must be laid on clear bases, namely:
(i) the need to duly take into account the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people to democracy, political reform and good governance, and the fact that only Libyans should determine the future of their country;
(ii) respect for international legality, which requires, under the circumstances, that all act within the limits of the provisions of Resolutions 1970 and 1973 (2011). In this regard, our PSC expressed concerns that must be taken into account if we want to promote and consolidate an international consensus on the way forward and strengthen global governance based on effective multilateralism; and
(iii) the persevering and sustained search for a political solution to the present crisis, which demands that the international community fully mobilize itself to facilitate the speedy conclusion of a ceasefire, as required by the Security Council in its Resolution 1973 (2011), being clearly understood that the ceasefire is only one the elements, certainly an important one, of the overall solution that we must promote, and that it must be accompanied by the establishment of an international verification and monitoring mechanism which is effective and credible.
The Rebel Road Map
Libyan rebels unveiled their detailed "road map" to democracy at a meeting of the 22-nation Contact Group on Libya in Rome. The proposals begin with local elections even before the fall of the Gaddafi regime.
The road map also sets out the structure of an inclusive unity government if Gaddafi stands down. The government will include members of the current council, alongside three members of the Gaddafi regime.
There will also be two high-ranking military officers, two police or intelligence officials who have not been involved in the bloodshed, and a Supreme Court judge.
Under the plan, a National Congress of representatives of all towns and cities will be held to elect a committee to draft a new constitution. That will be submitted to a referendum. The road map foresees parliamentary elections four months later, with presidential elections two months after that.
Questions have been raised in Western capitals about the rebels' credentials after revelations that one commander is a former Guantanamo inmate. These contradictions are compounded by the fact that Gadaffi reportedly has lots of cash money on hand to continue to buy allegiances, particularly tribal allegiances and mercenary support that is sustaining his fight. Both NATO and the rebels might have underestimated how many billions of dollars Gadaffi had stashed away from which to sustain a long, drawn out military operation.
NATO’s reputation on line
As of 23 June 2011, NATO has flown over 12,000 missions over Libya including 4,000 strike sorties by attack helicopters, missile firing drones, and jet fighters - when its war began against Col. Muammar Gaddafi's military in March 2011.
The results have not marched the intensity of the air bombardments, except for a growing battlefield stalemate and troublesome divisions within the NATO alliance.
The punishing barrage has failed, so far, to dislodge Gaddafi from his base, and there is no sign that Gaddafi is about to surrender.
On 23 June 2011, deviating from the collective norm, Italy called for a suspension of the air campaign to permit the delivery of humanitarian aid to Libya's civilians who confront an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. This gesture by Italy has been interpreted to mean the NATO offensive has had the unintended consequence of exacerbating the very humanitarian crisis it was intended to relieve.
Gaddafi’s government has repeatedly accused NATO of targeting civilians in an attempt to rally support against international intervention into Libya's civil war. The alliance insists it tries to avoid killing civilians.
Ivory Coast
The International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has requested an investigation into crimes against humanity and war crimes committed after a disputed presidential election in Ivory Coast in November 2010. The ICC judges have yet to open the investigation.
If the panel of judges grants the request, it will be the 7th case opened by Luis Moreno-Ocampo on ‘war crimes or crimes against humanity’ – all of them in Africa.
Ivory Coast is not a party to the Rome Statute that set up the ICC, but the Ivorian government has accepted the Court’s jurisdiction to investigate and try crimes under international law committed in the country since 19 September 2002.
President Alassane Ouattara confirmed this commitment in a letter to the ICC in December 2010.
Friday, June 24, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Wither South Africa? For how long can the centre hold before Tunisia Day?
“I CAN predict when SA’s "Tunisia Day" will arrive. Tunisia Day is when the masses rise against the powers that be, as happened recently in Tunisia”, MOELETSI MBEKI wrote. The postulation published by POLITICS WEB on 10 January 2011 has a familiar ring to LESTER VENTER’s controversial work on political forecasting, ‘WHEN MANDELA GOES’ published in 1997.
Both Lester and Moeletsi point to a South Africa inevitably engulfed by social revolution and both put the blame squarely on the ANC government; particularly its policies on globalization and liberalization of the economy. According to these two authors, it is a zero sum game – one in which the ruling group is portrayed as incapable of shaping the future in a sustainable way.
The Gloom and Doom Scenario
Lester Venter wrote as follows:
‘South Africa has now experienced a political revolution, and is confronting the early stages of a social revolution. The first prepared the way for the second’.
He highlights the widening ‘chasm between the privileged and the desperate’, the two worlds that make up South Africa—the first world and the second. He then goes on to say:
“The change has still to come. And come it will. Moreover, change will not come primarily through the actions and policies of government. It will come from underlying forces to which governmental action will usually be a confused response”.
Vester posits several questions – among them;
• When the magic of Nelson Mandela is no longer here, will the dream live on or will it become a nightmare?
• What will life look like in a new society?
• What is the future for politics, the economy, jobs, crime, education, health services and the environment?
Moeletsi’s article is very much an echo of arguments made more than a decade ago by Lester.
For instance; in Lester, the climax arrives 20 years after his publication, when ’the sons and daughters of the next generation are not going to accept their fate of unfulfilled expectations’. At that point, change would have taken place – ‘from a race based oligarchy to a non-racial democracy...However, the process of change would have turned out to be greater than the change itself…far less auspicious. In Moeletsi, the time frames are similar. ‘The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years’.
Moeletsi opines;
“The year 2020 is when China estimates that its current minerals-intensive industrialization phase will be concluded. For SA, this will mean the African National Congress (ANC) government will have to cut back on social grants, which it uses to placate the black poor and to get their votes”.
According to Lester;
“…the ANC’s condition is more precarious today than it has ever been before. The great unifier – opposition to apartheid – is gone. The second great unifier – Mandela – is going” pg 94.
Moeletsi builds on this scenario;
“…the ANC inherited a flawed, complex society it barely understood; its tinkering with it is turning it into an explosive cocktail. The ANC leaders are like a group of children playing with a hand grenade. One day one of them will figure out how to pull out the pin and everyone will be killed".
Lester and Moeletsi: Seemingly oblivious of government efforts and likely social impacts
The social revolution predicted by Lester and Moeletsi came a long time ago; that is if the series of service delivery protests around the country since the country's first democratic elections on 22 April 1994 are anything to go by. That because apartheid divided South Africa into separate and unequal spaces and that this design remains imprinted throughout the country, protests were thus expected.
In April 2010 during the debate on the budget vote of the local government ministry, deputy minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) Yunus Carrim said that the protests had "structural, systemic, political, economic, governance, psychological, emotional and other dimensions".
Carim added:
"Most of the protests are about service delivery issues. But they are not just about that. Many of the protests have been taking place in better performing wards and municipalities where there has, in fact, been significant service delivery. The protests are also about a range of other municipal issues, including maladministration, nepotism, fraud, corruption and the failure of councilors and administrators to listen to residents”.
The question that arises: ‘Unlike, in Tunisia, and most recently Egypt and Libya, what has kept the street protests in South Africa from boiling over’?
The answer may lie in the pre-emptive salient processes already underway in South Africa. Faced with protests, the country has not resorted to shutting the internet; nor the ordering snipers to fire ‘live bullets’ on protestors.
Aubrey Matshiqi is a senior research associate at the Centre for Policy Studies. He argues South Africa is facing a different challenge. He notes that an estimated that 60% of SA’s population is under 30 and concludes;
‘while this…comes with its own challenges when it comes to national planning, what it also means is that South Africa still has the opportunity to unlock her social and economic potential. If the country plans well and implements its plans successfully, the twenty-first century may become a South African and African century, as was predicted by former President Thabo Mbeki. If South Africa succeeds, the country might become the gateway to Africa, not by mere proclamation but through her contribution to the social, political and economic development of the continent’.
A range of salient efforts by government are noted in a number of areas, particularly in the area of increased participatory democracy and in governance issues. Reports of President Jacob Zuma and his ministers making un- announced visits to poor local communities are common and so has been the general transparency in governance. For instance, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs launched on 12 August 2009 an “Operation clean audit 2014” campaign.
Efforts like these are partly responsible for South Africa’s move into the top spot out of 94 countries for its national budget process in terms of transparency and accountability, according to the International Open Budget 2011 report.
This was an important move up from second place in 2008.
The open budget survey uses internationally recognized criteria to give each country a transparency score on a 100-point scale called the open budget index.
SA is one of a few countries in the world that provide extensive information about the government’s budget, according to the International Open Budget report, released by the International Budget Partnership - an initiative designed to undertake budget analyses in order to improve governance and reduce poverty.
A people centered democracy?
The government’s priority since 1994 has been meeting the basic needs of the millions of South Africans living in poverty. This target has been a cornerstone of government’s redistribution and poverty-eradication effort. In line with the Millennium Development Goals, government’s target is to ensure that by 2014 all households have access to the minimum standard for each basic service.
A related 2014 goal is to halve unemployment and poverty. Through procurements of services and by using labor-intensive methods to maintain and build infrastructure, municipalities both broaden participation in the local economy and create work opportunities for the poor.
President Zuma already stated in his 2011 State of the Nation Address that government was considering alternative service delivery models and that positive political leadership and optimal communication, particularly at local government levels would be critical. Former President Thabo Mbeki also understood this point.
In spite of all these efforts by the current government administration, both Lester and Moeletsi are not dissuaded from their vision of a future SA characterized by gloomy and doom. While raising crucial socio economic indicators and government shortcomings, the two are seemingly blind to the salient features of enhanced good governance currently inherent in SA’s democracy experiment and how these features constantly structure political responses by the South African masses.
Indeed, the ANC led government has had its flaws that might come back to haunt future generations and development challenges are huge. However, in the same breath, the good that this government does now must be acknowledged and strengthened and these efforts are likely to diffuse potential revolts in the future.
Of-course, admittedly, social variables are not easy to fathom, and thus it is difficult to predict the future with precision. And yet it can be argued, the future is like clay. It can be molded. It does not have to end the way Lester and Moeletsi envisage it.
Both Lester and Moeletsi point to a South Africa inevitably engulfed by social revolution and both put the blame squarely on the ANC government; particularly its policies on globalization and liberalization of the economy. According to these two authors, it is a zero sum game – one in which the ruling group is portrayed as incapable of shaping the future in a sustainable way.
The Gloom and Doom Scenario
Lester Venter wrote as follows:
‘South Africa has now experienced a political revolution, and is confronting the early stages of a social revolution. The first prepared the way for the second’.
He highlights the widening ‘chasm between the privileged and the desperate’, the two worlds that make up South Africa—the first world and the second. He then goes on to say:
“The change has still to come. And come it will. Moreover, change will not come primarily through the actions and policies of government. It will come from underlying forces to which governmental action will usually be a confused response”.
Vester posits several questions – among them;
• When the magic of Nelson Mandela is no longer here, will the dream live on or will it become a nightmare?
• What will life look like in a new society?
• What is the future for politics, the economy, jobs, crime, education, health services and the environment?
Moeletsi’s article is very much an echo of arguments made more than a decade ago by Lester.
For instance; in Lester, the climax arrives 20 years after his publication, when ’the sons and daughters of the next generation are not going to accept their fate of unfulfilled expectations’. At that point, change would have taken place – ‘from a race based oligarchy to a non-racial democracy...However, the process of change would have turned out to be greater than the change itself…far less auspicious. In Moeletsi, the time frames are similar. ‘The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years’.
Moeletsi opines;
“The year 2020 is when China estimates that its current minerals-intensive industrialization phase will be concluded. For SA, this will mean the African National Congress (ANC) government will have to cut back on social grants, which it uses to placate the black poor and to get their votes”.
According to Lester;
“…the ANC’s condition is more precarious today than it has ever been before. The great unifier – opposition to apartheid – is gone. The second great unifier – Mandela – is going” pg 94.
Moeletsi builds on this scenario;
“…the ANC inherited a flawed, complex society it barely understood; its tinkering with it is turning it into an explosive cocktail. The ANC leaders are like a group of children playing with a hand grenade. One day one of them will figure out how to pull out the pin and everyone will be killed".
Lester and Moeletsi: Seemingly oblivious of government efforts and likely social impacts
The social revolution predicted by Lester and Moeletsi came a long time ago; that is if the series of service delivery protests around the country since the country's first democratic elections on 22 April 1994 are anything to go by. That because apartheid divided South Africa into separate and unequal spaces and that this design remains imprinted throughout the country, protests were thus expected.
In April 2010 during the debate on the budget vote of the local government ministry, deputy minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) Yunus Carrim said that the protests had "structural, systemic, political, economic, governance, psychological, emotional and other dimensions".
Carim added:
"Most of the protests are about service delivery issues. But they are not just about that. Many of the protests have been taking place in better performing wards and municipalities where there has, in fact, been significant service delivery. The protests are also about a range of other municipal issues, including maladministration, nepotism, fraud, corruption and the failure of councilors and administrators to listen to residents”.
The question that arises: ‘Unlike, in Tunisia, and most recently Egypt and Libya, what has kept the street protests in South Africa from boiling over’?
The answer may lie in the pre-emptive salient processes already underway in South Africa. Faced with protests, the country has not resorted to shutting the internet; nor the ordering snipers to fire ‘live bullets’ on protestors.
Aubrey Matshiqi is a senior research associate at the Centre for Policy Studies. He argues South Africa is facing a different challenge. He notes that an estimated that 60% of SA’s population is under 30 and concludes;
‘while this…comes with its own challenges when it comes to national planning, what it also means is that South Africa still has the opportunity to unlock her social and economic potential. If the country plans well and implements its plans successfully, the twenty-first century may become a South African and African century, as was predicted by former President Thabo Mbeki. If South Africa succeeds, the country might become the gateway to Africa, not by mere proclamation but through her contribution to the social, political and economic development of the continent’.
A range of salient efforts by government are noted in a number of areas, particularly in the area of increased participatory democracy and in governance issues. Reports of President Jacob Zuma and his ministers making un- announced visits to poor local communities are common and so has been the general transparency in governance. For instance, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs launched on 12 August 2009 an “Operation clean audit 2014” campaign.
Efforts like these are partly responsible for South Africa’s move into the top spot out of 94 countries for its national budget process in terms of transparency and accountability, according to the International Open Budget 2011 report.
This was an important move up from second place in 2008.
The open budget survey uses internationally recognized criteria to give each country a transparency score on a 100-point scale called the open budget index.
SA is one of a few countries in the world that provide extensive information about the government’s budget, according to the International Open Budget report, released by the International Budget Partnership - an initiative designed to undertake budget analyses in order to improve governance and reduce poverty.
A people centered democracy?
The government’s priority since 1994 has been meeting the basic needs of the millions of South Africans living in poverty. This target has been a cornerstone of government’s redistribution and poverty-eradication effort. In line with the Millennium Development Goals, government’s target is to ensure that by 2014 all households have access to the minimum standard for each basic service.
A related 2014 goal is to halve unemployment and poverty. Through procurements of services and by using labor-intensive methods to maintain and build infrastructure, municipalities both broaden participation in the local economy and create work opportunities for the poor.
President Zuma already stated in his 2011 State of the Nation Address that government was considering alternative service delivery models and that positive political leadership and optimal communication, particularly at local government levels would be critical. Former President Thabo Mbeki also understood this point.
In spite of all these efforts by the current government administration, both Lester and Moeletsi are not dissuaded from their vision of a future SA characterized by gloomy and doom. While raising crucial socio economic indicators and government shortcomings, the two are seemingly blind to the salient features of enhanced good governance currently inherent in SA’s democracy experiment and how these features constantly structure political responses by the South African masses.
Indeed, the ANC led government has had its flaws that might come back to haunt future generations and development challenges are huge. However, in the same breath, the good that this government does now must be acknowledged and strengthened and these efforts are likely to diffuse potential revolts in the future.
Of-course, admittedly, social variables are not easy to fathom, and thus it is difficult to predict the future with precision. And yet it can be argued, the future is like clay. It can be molded. It does not have to end the way Lester and Moeletsi envisage it.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Obama: Will he survive the tantrum?
By Tula Dlamini
Will US President Barack Obama survive the current mutiny by disgruntled House Democrats over his agreement with congressional Republicans, to temporarily prolong all the Bush-era tax cuts scheduled to expire by the end of 2010? Many House Democrats rejected the compromise and are particularly angry because, Obama, allegedly bypassed them and went straight to Republicans to hammer out the deal. The refrain is a potential risk for Obama, especially among major donors who now reportedly wonder whether they can support his re-election effort in 2012.
House Democrats voted 9 December 2010 against considering the tax package that Obama negotiated with Republicans, raising questions over the president's influence in his own party.
Democrats initially wanted tax cuts extended for the 98 percent of the population that earns up to $200,000 a year as individuals or $250,000 a year for families, while returning tax rates on higher income to levels from the 1990s. Republicans protested – arguing that allowing the tax rates on higher income to rise would stifle small business growth and harm the economy.
Obama is caught in-between following the compromise which, if passed into law, will see tax-breaks across the board. While he previously strongly opposed extending tax cuts for the richest Americans, Obama now says the compromise was ‘an essential step on the road to recovery’.
Regardless which way the pendulum swings - either option is costly. For example, the plan by Democrats would take more than $3 trillion out of tax receipts over the next 10 years, while the Republican demand to extend all the tax breaks would cost about $4 trillion. It is a juggle of note – one that caused congressional leaders from both parties to negotiate a compromise on 6 December 2010.
"For the next two years, every American family will keep their tax cuts, "Obama said in his statement to reporters. Further, “it will spur our private sector to create millions of new jobs, and add momentum our economy badly needs."
Plotted as an appeasement to Republican opposition, this tax deal includes an investment credit, which is expected to add $300 billion to the financial system. Analysts say Obama would have failed dismally to get such an amount as a pure stimulus package through the House of Representatives.
All in all, for the next two years, this Keynesian approach to economics will generate a $893 billion hit on the deficit over the next five years, according to figures released by the Congressional Budget Office.
The bulk of the deficit increase comes from loss of revenue -- $756 billion -- with the rest coming from additional direct outlays.
The 13-month extension of unemployment benefits adds no less than $57 billion to the deficit.
The highest price item is the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, which will add more than $400 billion to the deficit, followed by the payroll tax holiday at about $225 billion.
All this amounts to a complex form of quantitative easing - a euphemism for printing cash, the way it was done in Zimbabwe and Uganda under late President Idi Amin. Such a scenario is expected do the trick in as far as keeping the economy afloat but can anyone rule out unintended consequences.
In Zimbabwe and Uganda, printing money that is not backed by real goods and services triggered inflation, pushed tax receipts and for a while helped the government’s debt receipts to stagnate; thus allowing it to settle the outstanding debt. In the US context, as was in Zimbabwe and Uganda, current buyers of debt will be stuck with negative real interest rates for decades – the value of the dollar would collapse significantly – threatening the current US dollar advantage as a global reserve currency.
Obama must decide what is in the interest of the broad citizens of America. He can only achieve such by transcending both his opponents, the Republican Party and his own Democratic Party constituency. This is not a career enhancing move but might prove character redeeming when the pages of history are ultimately written and when US politicians across the spectrum, will be interrogated by the simplest of citizens.
Like in the poem by Otto Rene Castillo, the Guatemalan revolutionary and guerrilla fighter, the simplest will ask, “What did you do when the poor suffered, when tenderness and life burned out of them?"
Obama will be able to answer and say; “Those tax cuts helped American families make ends meet. They helped them pay their kids’ college tuition, cover the cost of health care, and even offset the costs of energy-efficiency improvements to their homes. And they helped move the economy from free fall to growth...at least for the duration while I was still president”.
He might hasten to add, “Thereafter, the reality was difficult to fathom – not because the worst was unexpected, but because the US government was stuck with unbearable debt, fueled by among other factors, decline in tax revenue, subsequent huge cutbacks in public spending and a raise tax rates”.
So far, his administration has "stabilized" the economy and spurred private-sector hiring, but "people all across America aren't feeling that progress," Obama said in a news conference the day after Republicans seized majority control of the House and whittled down the Democratic majority in the Senate.
I do have a word of warning however to my American friends, who, like President Obama, appear to support Keynes’ ‘licking bucket theory’ hook-line and sinker. Today, the US government owes more money to more people than anyone in the world. Fast forward a few years and the stimulus fails to kick start the economy – it will be both the US Republicans and Democrats cringing with embarrassment as their own citizens thrash the streets, complete with vulgar t-shirts and tweets. And leaders of both parties will wonder just how they got into this predicament.
Will US President Barack Obama survive the current mutiny by disgruntled House Democrats over his agreement with congressional Republicans, to temporarily prolong all the Bush-era tax cuts scheduled to expire by the end of 2010? Many House Democrats rejected the compromise and are particularly angry because, Obama, allegedly bypassed them and went straight to Republicans to hammer out the deal. The refrain is a potential risk for Obama, especially among major donors who now reportedly wonder whether they can support his re-election effort in 2012.
House Democrats voted 9 December 2010 against considering the tax package that Obama negotiated with Republicans, raising questions over the president's influence in his own party.
Democrats initially wanted tax cuts extended for the 98 percent of the population that earns up to $200,000 a year as individuals or $250,000 a year for families, while returning tax rates on higher income to levels from the 1990s. Republicans protested – arguing that allowing the tax rates on higher income to rise would stifle small business growth and harm the economy.
Obama is caught in-between following the compromise which, if passed into law, will see tax-breaks across the board. While he previously strongly opposed extending tax cuts for the richest Americans, Obama now says the compromise was ‘an essential step on the road to recovery’.
Regardless which way the pendulum swings - either option is costly. For example, the plan by Democrats would take more than $3 trillion out of tax receipts over the next 10 years, while the Republican demand to extend all the tax breaks would cost about $4 trillion. It is a juggle of note – one that caused congressional leaders from both parties to negotiate a compromise on 6 December 2010.
"For the next two years, every American family will keep their tax cuts, "Obama said in his statement to reporters. Further, “it will spur our private sector to create millions of new jobs, and add momentum our economy badly needs."
Plotted as an appeasement to Republican opposition, this tax deal includes an investment credit, which is expected to add $300 billion to the financial system. Analysts say Obama would have failed dismally to get such an amount as a pure stimulus package through the House of Representatives.
All in all, for the next two years, this Keynesian approach to economics will generate a $893 billion hit on the deficit over the next five years, according to figures released by the Congressional Budget Office.
The bulk of the deficit increase comes from loss of revenue -- $756 billion -- with the rest coming from additional direct outlays.
The 13-month extension of unemployment benefits adds no less than $57 billion to the deficit.
The highest price item is the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, which will add more than $400 billion to the deficit, followed by the payroll tax holiday at about $225 billion.
All this amounts to a complex form of quantitative easing - a euphemism for printing cash, the way it was done in Zimbabwe and Uganda under late President Idi Amin. Such a scenario is expected do the trick in as far as keeping the economy afloat but can anyone rule out unintended consequences.
In Zimbabwe and Uganda, printing money that is not backed by real goods and services triggered inflation, pushed tax receipts and for a while helped the government’s debt receipts to stagnate; thus allowing it to settle the outstanding debt. In the US context, as was in Zimbabwe and Uganda, current buyers of debt will be stuck with negative real interest rates for decades – the value of the dollar would collapse significantly – threatening the current US dollar advantage as a global reserve currency.
Obama must decide what is in the interest of the broad citizens of America. He can only achieve such by transcending both his opponents, the Republican Party and his own Democratic Party constituency. This is not a career enhancing move but might prove character redeeming when the pages of history are ultimately written and when US politicians across the spectrum, will be interrogated by the simplest of citizens.
Like in the poem by Otto Rene Castillo, the Guatemalan revolutionary and guerrilla fighter, the simplest will ask, “What did you do when the poor suffered, when tenderness and life burned out of them?"
Obama will be able to answer and say; “Those tax cuts helped American families make ends meet. They helped them pay their kids’ college tuition, cover the cost of health care, and even offset the costs of energy-efficiency improvements to their homes. And they helped move the economy from free fall to growth...at least for the duration while I was still president”.
He might hasten to add, “Thereafter, the reality was difficult to fathom – not because the worst was unexpected, but because the US government was stuck with unbearable debt, fueled by among other factors, decline in tax revenue, subsequent huge cutbacks in public spending and a raise tax rates”.
So far, his administration has "stabilized" the economy and spurred private-sector hiring, but "people all across America aren't feeling that progress," Obama said in a news conference the day after Republicans seized majority control of the House and whittled down the Democratic majority in the Senate.
I do have a word of warning however to my American friends, who, like President Obama, appear to support Keynes’ ‘licking bucket theory’ hook-line and sinker. Today, the US government owes more money to more people than anyone in the world. Fast forward a few years and the stimulus fails to kick start the economy – it will be both the US Republicans and Democrats cringing with embarrassment as their own citizens thrash the streets, complete with vulgar t-shirts and tweets. And leaders of both parties will wonder just how they got into this predicament.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Wiki-leaks or Wiki-Pandora’s Box?
By Tula Dlamini
From the United States, China, Yemen, Germany, South Africa and beyond, diplomats and government officials are red-faced following the 29 November 2010 massive leak of U.S. diplomatic cables by the internet site WikiLeaks. So irked and desperate, the US government reportedly resorted to freelance computer hackers to help chase WikiLeaks from an American commercial computer network. That worked at least for part of a day but the website returned within hours, this time publishing from a secret location in Sweden.
The debacle has degenerated into a digital war; mirrored by a security man-hunt for WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, which begun early December 2010.
"The man seems like a James Bond villain: highly intelligent, cunning, arrogant. And like every Bond nemesis, MI6 is hunting down Assange..." ", said David Sharp, writing for the online Daily Wealth publication (2 Dec 2010)
Interpol issued a “red notice”, while a senior U.S. defense official disclosed that U.S. Justice, State and Defense Department lawyers are discussing whether it might be possible to prosecute Assange and others under the Espionage Act and to establish whether he can be charged with other crimes such as theft of government property or receipt of stolen government property. U.S. Congressman Peter King of New York asked whether WikiLeaks can be designated a terrorist organization.
Assange portrays himself as a journalist but as the saga unfolds, many are asking if these leaks qualify as acts of espionage, terrorism, or journalism? Do media have an untrammeled right to release classified documents? Is it journalism to release confidential information obtained by others and transferred to WikiLeaks? Could it be that unregulated release of classified information will do more harm than good?
It is estimated that WikiLeaks has 1.2 million documents in their database. The site first appeared in public in January 2007 and since then it has acted as a ‘whistle blower’ on many occasions. Analysts say it could be that WikiLeaks has published the largest source of incriminating leaked documents from the government’s world over, or they are in the presence of something much more severe.
For instance, the Washington Post (30 November 2010) cited one senior US State Department official who claimed a significant number of activists and journalists, were likely be endangered if named. The official said a number of "very sensitive sources" could be arrested or targeted with violence if their names are published.
Ironically, not long ago, the US Government cautioned South Africa against legislating in favor of the proposed Protection of Information Bill 2010 which is already at the committee stage in parliament. The bill seeks among other things ‘to provide for the protection of certain information from destruction, loss or unlawful disclosure and to regulate the manner in which information may be protected. While the ANC says it is merely trying to protect the public good; US officials, civil society and media groups in South Africa say the Bill in its current form ‘rides roughshod over media freedom and the democratic values of transparency and accountability'. Under the proposed bill – outfits such as WikiLeaks who strive on classified information primarily from ‘whistle blowers’ would have to constantly fight for survival.
WikiLeaks’ defense that it is merely asserting its right to free speech – is a classic pandora’s box, whose popular acceptance masks a significant level of controversy and conceptual confusion. Ideally – while everyone should be encouraged to participate freely in the spread of ideas and in the creation of meanings - society must still find a way to determine when to draw the line between protected and non-protected expression. Right now, the picture is blurred in favor of the ‘powerful in our midst’ – be they governments or individuals with access to instruments of power, including ‘broadband internet’.
Whatever the case maybe - right now - evidently – internet democracy is transforming every aspect of life, offering an inspiring foretaste of the world we are becoming – in which information advantage is the ultimate power. At the very least, the internet in the hands of citizens, changes power relations. Right now, hackers have the edge over governments, institutions and individuals who want to keep certain information secret. And even as much of the ‘leaked information’ was known already, and the rest was not too surprising, sites such as WikiLeaks remain popular among digital citizens who gladly consume these daily bytes of raw-information emanating from ‘real’ significant events - via broadband internet. Fact is that the average Joe Public wants a free flow of insights into what is going on in the corridors of power.
From the United States, China, Yemen, Germany, South Africa and beyond, diplomats and government officials are red-faced following the 29 November 2010 massive leak of U.S. diplomatic cables by the internet site WikiLeaks. So irked and desperate, the US government reportedly resorted to freelance computer hackers to help chase WikiLeaks from an American commercial computer network. That worked at least for part of a day but the website returned within hours, this time publishing from a secret location in Sweden.
The debacle has degenerated into a digital war; mirrored by a security man-hunt for WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, which begun early December 2010.
"The man seems like a James Bond villain: highly intelligent, cunning, arrogant. And like every Bond nemesis, MI6 is hunting down Assange..." ", said David Sharp, writing for the online Daily Wealth publication (2 Dec 2010)
Interpol issued a “red notice”, while a senior U.S. defense official disclosed that U.S. Justice, State and Defense Department lawyers are discussing whether it might be possible to prosecute Assange and others under the Espionage Act and to establish whether he can be charged with other crimes such as theft of government property or receipt of stolen government property. U.S. Congressman Peter King of New York asked whether WikiLeaks can be designated a terrorist organization.
Assange portrays himself as a journalist but as the saga unfolds, many are asking if these leaks qualify as acts of espionage, terrorism, or journalism? Do media have an untrammeled right to release classified documents? Is it journalism to release confidential information obtained by others and transferred to WikiLeaks? Could it be that unregulated release of classified information will do more harm than good?
It is estimated that WikiLeaks has 1.2 million documents in their database. The site first appeared in public in January 2007 and since then it has acted as a ‘whistle blower’ on many occasions. Analysts say it could be that WikiLeaks has published the largest source of incriminating leaked documents from the government’s world over, or they are in the presence of something much more severe.
For instance, the Washington Post (30 November 2010) cited one senior US State Department official who claimed a significant number of activists and journalists, were likely be endangered if named. The official said a number of "very sensitive sources" could be arrested or targeted with violence if their names are published.
Ironically, not long ago, the US Government cautioned South Africa against legislating in favor of the proposed Protection of Information Bill 2010 which is already at the committee stage in parliament. The bill seeks among other things ‘to provide for the protection of certain information from destruction, loss or unlawful disclosure and to regulate the manner in which information may be protected. While the ANC says it is merely trying to protect the public good; US officials, civil society and media groups in South Africa say the Bill in its current form ‘rides roughshod over media freedom and the democratic values of transparency and accountability'. Under the proposed bill – outfits such as WikiLeaks who strive on classified information primarily from ‘whistle blowers’ would have to constantly fight for survival.
WikiLeaks’ defense that it is merely asserting its right to free speech – is a classic pandora’s box, whose popular acceptance masks a significant level of controversy and conceptual confusion. Ideally – while everyone should be encouraged to participate freely in the spread of ideas and in the creation of meanings - society must still find a way to determine when to draw the line between protected and non-protected expression. Right now, the picture is blurred in favor of the ‘powerful in our midst’ – be they governments or individuals with access to instruments of power, including ‘broadband internet’.
Whatever the case maybe - right now - evidently – internet democracy is transforming every aspect of life, offering an inspiring foretaste of the world we are becoming – in which information advantage is the ultimate power. At the very least, the internet in the hands of citizens, changes power relations. Right now, hackers have the edge over governments, institutions and individuals who want to keep certain information secret. And even as much of the ‘leaked information’ was known already, and the rest was not too surprising, sites such as WikiLeaks remain popular among digital citizens who gladly consume these daily bytes of raw-information emanating from ‘real’ significant events - via broadband internet. Fact is that the average Joe Public wants a free flow of insights into what is going on in the corridors of power.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
South Africa’s first woman Defense Minister: Does the cap fit?
By Tula Dlamini
For Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu, South Africa’s current Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, the centrality of national security is not a contested proposition. Rather, what is contested is the notion that national security can be achieved solely by achieving a strong military. Consistent with her thinking, which in part, is shared among economic and military scholars, territorial security that is performed by the military is no more important than other social challenges such as poverty and inequality.
Geoff Harris (2002), Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management at the University of Natal, Durban, is an exponent of a demilitarised society. First, he acknowledges the changed global military landscape, noting that almost all armed conflicts now occur within countries rather than between them, typically between government forces and groups wishing to secede or take over government. Second, he observes that; worldwide, invasions of one country by another are very rare events. None of the remaining war-torn countries have borders with South Africa”, Prof. Harris adds that more people die each year of AIDS-related illness in South Africa and a further 60,000 from road accidents and interpersonal violence, than in all wars in Africa put together. Moreover, contends Prof. Harris, ‘there is sufficient evidence indicating how excessive military expenditure hinders economic growth and thereby development. Further evidence has also shown that one out of every poor person in a developing country is 33 times more likely to die as a result of ‘social neglect’(preventable disease and malnutrition) than as a result of an inter-country war’.
Need for a 'smart military paradigm'
The challenge raised by Harris, however, could be reframed. Does South Africa require a demilitarized army or a 'smarter and leaner army that is able to respond to security threats efficiently and yet remain responsive to social challenges? Arguably, there exists a number of alternative ways of achieving security; ways that are less costly and more effective than a conventional military whose operations are limited to military engagement only.
If current developments within the South African Defense Force are anything to go by, Dr. Sisulu appears up her alley. Within a year of her assuming leadership of the defense department, Sisulu has made visible interventions with respect to budget expenditures; including social interventions when it has been deemed material for army personnel to get involved. For instance, at the height of a nationwide strike by more than one million public workers in August 2010, the defense ministry promptly deployed soldiers to 37 hospitals to help keep basic health services running. Later, the ministry said military teams were called in to aid doctors and replace striking support staff in cleaning bed linen and providing meals.
Add to existing army operations which include cross-border security, peacekeeping initiatives in the continent and more, Sisulu appears fully aware of the cost implications. Her attention to military expenditure and due diligence is in no doubt, clearly signified by her department's placing on review several contracts for military hardware and canceling others outright.
There is no doubt that a strong military builds national pride, creates jobs, etc. The same could be said in leiu of South Africa's infamous “arms deal” in which over R50 billion was spent. Minister of Trade and Industry Rob Davies told parliament in September 2010 that the Strategic Defense Package, has created 73 000 jobs and has exceeded government’s expectations. Davies told the National Assembly the latest assessment, undertaken last year, of the creation of jobs by national industrial participation offsets showed they had created 85 000 direct and indirect jobs, with 73 000 from the arms deal.
However, perhaps not to be ignored is the question asked by Prof. Harris earlier;‘fine, but at what cost?’ Harris calculated that from a job creation perspective, 'the spending of R52.7 billion to create 65,000 jobs (originally projected figures) means that each job costs more than R800,000, which could employ a dozen teachers or nurses'. According to the learned Prof. Harris, 'this picture highlights the fact that military expenditure is invariably an extremely expensive way of creating jobs'.
What Prof. Harris does not allude to in his argument is that because South Africa is not at war; that fact alone, does not mean military preperedness must be treated as a secondary function of government. The opposite is true, ie. to the extent that the fiscus can handle, the South African military should seek to transform itself into a 'smarter', 'leaner' and 'more efficient' force; while, as Sisulu has repeatedly noted, 'responsive to societal goals and indeed the professional needs of every individual soldier'.
Ordinarily; evolving a 'smart' military must be accompanied, among other interventions, by a corresponding human development training programme. Signs of progress in that regard are visible. Case in point is the recent successful completion by Captain Catherine Labuschagne as one of four South African Air Force (SAAF) who took part in the first Operational Conversion Course (OCC) instructed by local SAAF pilots.
Captain Labuschagne made her solo Gripen flight at the South African airbase Makhado in the Limpopo province of South Africa. This will give her a place in the record books as the first female Gripen pilot.
The four newly qualified Gripen fighter pilots will strengthen SAAF and the 2 squadron which it is hoped will reach operational status sometime in 2011.
Recently the SAAF Gripen force, although still in a project phase and not formally an operational system, conducted a large part of the air policing during the FIFA World Cup.
The South African government ordered 26 Gripen C/D fighter aircraft in 1999 as part of a “strategic defense package” that acknowledges that future defense capabilities will increasingly rely in what is now commonly called network-centric operations. This is a new military doctrine or theory of war that prioritizes information advantage, enabled in part by information technology, into a competitive advantage through the robust networking of well informed geographically dispersed forces.
This technology does not come cheap but here it should be noted South Africa has consistently witnessed sharp declines with respect to military expenditure since 1994, this in spite of the media hoo haa.
Here is a simple graph showing the state of militarisation in South Africa. It shows military spending as a percentage of GDP (from the World Bank – just Google military GDP South Africa and you will get the data). The post-1994 decline is striking. The World Bank figures only go up to 2008. (Click on the graph for a larger image.)
Here is another graph that puts South Africa in some regional perspective. Recent increases have put South Africa well ahead of Malawi, Mozambique and Mauritius but well below the rest of the countries within the Southern Development Community (SADC).
The above scenario shows a low military expenditure versus GDP by comparison to other countries within the SADC region. In fact, it highlights a concerted effort by the post apartheid government in South Africa, to structure defense spending in manner that does not "bankrupt the state coffers" by exceeding the government's capacity to attend to other social concerns. The approach, which in South Africa has included 'strategic high-end defense purchaces', recognizes several variables, including the nature of armed conflict and the changed meaning of security in the past three decades.
Sisulu admits there are challenges,including among others, military spending oversight; hence her department has instituted several options to compliment existing measures aimed at ensuring that the final overall national budget is a monetary expression of the priorities of the nation, its choice between "weapons of war and the broader socio-economic goals”.
As 2010 came to a close, cabinet had approved two new but long-anticipated defence-related Bills for introduction to Parliament. They are the Military Veterans Bill and the South African Military Ombudsman Bill. The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the Military Veterans Bill will seek to establish, develop, promote and implement national policy and standards regarding military veterans and their dependants “to enhance the well-being and quality of life through progressive realisation of their socio-economic rights.”
A further amendment to the Defence Act is also on the cards, a separate statement from the Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans said. “In the next financial year [starting 01 April 2011] our priority would be to finalise the legislative process to remove unions in the SANDF,”
Following a rebellion by the South African armed forces, which happened on 15 August 2009, police responded with rubber bullets and teargas to disperse the protest described by the defense minister as a threat to national security. Four soldiers were taken to hospital and 18 were injured during the mutinous unrest which took place at the government Union Buildings in Pretoria. It can be argued this was the primary reason that led to a re-think on whether unions should be tolerated in the army.
“We are more than convinced that all the unions in the SANDF have no respect for national security their interest is collecting monthly affiliation funds from the poor soldiers” the ministry said.
The Military Ombudsman will be expected to attend to complaints arising from members of the Defence Force as well as members of the public “and to ensure speedy resolution of complaints within and against the Defence Force,” the statement added.
Currently complaints arising from the Defence Force are dealt with in terms of the Individual Grievance Regulation and by a military investigator embedded in the office of the Public Protector and through the army unions.
In response to this short-come, Sisulu appointed an interim defense commission on 9 September 2009, to advise on establishing a permanent National Defense Force Service Commission and a special dispensation for the conditions of service of members of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF), in matters both in the short-term and the long-term.
The commission's final report was submitted to the minister in November 2010 and is expected to undergo all the necessary deliberation and ratification processes.
The interim commission is chaired by Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Lebotsang Ronnie Bosielo and includes United Democratic Movement leader and retired general Bantu Holomisa, and Pieter Groenewald of the Freedom Front Plus, a veteran member of the Assembly's defence committee.
“By appointing members from such diverse backgrounds, some from outside the orbit of the military,allowed us for the first time, in this dispensation to have a bird's eye view of the SANDF since 1994,” Sisulu explains. It is initiatives such as alluded to above that speak to the inclusive, broad character and content of South Africa's first female Defense Minister Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu.
For Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu, South Africa’s current Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, the centrality of national security is not a contested proposition. Rather, what is contested is the notion that national security can be achieved solely by achieving a strong military. Consistent with her thinking, which in part, is shared among economic and military scholars, territorial security that is performed by the military is no more important than other social challenges such as poverty and inequality.
Geoff Harris (2002), Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management at the University of Natal, Durban, is an exponent of a demilitarised society. First, he acknowledges the changed global military landscape, noting that almost all armed conflicts now occur within countries rather than between them, typically between government forces and groups wishing to secede or take over government. Second, he observes that; worldwide, invasions of one country by another are very rare events. None of the remaining war-torn countries have borders with South Africa”, Prof. Harris adds that more people die each year of AIDS-related illness in South Africa and a further 60,000 from road accidents and interpersonal violence, than in all wars in Africa put together. Moreover, contends Prof. Harris, ‘there is sufficient evidence indicating how excessive military expenditure hinders economic growth and thereby development. Further evidence has also shown that one out of every poor person in a developing country is 33 times more likely to die as a result of ‘social neglect’(preventable disease and malnutrition) than as a result of an inter-country war’.
Need for a 'smart military paradigm'
The challenge raised by Harris, however, could be reframed. Does South Africa require a demilitarized army or a 'smarter and leaner army that is able to respond to security threats efficiently and yet remain responsive to social challenges? Arguably, there exists a number of alternative ways of achieving security; ways that are less costly and more effective than a conventional military whose operations are limited to military engagement only.
If current developments within the South African Defense Force are anything to go by, Dr. Sisulu appears up her alley. Within a year of her assuming leadership of the defense department, Sisulu has made visible interventions with respect to budget expenditures; including social interventions when it has been deemed material for army personnel to get involved. For instance, at the height of a nationwide strike by more than one million public workers in August 2010, the defense ministry promptly deployed soldiers to 37 hospitals to help keep basic health services running. Later, the ministry said military teams were called in to aid doctors and replace striking support staff in cleaning bed linen and providing meals.
Add to existing army operations which include cross-border security, peacekeeping initiatives in the continent and more, Sisulu appears fully aware of the cost implications. Her attention to military expenditure and due diligence is in no doubt, clearly signified by her department's placing on review several contracts for military hardware and canceling others outright.
There is no doubt that a strong military builds national pride, creates jobs, etc. The same could be said in leiu of South Africa's infamous “arms deal” in which over R50 billion was spent. Minister of Trade and Industry Rob Davies told parliament in September 2010 that the Strategic Defense Package, has created 73 000 jobs and has exceeded government’s expectations. Davies told the National Assembly the latest assessment, undertaken last year, of the creation of jobs by national industrial participation offsets showed they had created 85 000 direct and indirect jobs, with 73 000 from the arms deal.
However, perhaps not to be ignored is the question asked by Prof. Harris earlier;‘fine, but at what cost?’ Harris calculated that from a job creation perspective, 'the spending of R52.7 billion to create 65,000 jobs (originally projected figures) means that each job costs more than R800,000, which could employ a dozen teachers or nurses'. According to the learned Prof. Harris, 'this picture highlights the fact that military expenditure is invariably an extremely expensive way of creating jobs'.
What Prof. Harris does not allude to in his argument is that because South Africa is not at war; that fact alone, does not mean military preperedness must be treated as a secondary function of government. The opposite is true, ie. to the extent that the fiscus can handle, the South African military should seek to transform itself into a 'smarter', 'leaner' and 'more efficient' force; while, as Sisulu has repeatedly noted, 'responsive to societal goals and indeed the professional needs of every individual soldier'.
Ordinarily; evolving a 'smart' military must be accompanied, among other interventions, by a corresponding human development training programme. Signs of progress in that regard are visible. Case in point is the recent successful completion by Captain Catherine Labuschagne as one of four South African Air Force (SAAF) who took part in the first Operational Conversion Course (OCC) instructed by local SAAF pilots.
Captain Labuschagne made her solo Gripen flight at the South African airbase Makhado in the Limpopo province of South Africa. This will give her a place in the record books as the first female Gripen pilot.
The four newly qualified Gripen fighter pilots will strengthen SAAF and the 2 squadron which it is hoped will reach operational status sometime in 2011.
Recently the SAAF Gripen force, although still in a project phase and not formally an operational system, conducted a large part of the air policing during the FIFA World Cup.
The South African government ordered 26 Gripen C/D fighter aircraft in 1999 as part of a “strategic defense package” that acknowledges that future defense capabilities will increasingly rely in what is now commonly called network-centric operations. This is a new military doctrine or theory of war that prioritizes information advantage, enabled in part by information technology, into a competitive advantage through the robust networking of well informed geographically dispersed forces.
This technology does not come cheap but here it should be noted South Africa has consistently witnessed sharp declines with respect to military expenditure since 1994, this in spite of the media hoo haa.
Here is a simple graph showing the state of militarisation in South Africa. It shows military spending as a percentage of GDP (from the World Bank – just Google military GDP South Africa and you will get the data). The post-1994 decline is striking. The World Bank figures only go up to 2008. (Click on the graph for a larger image.)
Here is another graph that puts South Africa in some regional perspective. Recent increases have put South Africa well ahead of Malawi, Mozambique and Mauritius but well below the rest of the countries within the Southern Development Community (SADC).
The above scenario shows a low military expenditure versus GDP by comparison to other countries within the SADC region. In fact, it highlights a concerted effort by the post apartheid government in South Africa, to structure defense spending in manner that does not "bankrupt the state coffers" by exceeding the government's capacity to attend to other social concerns. The approach, which in South Africa has included 'strategic high-end defense purchaces', recognizes several variables, including the nature of armed conflict and the changed meaning of security in the past three decades.
Sisulu admits there are challenges,including among others, military spending oversight; hence her department has instituted several options to compliment existing measures aimed at ensuring that the final overall national budget is a monetary expression of the priorities of the nation, its choice between "weapons of war and the broader socio-economic goals”.
As 2010 came to a close, cabinet had approved two new but long-anticipated defence-related Bills for introduction to Parliament. They are the Military Veterans Bill and the South African Military Ombudsman Bill. The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the Military Veterans Bill will seek to establish, develop, promote and implement national policy and standards regarding military veterans and their dependants “to enhance the well-being and quality of life through progressive realisation of their socio-economic rights.”
A further amendment to the Defence Act is also on the cards, a separate statement from the Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans said. “In the next financial year [starting 01 April 2011] our priority would be to finalise the legislative process to remove unions in the SANDF,”
Following a rebellion by the South African armed forces, which happened on 15 August 2009, police responded with rubber bullets and teargas to disperse the protest described by the defense minister as a threat to national security. Four soldiers were taken to hospital and 18 were injured during the mutinous unrest which took place at the government Union Buildings in Pretoria. It can be argued this was the primary reason that led to a re-think on whether unions should be tolerated in the army.
“We are more than convinced that all the unions in the SANDF have no respect for national security their interest is collecting monthly affiliation funds from the poor soldiers” the ministry said.
The Military Ombudsman will be expected to attend to complaints arising from members of the Defence Force as well as members of the public “and to ensure speedy resolution of complaints within and against the Defence Force,” the statement added.
Currently complaints arising from the Defence Force are dealt with in terms of the Individual Grievance Regulation and by a military investigator embedded in the office of the Public Protector and through the army unions.
In response to this short-come, Sisulu appointed an interim defense commission on 9 September 2009, to advise on establishing a permanent National Defense Force Service Commission and a special dispensation for the conditions of service of members of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF), in matters both in the short-term and the long-term.
The commission's final report was submitted to the minister in November 2010 and is expected to undergo all the necessary deliberation and ratification processes.
The interim commission is chaired by Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Lebotsang Ronnie Bosielo and includes United Democratic Movement leader and retired general Bantu Holomisa, and Pieter Groenewald of the Freedom Front Plus, a veteran member of the Assembly's defence committee.
“By appointing members from such diverse backgrounds, some from outside the orbit of the military,allowed us for the first time, in this dispensation to have a bird's eye view of the SANDF since 1994,” Sisulu explains. It is initiatives such as alluded to above that speak to the inclusive, broad character and content of South Africa's first female Defense Minister Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Rich science Poor Democracy? South Africa / Australia bidding for the Square Kilometre Array
By Tula Dlamini
"Man must rise above the Earth - to the top of the atmosphere and beyond - for only then will he fully understand the world in which he lives."
Socrates
South Africa and Australia are the two countries that are finalists in a bid to host the world’s largest telescope called the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). The joint project by 19 countries is perhaps the single most significant development since the first man – Neil Armstrong - stepped out of the famous Apollo 11 space craft and landed on the moon in 1969.
The SKA will not necessarily bring light to the masses but while they toil in darkness – metaphorically speaking – the feudal aristocracy of global science plans to spend $2.5 billion on a radio telescope. Its proponents argue it may reveal if our days in this planet earth are numbered. It will explore the unknown – provide alternative views of the universe than those seen with the current telescopes. It will search for Earth-like planets and potential life elsewhere in the universe - test Albert Einstein’s theories of relativity - probe the so-called ‘dark ages’ – before stars and galaxies were formed about 13.7 billion years ago in an event called 'Big Bang'.
According to this theory – since the 'Big Bang' the universe has been expanding consistently. Scary as it might sound - scientists fear the possible reversal of this process. They do not know whether the density of matter in the universe is great enough to slow the expansion eventually – causing the universe to stop and ultimately collapsing back upon on itself. If that does happen – scientist have agreed to call that event when the universe suddenly ends – the 'Big Crunch'.
The 'Big Crunch' theory is not without is critics. You may have head about the groundbreaking lecture by Sir Roger Penrose called "What Happened Before the 'Big Bang'?" in which he concluded that not only is the universe expanding - it is accelerating - not slowing down - as was previously thought.
Sir Roger argues - "the 'big crunch' theory - that the universe would eventually shrink and collapse - is invalid".
This conclusion culminated in Sir Roger's new synthesis which he described as 'crazy ideas' - but as he points out, "the fact that (these ideas are) crazy doesn't mean you can't take them seriously!"
In many ways - the SKA is a frightening and expensive expedition for mankind - or at least thought-provoking. And whatever the outcome – the future of science will be vastly different from the past. It is scheduled for completion in 2023 in what developers say will be an extremely sensitive and versatile telescope - touted 50 times more efficient – powered by thousands of receptors - all linked together via a data communications network to a very large and powerful data processing facility on the core SKA site that is yet to be determined.
Who will host the SKA?
The process to determine the host country for the SKA is still ongoing. A decision is expected in 2012.
The SKA South Africa website specifies the entire Northern Cape Province, with the exception of the Sol Plaatje Municipality (Kimberley) as an astronomy advantage area. Within that an area of 12.5 million hectares is the main protected area - or radio astronomy reserve - for the SKA. This area is also referred to as the Karoo Central Astronomy Advantage Area. The rest of the advantage area includes areas where the last remaining true San (Bushman) people still live. It is hard to imagine theses locals are without some conceptions or ideas about the meaning of existence and its logic.
The Northern Cape - especially along the Orange and Vaal rivers - is rich in San rock engravings. The province is also rich in fossils - lies to the south of its most important asset - the mighty Orange River - which feeds the agriculture and alluvial diamonds industries.
The Australians have something similar in Western Australia; the Murchison region. Official figures say the area has an estimated population of 160 people. However - the native title representative body for the Traditional Owners of the Murchison - the Yamatji Land and Sea Council refutes the population census - claims to represent 24 different – mostly displaced Aboriginal groups - all with their own culture - language - and traditions.
Yamatji Marlpa'Yamatji' means Aboriginal 'man' in the Murchison.
Modern anthropology accepts that historically the Murchison was inhabited by the native aboriginal people. Yamatji is a direct response or challenge to those in authority and leadership who will never apologise to the thousands of Indigenous people who were taken from their families - their communities - their lands - their cultural ties ruptured - sometimes irreparably - but thankfully not always.
Both South Africa and the Australia bids are hugely supported by an elite consensus backed by a legislation; and both countries look to fund the SKA primarily from the public purse. Skills development - capabilities and expertise of those involved in astronomy and related scientific work has been the key focus so far. But equally - the role of satisfying human curiosity and knowledge creation must transcend formal education - allow interface with non-scientists. It’s a call for robust community outreach programmes to be integrated in the overall development of the SKA so as to ensure broad resident populations are not excluded.
One accepts that the frontiers of science have moved far away from the ordinary people but failure to factor broad participation in the process of knowledge creation will conspire to condemn others – particularly the so called pre literate societies - into extinction.
The score-card is not complete if it does not include the following questions:
1. Does the host have the pre-requisite broad political consensus that recognizes pure research in basic sciences as a common good that must attract public funding?
2. How will the SKA impact on local populations? What is expected of locals?
3. Does the host country provide sufficient institutional and legal mechanisms that ensure science education does not become the preserve of a few science elites but a right for all citizens who wish to embrace it – including the poor and marginalized in our midsts?
The SKA must face the abovementioned institutional challenges head on. If ignored – consider the future of science itself in doubt.
Rooting for South Africa
The history of scientific research is fraught with assumptions about generally everything – most of which unravel as soon as it is learnt. Yet this is not enough to rain the parade. African intellectuals and the continent's political leadership say owing to recent history of exploitation and colonization – Africa is running a deficit in science and innovation and that locating the SKA project in Africa is an opportunity for the continent to catch up – and to simultaneously drive the continent towards knowledge-based economies.
After all - in Africa – as well as among the so called pre literacy societies lies unexplored ‘indigenous knowledge systems’ that might help illuminate much of the discoveries already achieved through modern science
The elite consesus is loud and clear. At the 15th ordinary session of the assembly of heads of state and government held in July 2010 in Uganda – the African Union endorsed South Africa’s bid to host the SKA.
South Africa’s commitment is epitomized by the Astronomy Geographic Advantage Bill which was signed into law by former President Thabo Mbeki in 2007. The bill allocates the power to declare astronomy advantage areas to the Minister of Science and Technology which funds the SKA Project via the National Research Foundation.
“…and even if the SKA fails to resolve all its penciled assumptions -South Africa is already building the Karoo Array Telescope (MeerKAT) which is a forerunner instrument for the SKA - but will in its own right be amongst the largest and most powerful telescopes in the world,” says Dr Gatsha Mazithulela – Vice President - Research Infrastructure & National Research Facilities at the National Research Foundation.
MeerKAT is located nearby to the site proposed for the SKA near the small town of Carnarvon in the Northern Cape Province.
“Using Africa’s geographic advantage related to the southern hemisphere skies - the southern oceans – paleontological – floral - and other heritages - South Africa has taken a committed step in positioning the country as a destination for specialised activities in scientific research and development to an extent that the bid for the SKA is almost within grasp,” adds Mazithulela.
The five key science drivers for the SKA are outlined in the International SKA website as follows:
Cradle of life – this project will explore whether there are Earth-like planets around other stars, and whether they host intelligent life, thus helping to answer the eternal question of whether there is life elsewhere in the universe;
Probing the Dark Ages – this will explore the first black holes and stars, and help to answer the question of what happened after the big bang and before the first stars and galaxies formed;
The origin and evolution of cosmic magnetism - this will explore how magnetism affects the formation of stars and galaxies, and what maintains the present-day magnetic fields of galaxies, stars and planets;
Strong field tests of gravity using pulsars and black holes - this will help to test whether Einstein's theory of general relativity is the last word on gravity, for example, whether its predictions for black holes are correct, and whether the cosmos is filled with a gravitational wave background;
Galaxy evolution, cosmology, and dark matter - this will explore how galaxies are born and how they evolve, and seek a better understanding of the "dark energy" that fills the majority of the universe.
Several European countries,the USA,Canada,China,India including bid finalists Australia and South Africa are some of the participants in the SKA. It is a brave new world and countries are investing scarce public financial resources to figure Edwin Hubble’s theory of the expanding universe – while facing starry eyed at collapsing provision of primary health care - education – housing and jobs - to name but a few. Yet we all must concede; scientific research is essential for our economic future and human intelligence is the most valuable stuff in the universe.
Ke Nako – it is time for Africa.
See list of SKA partners and additional information here
See excerpt from a talk given by Roger Penrose on his theory of 'crazy science' here
"Man must rise above the Earth - to the top of the atmosphere and beyond - for only then will he fully understand the world in which he lives."
Socrates
South Africa and Australia are the two countries that are finalists in a bid to host the world’s largest telescope called the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). The joint project by 19 countries is perhaps the single most significant development since the first man – Neil Armstrong - stepped out of the famous Apollo 11 space craft and landed on the moon in 1969.
The SKA will not necessarily bring light to the masses but while they toil in darkness – metaphorically speaking – the feudal aristocracy of global science plans to spend $2.5 billion on a radio telescope. Its proponents argue it may reveal if our days in this planet earth are numbered. It will explore the unknown – provide alternative views of the universe than those seen with the current telescopes. It will search for Earth-like planets and potential life elsewhere in the universe - test Albert Einstein’s theories of relativity - probe the so-called ‘dark ages’ – before stars and galaxies were formed about 13.7 billion years ago in an event called 'Big Bang'.
According to this theory – since the 'Big Bang' the universe has been expanding consistently. Scary as it might sound - scientists fear the possible reversal of this process. They do not know whether the density of matter in the universe is great enough to slow the expansion eventually – causing the universe to stop and ultimately collapsing back upon on itself. If that does happen – scientist have agreed to call that event when the universe suddenly ends – the 'Big Crunch'.
The 'Big Crunch' theory is not without is critics. You may have head about the groundbreaking lecture by Sir Roger Penrose called "What Happened Before the 'Big Bang'?" in which he concluded that not only is the universe expanding - it is accelerating - not slowing down - as was previously thought.
Sir Roger argues - "the 'big crunch' theory - that the universe would eventually shrink and collapse - is invalid".
This conclusion culminated in Sir Roger's new synthesis which he described as 'crazy ideas' - but as he points out, "the fact that (these ideas are) crazy doesn't mean you can't take them seriously!"
In many ways - the SKA is a frightening and expensive expedition for mankind - or at least thought-provoking. And whatever the outcome – the future of science will be vastly different from the past. It is scheduled for completion in 2023 in what developers say will be an extremely sensitive and versatile telescope - touted 50 times more efficient – powered by thousands of receptors - all linked together via a data communications network to a very large and powerful data processing facility on the core SKA site that is yet to be determined.
Who will host the SKA?
The process to determine the host country for the SKA is still ongoing. A decision is expected in 2012.
The SKA South Africa website specifies the entire Northern Cape Province, with the exception of the Sol Plaatje Municipality (Kimberley) as an astronomy advantage area. Within that an area of 12.5 million hectares is the main protected area - or radio astronomy reserve - for the SKA. This area is also referred to as the Karoo Central Astronomy Advantage Area. The rest of the advantage area includes areas where the last remaining true San (Bushman) people still live. It is hard to imagine theses locals are without some conceptions or ideas about the meaning of existence and its logic.
The Northern Cape - especially along the Orange and Vaal rivers - is rich in San rock engravings. The province is also rich in fossils - lies to the south of its most important asset - the mighty Orange River - which feeds the agriculture and alluvial diamonds industries.
The Australians have something similar in Western Australia; the Murchison region. Official figures say the area has an estimated population of 160 people. However - the native title representative body for the Traditional Owners of the Murchison - the Yamatji Land and Sea Council refutes the population census - claims to represent 24 different – mostly displaced Aboriginal groups - all with their own culture - language - and traditions.
Yamatji Marlpa'Yamatji' means Aboriginal 'man' in the Murchison.
Modern anthropology accepts that historically the Murchison was inhabited by the native aboriginal people. Yamatji is a direct response or challenge to those in authority and leadership who will never apologise to the thousands of Indigenous people who were taken from their families - their communities - their lands - their cultural ties ruptured - sometimes irreparably - but thankfully not always.
Both South Africa and the Australia bids are hugely supported by an elite consensus backed by a legislation; and both countries look to fund the SKA primarily from the public purse. Skills development - capabilities and expertise of those involved in astronomy and related scientific work has been the key focus so far. But equally - the role of satisfying human curiosity and knowledge creation must transcend formal education - allow interface with non-scientists. It’s a call for robust community outreach programmes to be integrated in the overall development of the SKA so as to ensure broad resident populations are not excluded.
One accepts that the frontiers of science have moved far away from the ordinary people but failure to factor broad participation in the process of knowledge creation will conspire to condemn others – particularly the so called pre literate societies - into extinction.
The score-card is not complete if it does not include the following questions:
1. Does the host have the pre-requisite broad political consensus that recognizes pure research in basic sciences as a common good that must attract public funding?
2. How will the SKA impact on local populations? What is expected of locals?
3. Does the host country provide sufficient institutional and legal mechanisms that ensure science education does not become the preserve of a few science elites but a right for all citizens who wish to embrace it – including the poor and marginalized in our midsts?
The SKA must face the abovementioned institutional challenges head on. If ignored – consider the future of science itself in doubt.
Rooting for South Africa
The history of scientific research is fraught with assumptions about generally everything – most of which unravel as soon as it is learnt. Yet this is not enough to rain the parade. African intellectuals and the continent's political leadership say owing to recent history of exploitation and colonization – Africa is running a deficit in science and innovation and that locating the SKA project in Africa is an opportunity for the continent to catch up – and to simultaneously drive the continent towards knowledge-based economies.
After all - in Africa – as well as among the so called pre literacy societies lies unexplored ‘indigenous knowledge systems’ that might help illuminate much of the discoveries already achieved through modern science
The elite consesus is loud and clear. At the 15th ordinary session of the assembly of heads of state and government held in July 2010 in Uganda – the African Union endorsed South Africa’s bid to host the SKA.
South Africa’s commitment is epitomized by the Astronomy Geographic Advantage Bill which was signed into law by former President Thabo Mbeki in 2007. The bill allocates the power to declare astronomy advantage areas to the Minister of Science and Technology which funds the SKA Project via the National Research Foundation.
“…and even if the SKA fails to resolve all its penciled assumptions -South Africa is already building the Karoo Array Telescope (MeerKAT) which is a forerunner instrument for the SKA - but will in its own right be amongst the largest and most powerful telescopes in the world,” says Dr Gatsha Mazithulela – Vice President - Research Infrastructure & National Research Facilities at the National Research Foundation.
MeerKAT is located nearby to the site proposed for the SKA near the small town of Carnarvon in the Northern Cape Province.
“Using Africa’s geographic advantage related to the southern hemisphere skies - the southern oceans – paleontological – floral - and other heritages - South Africa has taken a committed step in positioning the country as a destination for specialised activities in scientific research and development to an extent that the bid for the SKA is almost within grasp,” adds Mazithulela.
The five key science drivers for the SKA are outlined in the International SKA website as follows:
Cradle of life – this project will explore whether there are Earth-like planets around other stars, and whether they host intelligent life, thus helping to answer the eternal question of whether there is life elsewhere in the universe;
Probing the Dark Ages – this will explore the first black holes and stars, and help to answer the question of what happened after the big bang and before the first stars and galaxies formed;
The origin and evolution of cosmic magnetism - this will explore how magnetism affects the formation of stars and galaxies, and what maintains the present-day magnetic fields of galaxies, stars and planets;
Strong field tests of gravity using pulsars and black holes - this will help to test whether Einstein's theory of general relativity is the last word on gravity, for example, whether its predictions for black holes are correct, and whether the cosmos is filled with a gravitational wave background;
Galaxy evolution, cosmology, and dark matter - this will explore how galaxies are born and how they evolve, and seek a better understanding of the "dark energy" that fills the majority of the universe.
Several European countries,the USA,Canada,China,India including bid finalists Australia and South Africa are some of the participants in the SKA. It is a brave new world and countries are investing scarce public financial resources to figure Edwin Hubble’s theory of the expanding universe – while facing starry eyed at collapsing provision of primary health care - education – housing and jobs - to name but a few. Yet we all must concede; scientific research is essential for our economic future and human intelligence is the most valuable stuff in the universe.
Ke Nako – it is time for Africa.
See list of SKA partners and additional information here
See excerpt from a talk given by Roger Penrose on his theory of 'crazy science' here
Friday, July 02, 2010
Why many fear South Africa might explode after the 2010 FIFA World Cup
By Tula Dlamini
At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I'll go out on a limb and echo those that say it's not all rosy in the Rainbow Nation. I will dare repeat the questions; will the majority reap the great FIFA World Cup promise after the final whistle? What will the games do for South Africa in general and the poor specifically? Will it help resolve the many socio-economic problems currently faced by the countless unemployed?
Theatre director, Mpumelelo Grootboom epitomizes views held by many: 'It's fantasy to believe the World Cup will help reduce poverty in South Africa'
“Who is profiting? Is it my colleagues in the theatre who have been struggling, economically for so many years? No….it is people with connections, who do not require the World Cup's miraculous help in the first place”.
Mpumelelo’s views are shared by millions of impoverished, forgotten immigrants, and ordinary South Africans, who simply can't afford the tickets for the games; and life in the slums of South Africa's biggest city, Johannesburg, is a daily nightmare.
The opposite is true for international visitors to South Africa. Most have hailed Africa's first World Cup as one of the most vibrant. They say contrary to what most media reported about this country, it's very beautiful, culturally vibrant and most have not had any incidence of crime or hostility.
Benefits
South Africa has spent more than R33-billion (a significant portion of which was spent on constructing new stadiums and renovating old ones), albeit, while millions of people remain in poverty. In addition, the country witnessed unprecedented infrastructure developments, including upgrades of road networks, airports and border management services.
The Gautrain, Africa's first high-speed rail line, opened its doors for the first time on 7 June 2010, attracting between 9000 and 10000 travelers on its first day, according to the Bombela Concession Company.
Construction on the 160-kilometre-an-hour maximum rail line started in 2006 and when finished in mid-2011, the 80-kilometre regional express train will link the capital of Pretoria with national economic hub Johannesburg.
A survey driven by Posterscope South Africa, the Out of home Consumer Survey (OCS) asked the question of, ’who will use the Gautrain’ beyond the “World Cup’ honeymoon period?
The OCS survey noted the current South African market consists of two main groups, those used to the much cheaper public transport system (taxis and trains) and those currently using their own transport/cars. The findings from private car users were as follows; 48% said that they were likely to use, whilst 81% mini-bus taxi users’ said that they are likely to use.
The survey concluded that owing to South Africa’s outdated and sometimes unreliable transport system, ‘convenience and innovation have been the biggest selling points of this new public transport venture’. The fare ranges from R16 (US$2.20); however trips from the airport to Sandton are expected to be about R100 (US$13) to R120 (US$16), one way.
1Goal project and Football for Hope project
Meanwhile, through FIFA's 1Goal project and Football for Hope project, the world football governing body says it aims to provide education for the many disadvantaged children on the continent. The project has committed more than $70 million (about R560 million) towards the development of football in Africa since South Africa was announced as a winning bidder in 2004.
The money is being used to develop state-of-the-art football projects and infrastructure across all 53 member states. Football turfs were being built across the continent as part of the "win in Africa with Africa" initiative.
"The initiative has helped all the 53 member associations in the continent develop state of the art football projects and improve domestic leagues," Thierry Regenass, FIFA's Development officer told Bua News – an SA government funded online news magazine.
But many say ‘the devil is in the detail’
Rebekah Kendal on 29 June 2010 wrote:
“Despite the pro-Africa enthusing and the general back-patting, FIFA is no friend of Africa….It strikes me as a little peculiar that a company which had its not-for-profit tax-free status re-affirmed by the Swiss parliament in March can walk away with profits of almost $1-billion. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that our World Cup (yip, the one hosted in Africa) is expected to contribute an additional 0.5 percent to the Swiss GDP”.
Kendal cites an article published by the City Press on which the South African Revenue Services (SARS) spokesperson Adrian Lackay sums up the financial situation: "From the perspective of what we spent as a country and from what the country stands to make in terms of revenue and profits it is almost negligible”.
"Our approach to the World Cup has been that it was never going to be a revenue-raising exercise. Certainly it would be wrong to view the World Cup as a significant contributor in itself. The concessions we had to give to FIFA are simply too demanding and overwhelming for us to have material monetary benefits."
Kendal concludes that it is wrong to take more than you should simply because you can. “For FIFA to do what the rest of the world has been doing to Africa for centuries under the guise of condescension is morally reprehensible…particularly for an organisation which claims to not be about profit”.
JOBS
For the well stocked armies of the unemployed…at this point it's all about three things…JOBS...JOBS... and — you guessed it — JOBS. Here again, many pray the dam will hold — especially in the wake of the lousy jobs numbers released 29 June 2010 by Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA’s).
That more than raises the question whether or not this idea of a “World Cup” inspired economic boom is sustainable; considering many construction projects having been completed for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, “the construction sector shed 50 000 employees, representing a 10,9% decline, year-on-year ?
According to Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES); “the number of people employed in the formal sector declined by 1%, or 79 000 employees, during the first quarter of 2010, compared with the fourth quarter of 2009”. But, large discrepancies are noted in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) which showed that 140 000 jobs had been shed, nearly double the QES figure.
Whereas the QES gives a better picture with regards to trends within formal businesses and industry - the QLFS covers both formal and informal sector jobs, including agriculture and households.
The outcome is visible in the 2010 National Budget. Government forecast is for debt to rise to 44 percent of the GDP in 2015/2016, just to tread water, after which it will begin to decline gradually. And after 16 years of ‘huge government spending’ and SA consumers running up the credit cards — like a horse that's been ridden too far, too fast, for far too long, skeptics say the country has basically reached a point of fatigue which makes it nearly impossible to grow the economy out of such a mess.
With such a picture - one might as well infer that the SA government tried to float a lead balloon by hosting the World Cup. Why? Because, while the World Cup could have triggered consumer spending and added a confidence boost in the economy; ultimately, when the population does not have jobs (there's that word again), they don't spend enough money to keep the economy all afloat. Of-course, tourist will spend during the games but will not return to SA ‘when the pooh hits the fan’. Social protests by the ‘poor’ might render the streets ungovernable if their plight is not addressed.
The fears are not without context as Mpumelelo puts it: “In the last six years the racial tensions in South Africa have boiled over. The assassinations of right-wing extremists and apartheid advocate Eugene Terre Blanche and the populist speeches of Julius Malema, the president of the youth organisation of the ANC, have brought the situation to a head. Many felt the explosion was imminent”.
At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I'll go out on a limb and echo those that say it's not all rosy in the Rainbow Nation. I will dare repeat the questions; will the majority reap the great FIFA World Cup promise after the final whistle? What will the games do for South Africa in general and the poor specifically? Will it help resolve the many socio-economic problems currently faced by the countless unemployed?
Theatre director, Mpumelelo Grootboom epitomizes views held by many: 'It's fantasy to believe the World Cup will help reduce poverty in South Africa'
“Who is profiting? Is it my colleagues in the theatre who have been struggling, economically for so many years? No….it is people with connections, who do not require the World Cup's miraculous help in the first place”.
Mpumelelo’s views are shared by millions of impoverished, forgotten immigrants, and ordinary South Africans, who simply can't afford the tickets for the games; and life in the slums of South Africa's biggest city, Johannesburg, is a daily nightmare.
The opposite is true for international visitors to South Africa. Most have hailed Africa's first World Cup as one of the most vibrant. They say contrary to what most media reported about this country, it's very beautiful, culturally vibrant and most have not had any incidence of crime or hostility.
Benefits
South Africa has spent more than R33-billion (a significant portion of which was spent on constructing new stadiums and renovating old ones), albeit, while millions of people remain in poverty. In addition, the country witnessed unprecedented infrastructure developments, including upgrades of road networks, airports and border management services.
The Gautrain, Africa's first high-speed rail line, opened its doors for the first time on 7 June 2010, attracting between 9000 and 10000 travelers on its first day, according to the Bombela Concession Company.
Construction on the 160-kilometre-an-hour maximum rail line started in 2006 and when finished in mid-2011, the 80-kilometre regional express train will link the capital of Pretoria with national economic hub Johannesburg.
A survey driven by Posterscope South Africa, the Out of home Consumer Survey (OCS) asked the question of, ’who will use the Gautrain’ beyond the “World Cup’ honeymoon period?
The OCS survey noted the current South African market consists of two main groups, those used to the much cheaper public transport system (taxis and trains) and those currently using their own transport/cars. The findings from private car users were as follows; 48% said that they were likely to use, whilst 81% mini-bus taxi users’ said that they are likely to use.
The survey concluded that owing to South Africa’s outdated and sometimes unreliable transport system, ‘convenience and innovation have been the biggest selling points of this new public transport venture’. The fare ranges from R16 (US$2.20); however trips from the airport to Sandton are expected to be about R100 (US$13) to R120 (US$16), one way.
1Goal project and Football for Hope project
Meanwhile, through FIFA's 1Goal project and Football for Hope project, the world football governing body says it aims to provide education for the many disadvantaged children on the continent. The project has committed more than $70 million (about R560 million) towards the development of football in Africa since South Africa was announced as a winning bidder in 2004.
The money is being used to develop state-of-the-art football projects and infrastructure across all 53 member states. Football turfs were being built across the continent as part of the "win in Africa with Africa" initiative.
"The initiative has helped all the 53 member associations in the continent develop state of the art football projects and improve domestic leagues," Thierry Regenass, FIFA's Development officer told Bua News – an SA government funded online news magazine.
But many say ‘the devil is in the detail’
Rebekah Kendal on 29 June 2010 wrote:
“Despite the pro-Africa enthusing and the general back-patting, FIFA is no friend of Africa….It strikes me as a little peculiar that a company which had its not-for-profit tax-free status re-affirmed by the Swiss parliament in March can walk away with profits of almost $1-billion. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that our World Cup (yip, the one hosted in Africa) is expected to contribute an additional 0.5 percent to the Swiss GDP”.
Kendal cites an article published by the City Press on which the South African Revenue Services (SARS) spokesperson Adrian Lackay sums up the financial situation: "From the perspective of what we spent as a country and from what the country stands to make in terms of revenue and profits it is almost negligible”.
"Our approach to the World Cup has been that it was never going to be a revenue-raising exercise. Certainly it would be wrong to view the World Cup as a significant contributor in itself. The concessions we had to give to FIFA are simply too demanding and overwhelming for us to have material monetary benefits."
Kendal concludes that it is wrong to take more than you should simply because you can. “For FIFA to do what the rest of the world has been doing to Africa for centuries under the guise of condescension is morally reprehensible…particularly for an organisation which claims to not be about profit”.
JOBS
For the well stocked armies of the unemployed…at this point it's all about three things…JOBS...JOBS... and — you guessed it — JOBS. Here again, many pray the dam will hold — especially in the wake of the lousy jobs numbers released 29 June 2010 by Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA’s).
That more than raises the question whether or not this idea of a “World Cup” inspired economic boom is sustainable; considering many construction projects having been completed for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, “the construction sector shed 50 000 employees, representing a 10,9% decline, year-on-year ?
According to Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES); “the number of people employed in the formal sector declined by 1%, or 79 000 employees, during the first quarter of 2010, compared with the fourth quarter of 2009”. But, large discrepancies are noted in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) which showed that 140 000 jobs had been shed, nearly double the QES figure.
Whereas the QES gives a better picture with regards to trends within formal businesses and industry - the QLFS covers both formal and informal sector jobs, including agriculture and households.
The outcome is visible in the 2010 National Budget. Government forecast is for debt to rise to 44 percent of the GDP in 2015/2016, just to tread water, after which it will begin to decline gradually. And after 16 years of ‘huge government spending’ and SA consumers running up the credit cards — like a horse that's been ridden too far, too fast, for far too long, skeptics say the country has basically reached a point of fatigue which makes it nearly impossible to grow the economy out of such a mess.
With such a picture - one might as well infer that the SA government tried to float a lead balloon by hosting the World Cup. Why? Because, while the World Cup could have triggered consumer spending and added a confidence boost in the economy; ultimately, when the population does not have jobs (there's that word again), they don't spend enough money to keep the economy all afloat. Of-course, tourist will spend during the games but will not return to SA ‘when the pooh hits the fan’. Social protests by the ‘poor’ might render the streets ungovernable if their plight is not addressed.
The fears are not without context as Mpumelelo puts it: “In the last six years the racial tensions in South Africa have boiled over. The assassinations of right-wing extremists and apartheid advocate Eugene Terre Blanche and the populist speeches of Julius Malema, the president of the youth organisation of the ANC, have brought the situation to a head. Many felt the explosion was imminent”.
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