Why many fear South Africa might explode after the 2010 FIFA World Cup

By Tula Dlamini

At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I'll go out on a limb and echo those that say it's not all rosy in the Rainbow Nation. I will dare repeat the questions; will the majority reap the great FIFA World Cup promise after the final whistle? What will the games do for South Africa in general and the poor specifically? Will it help resolve the many socio-economic problems currently faced by the countless unemployed?

Theatre director, Mpumelelo Grootboom epitomizes views held by many: 'It's fantasy to believe the World Cup will help reduce poverty in South Africa'

“Who is profiting? Is it my colleagues in the theatre who have been struggling, economically for so many years? No….it is people with connections, who do not require the World Cup's miraculous help in the first place”.

Mpumelelo’s views are shared by millions of impoverished, forgotten immigrants, and ordinary South Africans, who simply can't afford the tickets for the games; and life in the slums of South Africa's biggest city, Johannesburg, is a daily nightmare.

The opposite is true for international visitors to South Africa. Most have hailed Africa's first World Cup as one of the most vibrant. They say contrary to what most media reported about this country, it's very beautiful, culturally vibrant and most have not had any incidence of crime or hostility.

Benefits

South Africa has spent more than R33-billion (a significant portion of which was spent on constructing new stadiums and renovating old ones), albeit, while millions of people remain in poverty. In addition, the country witnessed unprecedented infrastructure developments, including upgrades of road networks, airports and border management services.

The Gautrain, Africa's first high-speed rail line, opened its doors for the first time on 7 June 2010, attracting between 9000 and 10000 travelers on its first day, according to the Bombela Concession Company.

Construction on the 160-kilometre-an-hour maximum rail line started in 2006 and when finished in mid-2011, the 80-kilometre regional express train will link the capital of Pretoria with national economic hub Johannesburg.

A survey driven by Posterscope South Africa, the Out of home Consumer Survey (OCS) asked the question of, ’who will use the Gautrain’ beyond the “World Cup’ honeymoon period?

The OCS survey noted the current South African market consists of two main groups, those used to the much cheaper public transport system (taxis and trains) and those currently using their own transport/cars. The findings from private car users were as follows; 48% said that they were likely to use, whilst 81% mini-bus taxi users’ said that they are likely to use.

The survey concluded that owing to South Africa’s outdated and sometimes unreliable transport system, ‘convenience and innovation have been the biggest selling points of this new public transport venture’. The fare ranges from R16 (US$2.20); however trips from the airport to Sandton are expected to be about R100 (US$13) to R120 (US$16), one way.

1Goal project and Football for Hope project

Meanwhile, through FIFA's 1Goal project and Football for Hope project, the world football governing body says it aims to provide education for the many disadvantaged children on the continent. The project has committed more than $70 million (about R560 million) towards the development of football in Africa since South Africa was announced as a winning bidder in 2004.

The money is being used to develop state-of-the-art football projects and infrastructure across all 53 member states. Football turfs were being built across the continent as part of the "win in Africa with Africa" initiative.

"The initiative has helped all the 53 member associations in the continent develop state of the art football projects and improve domestic leagues," Thierry Regenass, FIFA's Development officer told Bua News – an SA government funded online news magazine.

But many say ‘the devil is in the detail’

Rebekah Kendal on 29 June 2010 wrote:

“Despite the pro-Africa enthusing and the general back-patting, FIFA is no friend of Africa….It strikes me as a little peculiar that a company which had its not-for-profit tax-free status re-affirmed by the Swiss parliament in March can walk away with profits of almost $1-billion. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that our World Cup (yip, the one hosted in Africa) is expected to contribute an additional 0.5 percent to the Swiss GDP”.

Kendal cites an article published by the City Press on which the South African Revenue Services (SARS) spokesperson Adrian Lackay sums up the financial situation: "From the perspective of what we spent as a country and from what the country stands to make in terms of revenue and profits it is almost negligible”.

"Our approach to the World Cup has been that it was never going to be a revenue-raising exercise. Certainly it would be wrong to view the World Cup as a significant contributor in itself. The concessions we had to give to FIFA are simply too demanding and overwhelming for us to have material monetary benefits."

Kendal concludes that it is wrong to take more than you should simply because you can. “For FIFA to do what the rest of the world has been doing to Africa for centuries under the guise of condescension is morally reprehensible…particularly for an organisation which claims to not be about profit”.

JOBS

For the well stocked armies of the unemployed…at this point it's all about three things…JOBS...JOBS... and — you guessed it — JOBS. Here again, many pray the dam will hold — especially in the wake of the lousy jobs numbers released 29 June 2010 by Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA’s).

That more than raises the question whether or not this idea of a “World Cup” inspired economic boom is sustainable; considering many construction projects having been completed for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, “the construction sector shed 50 000 employees, representing a 10,9% decline, year-on-year ?

According to Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES); “the number of people employed in the formal sector declined by 1%, or 79 000 employees, during the first quarter of 2010, compared with the fourth quarter of 2009”. But, large discrepancies are noted in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) which showed that 140 000 jobs had been shed, nearly double the QES figure.

Whereas the QES gives a better picture with regards to trends within formal businesses and industry - the QLFS covers both formal and informal sector jobs, including agriculture and households.

The outcome is visible in the 2010 National Budget. Government forecast is for debt to rise to 44 percent of the GDP in 2015/2016, just to tread water, after which it will begin to decline gradually. And after 16 years of ‘huge government spending’ and SA consumers running up the credit cards — like a horse that's been ridden too far, too fast, for far too long, skeptics say the country has basically reached a point of fatigue which makes it nearly impossible to grow the economy out of such a mess.

With such a picture - one might as well infer that the SA government tried to float a lead balloon by hosting the World Cup. Why? Because, while the World Cup could have triggered consumer spending and added a confidence boost in the economy; ultimately, when the population does not have jobs (there's that word again), they don't spend enough money to keep the economy all afloat. Of-course, tourist will spend during the games but will not return to SA ‘when the pooh hits the fan’. Social protests by the ‘poor’ might render the streets ungovernable if their plight is not addressed.

The fears are not without context as Mpumelelo puts it: “In the last six years the racial tensions in South Africa have boiled over. The assassinations of right-wing extremists and apartheid advocate Eugene Terre Blanche and the populist speeches of Julius Malema, the president of the youth organisation of the ANC, have brought the situation to a head. Many felt the explosion was imminent”.