AFRI-INDABA

The 17th Ordinary Summit of the AU is being convened under the theme of ‘Accelerating Youth Empowerment for Sustainable Development’.

2011-06-24T09:03:00.000-07:00

Compiled by Tula Dlamini

Sources: UNISOM; UNIMIS; African Union; World Bank Report 2010; IMF 2009; UN Development Index 2010; Huffington Post; ICC; Reuters; World Fact Book; CPA Agreement; Sudan Tribune; Al Jazeera; Amnesty International; Pambuzuka

Overview

The 17th African Union Summit takes place from 23 June to 1 July 2011 in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea. The Summit takes place in the context of large scale political disaffection, particularly among youths in Africa who have responded through active participation in protests against their governments.

Youth in Africa are unique in having a legal instrument dedicated to them, namely the Youth Charter (2006), which came into force in 2009, and has been signed by 38 and ratified by 24 of 53 member states.

African leaders understand that the continent’s greatest resource is its youthful population and that through their active and full participation - Africans can face up to the difficulties that lie ahead. Commitments have already been made towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, there is reason to be concerned about the general condition of young people in Africa, many of whom are marginalized from mainstream society through inequalities in income, wealth and power, unemployment and underemployment, infected and affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, living in situations of poverty and hunger, experiencing illiteracy and poor quality educational systems, restricted access to health services and to information, exposure to violence including gender violence, engaging in armed conflicts and experiencing various forms of discrimination. These are some of the issues that will likely be discussed at the upcoming 17th Summit of AU in Equatorial Guinea.

The Summit will also discuss peace and security in Africa broadly.
Over and above the unfolding security developments in Libya, Sudan, Somalia and Ivory Coast, critics have questioned the rationale of hosting the summit in Equatorial Guinea arguing that the context of Equatorial Guinea today could not be further from the values and principles of the African Union. They say the government is spending more on the summit than it does on education and health per year combined.

In the last few weeks, over 100 students and political opposition leaders have been arrested.

But perhaps, most damming for Equatorial Guinea is the fact the country has ratified less than 12 of over 100 of the AU’s treaties.

Analysts are asking the question whether the time has come for some minimum standards for hosting a Presidency and the summit.

Youth in Africa - Key facts:

1. Close to half of the population in Africa falls between the ages of 15 and 24, within the scope of youth as defined by the African Youth Charter.
2. Three in five youth are unemployed
3. Three quarters live below the poverty line of less than US 1$ a day.
4. Most governments in African countries do have youth policies that aim to empower youth. These policies in most cases go un-accompanied by costed-Action Plans for monitoring and accountability.
5. Various programmes targeted at youth are offered by governments and also by civil society. However, these programmes are largely uncoordinated due to weak frameworks on linkages of youth development to broader development objectives; consequently it has been difficult to account for inputs, outcomes and impact for these programmes
6. Few countries have established Ministries which are charged with the responsibility of youth affairs. However, these ministries do not have an adequate structure that reaches the lowest level-districts, and in most cases these ministries are under staffed, and more than often unequipped with technical capacity in working with a youth analysis framework.
7. Most of these Administrative structures do not receive adequate funding from governments resources to effectively implement youth empowerment programmes.

Implications

Economic disaffection fuels political disaffection and reduces the potential for active citizen engagement during and in between elections.

African Union position on Youth Development

Youth in Africa are unique in having a legal instrument dedicated to them, namely the Youth Charter (2006), which came into force in 2009, and has been signed by 38 and ratified by 24 of 53 member states.

The Charter calls for the following key elements:

• promotion of active youth participation in all aspects of development and at all levels;
• the formulation of a comprehensive national youth policy and programmes informed by consultation with youth and resourced adequately;
• collation and provision of accurate data on youth including employment, unemployment, and underemployment;
• creation of an enabling environment for youth entrepreneurship, and provision of quality and appropriate reproductive health services and access to treatment, among others.

According to the State of the Union Report of 2010, which tracks the implementation of continental standards and instruments, unlike the modest progress recorded in the case of children; Africa’s youth have seen more new policies and programmes that target their livelihoods, civic participation.

National youth policies were passed in Ghana (2007), Nigeria (2007), Kenya (2008) and South Africa (2009) aimed at promoting employment, social protection schemes and youth funds. Rwanda has even provided for two youth seats in their Chamber of Deputies.

High Level Panel on Financing for Youth Development

The issue of youth has been discussed at the level of the AU, particularly in the wake of the North African crises, wherein the 275th Peace and Security Council meeting called for the need to provide the youth with economic opportunity and avenues for greater participation in political decision making to avoid undue discontent. A High Level Panel on Financing for Youth Development was established which called for the following;

1. To the African Union Member States:

• Endorse, mobilize, and allocate resources for the Medium Term Priorities for the Plan of Action for the African Youth Decade
• Enact age specific standards and quotas for youth in parliament and appointment to government positions
• Pass laws to ensure opportunities for youth in private and public companies
• Facilitate and create mechanisms for Diaspora youth to contribute to development efforts

2. To the African Union Commission (AUC):

• Utilize the APRM and NEPAD to monitor and report on the implementation of the Charter

PEACE AND SECURITY

Equatorial Guinea

Risk for a revolt is high in Equatorial Guinea ahead of the 17th Heads of State African Union summit due on 01 July 2011. The rights group says political opponents of President Teodoro Obiang Nguema – the current chair of the AU. Nguema’s administration has allegedly arrested and detained around 100 students in recent days.

Amnesty said the arrests appeared to be "a pre-emptive measure to prevent any demonstrations during the summit".

President Nguema exerts almost total control over the political system; and, though oil has given the country wealth, the marchers say ordinary citizens are yet to reap the benefits.

How will the AU respond to the situation currently obtaining in Equatorial Guinea? Will it ignore the demonstrators and risk being perceived as supporting President Obiang – who has ruled the country for 32 uninterrupted years since seizing power in a 1979 coup or will the AU condemn its own chairperson?

The AU on 16 February 2011 expressed solidarity with the Egyptian people, saying “their desire for democracy was consistent with the relevant instruments of the AU and the continent's commitment to promote democratization, good governance and respect for human rights." Further, the AU on 23 February 2011 condemned "disproportionate force" against the protesters.

Whatever, the AU pronounces on Equatorial Guinea, either way – trouble is looming in Obiang land. A tacit embrace for the demonstrators will encourage them, while ignoring them can only lend currency to view that the AU supports tyranny in Africa, thus jeopardizing any prospects of AU driven future interventions in conflict situations around the continent.
General state of peace and security in Africa

The 17th AU Assembly in Equatorial Guinea takes place in a context marked by major developments in Tunisia and Egypt, the conflict in Libya, as well as the situations in Somalia, and Sudan, with the persistence of the Darfur crisis and the threats that the current tension in Southern Kordofan and Abyei poses to the progress made in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Sudan

More than 2 million people have died in Southern Sudan over the past two decades due to war-related causes and famine, and millions have been displaced from their homes.

Brief Timeline: 2002 - 2011

• July 2002: Sudan government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) sign a peace framework agreement in Kenya.
• 26 May 2004: Government of Sudan and the SPLM signed three protocols on Power Sharing, on the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile, and on the long disputed Abyei area.
• 5 June 2004: The parties signed “the Nairobi Declaration on the Final Phase of Peace in the Sudan.”
• 9 January 2005: Government of Sudan and the SPLM signed the final peace agreement at a ceremony held in Nairobi, Kenya.
• 11-15 April 2010: Sudan held national and regional elections.
• 8-15 January 2011: South Sudan held a referendum to decide on unity or independence.

There are implications for its foreign policy. The country has invested heavily in peacekeeping, capacity building and mediation efforts in Sudan.

Talking points and Important Issues to watch:

Africa's youngest nation is born

On 09 July 2011, Southern Sudan officially secedes from North Sudan, becoming an independent country.

South Sudan faces major challenges. The list is long but the following are noted:

Borders

Even though North Sudan appears resigned to the South’s secession, the two countries will still have to agree on the precise border that divides them. One major piece of that puzzle is Abyei, an oil-rich region that was supposed to hold its own referendum and decide whether it would secede along with the South or remain with the North. Due to disagreements between North and South Sudanese leaders, Abyei’s referendum was postponed indefinitely.

Now that the voting is over, Abyei remains a “potential hotspot.”
The Southern People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) has said that if the Abyei referendum is not conducted, the only remaining option is for Abyei to be transferred to the south by presidential decree.

On the northern side, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has said he will not accept Abyei being part of the south.

The seriousness of the situation in Abyei is so great that one analyst calls it “the key to South Sudan’s stability.” Without a solution that both governments and the people of Abyei can accept, violence may escalate.

Oil

Oil is the primary driver of Sudan’s economy.

Economic prospects for both Northern and Southern Sudan remain linked to continued oil production.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, citing the International Monetary Fund, oil represented 98 percent of total revenues for the 2010 for South Sudan compared to Khartoum at 65 percent.

At 98% - Southern Sudan is totally dependent on exports of crude that run through the pipeline and refinery system in the north. Negotiations on the future management of the oil sector are thus crucial to the survival of both north and south Sudan after July 2011.

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2005 (which provided for the referendum) established a 50-50 revenue-sharing agreement between North and South, but now the two countries will have to negotiate a new agreement on revenues.

Three-quarters of the oil is in the South, but the North has the pipelines and refineries.

North Sudan has threatened to cut supplies to the South if there is any breach of the 50-50 revenue sharing agreement signed under the 2005 CPA.

Integration and Citizenship

South Sudan will need to develop a basis for national integration, citizenship, and unity that relies on more than just opposition to the North. This is a serious challenge that is compounded by the return of refugees and members of the Diaspora. Many were born in refugee camps across Africa, and others grew up in overseas countries of Europe, America, Asia and elsewhere.

Political Reform

South Sudan will face the challenge of allowing multiple social voices to express their opinions unhindered.

The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement — dominates the political arena but might need to transform itself into a broad-based political party so as to preserve the goal shared by all southerners — self-determination. This will require a genuine opening of political space.

Other reforms include the demobilisation and reintegration of armed forces linked to the SPLA which remains a key concern. Nearly 40% of the Southern Sudanese government budget goes to the army, meaning that demobilisation and reintegration of army units is a priority after independence.

Development

UNDP 2010 report provides alarming statistics on education, disease, sustainability, and other issues in South Sudan, notably;

• 70 percent of the people in South Sudan have no access to any form of healthcare
• one in five women die in childbirth and;
• one in five children fail to make it to their fifth birthday

These problems are not just economic – they also threaten to undercut political stability.

The AU High-Level Panel on Sudan has been involved in attempts aimed at a negotiated settlement around a range of outstanding issues. The three-member Panel is led by former President Thabo Mbeki and includes former Burundi President, Pierre Buyoya and former Nigerian Head of State, General Abdulsalami Abubakar.

While they are yet to resolve many of the issues, there has been developments on many fronts, including agreement that neither territory would support the respective oppositions.

Abyei - an oil-rich area on the border between the North and South of Sudan
This tense region is a ‘deadly war waiting to happen’. A spark could ignite renewed violence and plunge the whole area back into war. Abyei has seen its share of bloodshed. In 2008, northern and southern forces clashed. Hundreds were killed and thousands were displaced as Abyei town was razed. Residents of Abyei feel left behind by the South and threatened by the North.

A region of nomadic Arab Misseriya pastoralists and African Ngok Dinka, Abyei was supposed to have had its own referendum on whether to join the new South or remain with Khartoum. But lingering questions, such as who has grazing rights to the land and who is eligible to vote, have postponed Abyei’s referendum indefinitely.

As a result, the Dinka of Abyei have threatened to hold their own unilateral referendum which would likely end in the region aligning itself with the South, a result that would be unrecognized by the North and by nomadic Arab Misseriya pastoralists who do not favor a split Sudan. The tension could cause renewed fighting.

On 19 May 2011, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) invaded Abyei and simultaneously, President Omar El Bashir dissolved the Abyei Administration, arguing his government had intervened in order to restore law and order. An estimated 50 000 people were displaced.

Abyei was expected to hold a referendum simultaneously with the vote on Southern Sudan in January 2011 but this did not happen.

The region's disputed status has long been recognized as a potential 'trigger for violence'. As the date (09 July 2011) for the secession of Southern Sudan edges closer, control of Abyei has remained one of the biggest points of contention in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

Temporary Agreement on Abyei

On 20 June 2011, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia an agreement on Abyei was signed between Khartoum and SPLM. This agreement, which is a temporary arrangement, calls on withdrawal of both Khartoum and South Sudanese armed forces from designated Abyei area, where they will be replaced by a peacekeeping force, composed of Ethiopian troops. The agreement also calls for establishment of civil administration as well as rapid repatriation programme for the residents of Abyei—who were driven away from their homestead, due to forceful occupation of Abyei by Khartoum armed forces.

The Ethiopian peacekeepers will act as a buffer, between the South and North, and their mandate is just to protect civilians within its area of control in Abyei, but to also effectively monitor, intercept and prevent border incursions by armed groups – often consisting of proxy militias on horse backs, carrying AK47s and swords.

But given their limited mandate, which excludes engaging militarily with the armed groups, how will these peacekeepers deal with possibly large scale firefights with any of these armed elements? This is worrying considering the number of the Ethiopian troops to be deployed in the area is only one brigade and given the vastness of the land and number of different armed groups who roam the area.

Future of UN Peacekeeping in Sudan

The future of the UN peacekeeping force is under debate. Khartoum has indicated that it should be disbanded, or - if it’s mandate is to be extended by the United Nations - that it should only be based in Southern Sudan.

Darfur

Faced with renewed fighting in early 2011, the UN and AU, which oversee the United Nations/African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), urged conclusion of the Doha talks.

A draft peace agreement (Darfur Political Agreement) was handed on 27 April 2011 by the mediation in Doha to the Sudanese parties participating in the Doha peace process: Government of Sudan (GOS), Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and Liberation and Equality Movement (LJM).

The next phase is the Darfur Political Process (DPP), to be facilitated with support from the joint peacekeeping mission. The goal of the DPP is to allow Darfuri stakeholders to be directly involved in supporting and implementing a peace agreement.

The UN and AU have different positions on the process: the UN secretary-general urges the process be based on the outcome of the Doha negotiations, while the AU urges it to proceed concurrently, irrespective of Doha’s outcome.

In contrast to the Doha-based peace talks between the government and rebels outside of Darfur with international mediators, the DPP aims to engage Darfuri civil society in a more indigenous and inclusive political process.

Participation by interested civil society groups in the DPP is likely to face a brick wall, given the fact that the government has in the past failed to engage civil society in Darfur talks. Allegations abound of routine uses security forces to harass and arrest civil society and political party activists, journalists, and perceived opponents.

With many questions about the DPP still pending, UNAMID has set up a secretariat to oversee the process, while the UN and AU, and a group of special envoys to Sudan, have stressed the need for the Sudanese government to create the “enabling environment” for the process to be credible.

In March 2011, the government of Sudan announced it will hold an administrative referendum in July 2011 to determine whether Darfur should be administered as one region or remain three states. Rebel movements and the US argued that this interferes with the Doha peace talks, where the status of Darfur is a key issue.

Southern Kordofan

A humanitarian crisis is unfolding in Southern Kordofan, following the armed conflict that broke out between the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA), on 5 June 2011.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced from their homes and face hunger and diseases, due to fighting, aerial bombardment and the interruption of essential supplies. There are also reports of human rights abuses.

The Chairperson of the Commission, Mr. Jean Ping confirmed the humanitarian crisis affecting the civilian population in all parts of Southern Kordofan and called upon the Parties to engage in current negotiations towards a political settlement, under the facilitation of the AU High‐Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP). The AU insists that there is no military solution to the current political conflict and that the Parties should urgently agree to a cessation of hostilities.

AU and the ICC decision on al-Bashir

The African Union (AU) has consistently argued that the decision by the International Criminal Court (ICC) to charge President Omar al-Bashir with war crimes will harm the peace process in Sudan.

"The AU reiterates that the search for justice should be pursued in a manner not detrimental to the search for peace. The latest decision by the ICC runs in the opposite direction," the bloc said in a statement.
The upcoming 17th Summit of the AU in Equatorial Guinea is an opportunity to follow up on recent developments on this matter.

Somalia

The Kampala Accord

The Kampala Accord was signed on 9 June 2011 by the President of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, and the Speaker of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP), Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden. The Accord seeks to end the current transitional period, with a deferral of elections for one year.

The UN Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) and the AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) are collectively tasked with facilitating and supporting the implementation of the Kampala Accord and to further peace and reconciliation in Somalia.

The next phase is the drawing up of a roadmap, with benchmarks, timelines and compliance mechanisms, to be considered by the envisaged consultative meeting in Mogadishu soon, as essential for the implementation of the transitional tasks within the next twelve months.

The TFG Prime Minister, Mr. Mohamed “Farmajo” Abdullahi on 19 June 2011 resigned from his position, as part of the implementation of the Kampala Accord.

AMISOM

The African Union Mission in Somalia (UMISOM) was deployed to Mogadishu in March 2007 with the mandate to support the Djibouti Peace Process by protecting Transitional Federal Institutions and TFG personnel, and by securing critical infrastructure in Mogadishu, including the airport and the seaport.

By October 2010, AMISOM consisted of over 8,000 peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi.

Key actors in Somalia’s politics include;

• the provisionally autonomous regional state of Puntland which occupies the northeastern section of post‐independence Somalia
• the self‐declared independent state of Somaliland which occupies Somalia’s northwestern section
• the internationally‐recognized Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) which controls part of the capital Mogadishu, with defacto sovereignty over all of post‐independence Somalia, according to international powers
• the armed Islamist revolutionary opposition to the T.F.G. (Harakat al‐Shabaab Mujahideen – H.S.M.) which controls most of the southern and central section of “Somalia” and has ambition to control all of it.
• the African Union (A.U.), which originates the peacekeeping mission (UNOSOM) that protects the T.F.G. in the capital Mogadishu
• AMISOM
• the Western donor powers and I.G.O.s that fund the T.F.G.
Other significant actors are;
• Somalia’s neighboring states, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti; Arab states looking for political and economic influence
• the Islamist donors to and rebel movements affiliated with H.S.M.
• the Ogaden National Liberation Front (O.N.L.F.) that wages an armed war of liberation in Ethiopia’s Somali Regional State
• regional authorities in southern and central Somalia, some of them established (Galmudug, Himan and Heeb, Ahlu Sunna wal‐Jamaa), others contesting H.S.M.’s control and loosely linked to the T.F.G. and the S.S.C. liberation movement that calls for independence of territories disputed between Somaliland and Puntland.

The Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) controls a trained army numbering several thousand soldiers. Other various TFG-allied groups throughout Somalia are estimated to control militias ranging in strength from hundreds to thousands. The TFG and some groups possess limited inventories of older armored vehicles and other heavy weapons, and small arms are prevalent throughout Somalia.

On 8 September 2009, 500 naval recruits graduated to form Somalia’s first naval force in over 2 decades. The TFG said it would use the force to combat piracy off Somalia’s coastline.

Libya

On 5 May 2011, countries in the Libya Contact Group and allies - composed of foreign ministers from more than 20 countries including France, Britain, the US, Italy, and Qatar, as well as representatives of the Arab League and the African Union (AU) met in Rome, as forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi pounded a rebel town in the west.

The Contact Group said after the Rome meeting they had set aside a temporary special fund (US$250 million initially) to be channeled to the rebel administration in its eastern Libyan stronghold of Benghazi. The group said the money would be used for humanitarian and public policing purposes only, according to France24 TV.

Frozen Assets

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington would try to pass legislation to unblock about $30bn of Libyan state funds frozen in the US to help the rebel movement, while there was a cautious response from Britain, which said it had no plans to contribute to the fund set up for the rebels because it had already made a "very substantial" contribution to humanitarian assistance.

As the fighting has descended into a stalemate, the rebel Transitional National Council said it needs up to $3bn to keep going. But efforts to unblock Libyan state assets that are frozen in overseas accounts, or to allow the rebels to get past United Nations (UN) sanctions that prevent their selling oil on international markets, have been held up so far.

Rebel spokesman Mahmoud Shammam said the rebels had enough funds only to pay for their immediate needs in food, public salaries and medicine until the end of the month (May 2011).

But Libyan authorities argue, "any use of the frozen assets is like piracy on the high seas."

Libya Deputy Foreign Minister Khaled Kaim told media "they (the rebels) are not a legal entity. They are not a country. The country is not divided according to a referendum or to a United Nations resolution," adding, "This is illegal ... If we stay silent about it, I think we will be living in a jungle."

He said in a report cited by Reuters on 5 May 2011, that Libya had more than $140 billion invested abroad and that the Libyan central bank had transferred 700 million Libyan dinars to its Benghazi branch in February 2011 to pay for six months of salaries and other expenses.

The African Union Road Map

Meanwhile, Turkey followed in the AU’s footsteps in trying to secure a ceasefire in the North African state. While Gaddafi had agreed to a ceasefire on 26 April 2011, the Libyan Transitional Council insisted there could be no peace until he and his son leave power and all prisoners are released.

The AU has since its first deliberation on the issue on 10 March 2011, insisted that "only a political solution will fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people and promote lasting peace in that country"
In that regard, the AU through the PSC worked out a roadmap for resolving the Libyan crisis. The AU met with representatives of both parties. The Libyan Government reiterated its unconditional acceptance of the AU Roadmap, while the National Transitional Council pledged to study the document thoroughly.

The current situation is that both sides are expected to submit their comments and proposals on the various elements of the Roadmap shortly. Since the last consultation on 26 April 2011, the situation in Libya has continued to deteriorate, marked by continued fighting and other military operations, the deterioration of the humanitarian situation, which is tragically illustrated by the plight of the people living in the town of Misrata, and the absence of any dialogue between the parties to find a comprehensive solution to the various aspects of the crisis.

At the Contact Group meeting in Rome, the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU reiterated the need to support the quest for peace in Libya and to fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people.

According to the AU, the role of the international community is to help the Libyan people overcome this sensitive phase of its history, and its involvement must be laid on clear bases, namely:

(i) the need to duly take into account the legitimate aspirations of the Libyan people to democracy, political reform and good governance, and the fact that only Libyans should determine the future of their country;

(ii) respect for international legality, which requires, under the circumstances, that all act within the limits of the provisions of Resolutions 1970 and 1973 (2011). In this regard, our PSC expressed concerns that must be taken into account if we want to promote and consolidate an international consensus on the way forward and strengthen global governance based on effective multilateralism; and

(iii) the persevering and sustained search for a political solution to the present crisis, which demands that the international community fully mobilize itself to facilitate the speedy conclusion of a ceasefire, as required by the Security Council in its Resolution 1973 (2011), being clearly understood that the ceasefire is only one the elements, certainly an important one, of the overall solution that we must promote, and that it must be accompanied by the establishment of an international verification and monitoring mechanism which is effective and credible.

The Rebel Road Map

Libyan rebels unveiled their detailed "road map" to democracy at a meeting of the 22-nation Contact Group on Libya in Rome. The proposals begin with local elections even before the fall of the Gaddafi regime.

The road map also sets out the structure of an inclusive unity government if Gaddafi stands down. The government will include members of the current council, alongside three members of the Gaddafi regime.

There will also be two high-ranking military officers, two police or intelligence officials who have not been involved in the bloodshed, and a Supreme Court judge.

Under the plan, a National Congress of representatives of all towns and cities will be held to elect a committee to draft a new constitution. That will be submitted to a referendum. The road map foresees parliamentary elections four months later, with presidential elections two months after that.

Questions have been raised in Western capitals about the rebels' credentials after revelations that one commander is a former Guantanamo inmate. These contradictions are compounded by the fact that Gadaffi reportedly has lots of cash money on hand to continue to buy allegiances, particularly tribal allegiances and mercenary support that is sustaining his fight. Both NATO and the rebels might have underestimated how many billions of dollars Gadaffi had stashed away from which to sustain a long, drawn out military operation.

NATO’s reputation on line

As of 23 June 2011, NATO has flown over 12,000 missions over Libya including 4,000 strike sorties by attack helicopters, missile firing drones, and jet fighters - when its war began against Col. Muammar Gaddafi's military in March 2011.

The results have not marched the intensity of the air bombardments, except for a growing battlefield stalemate and troublesome divisions within the NATO alliance.

The punishing barrage has failed, so far, to dislodge Gaddafi from his base, and there is no sign that Gaddafi is about to surrender.

On 23 June 2011, deviating from the collective norm, Italy called for a suspension of the air campaign to permit the delivery of humanitarian aid to Libya's civilians who confront an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. This gesture by Italy has been interpreted to mean the NATO offensive has had the unintended consequence of exacerbating the very humanitarian crisis it was intended to relieve.

Gaddafi’s government has repeatedly accused NATO of targeting civilians in an attempt to rally support against international intervention into Libya's civil war. The alliance insists it tries to avoid killing civilians.

Ivory Coast

The International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has requested an investigation into crimes against humanity and war crimes committed after a disputed presidential election in Ivory Coast in November 2010. The ICC judges have yet to open the investigation.

If the panel of judges grants the request, it will be the 7th case opened by Luis Moreno-Ocampo on ‘war crimes or crimes against humanity’ – all of them in Africa.

Ivory Coast is not a party to the Rome Statute that set up the ICC, but the Ivorian government has accepted the Court’s jurisdiction to investigate and try crimes under international law committed in the country since 19 September 2002.

President Alassane Ouattara confirmed this commitment in a letter to the ICC in December 2010.

Wither South Africa? For how long can the centre hold before Tunisia Day?

2011-02-24T03:17:00.000-08:00

“I CAN predict when SA’s "Tunisia Day" will arrive. Tunisia Day is when the masses rise against the powers that be, as happened recently in Tunisia”, MOELETSI MBEKI wrote. The postulation published by POLITICS WEB on 10 January 2011 has a familiar ring to LESTER VENTER’s controversial work on political forecasting, ‘WHEN MANDELA GOES’ published in 1997.

Both Lester and Moeletsi point to a South Africa inevitably engulfed by social revolution and both put the blame squarely on the ANC government; particularly its policies on globalization and liberalization of the economy. According to these two authors, it is a zero sum game – one in which the ruling group is portrayed as incapable of shaping the future in a sustainable way.

The Gloom and Doom Scenario

Lester Venter wrote as follows:

‘South Africa has now experienced a political revolution, and is confronting the early stages of a social revolution. The first prepared the way for the second’.

He highlights the widening ‘chasm between the privileged and the desperate’, the two worlds that make up South Africa—the first world and the second. He then goes on to say:

“The change has still to come. And come it will. Moreover, change will not come primarily through the actions and policies of government. It will come from underlying forces to which governmental action will usually be a confused response”.

Vester posits several questions – among them;

• When the magic of Nelson Mandela is no longer here, will the dream live on or will it become a nightmare?
• What will life look like in a new society?
• What is the future for politics, the economy, jobs, crime, education, health services and the environment?

Moeletsi’s article is very much an echo of arguments made more than a decade ago by Lester.

For instance; in Lester, the climax arrives 20 years after his publication, when ’the sons and daughters of the next generation are not going to accept their fate of unfulfilled expectations’. At that point, change would have taken place – ‘from a race based oligarchy to a non-racial democracy...However, the process of change would have turned out to be greater than the change itself…far less auspicious. In Moeletsi, the time frames are similar. ‘The year will be 2020, give or take a couple of years’.

Moeletsi opines;

“The year 2020 is when China estimates that its current minerals-intensive industrialization phase will be concluded. For SA, this will mean the African National Congress (ANC) government will have to cut back on social grants, which it uses to placate the black poor and to get their votes”.

According to Lester;

“…the ANC’s condition is more precarious today than it has ever been before. The great unifier – opposition to apartheid – is gone. The second great unifier – Mandela – is going” pg 94.

Moeletsi builds on this scenario;

“…the ANC inherited a flawed, complex society it barely understood; its tinkering with it is turning it into an explosive cocktail. The ANC leaders are like a group of children playing with a hand grenade. One day one of them will figure out how to pull out the pin and everyone will be killed".

Lester and Moeletsi: Seemingly oblivious of government efforts and likely social impacts

The social revolution predicted by Lester and Moeletsi came a long time ago; that is if the series of service delivery protests around the country since the country's first democratic elections on 22 April 1994 are anything to go by. That because apartheid divided South Africa into separate and unequal spaces and that this design remains imprinted throughout the country, protests were thus expected.

In April 2010 during the debate on the budget vote of the local government ministry, deputy minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) Yunus Carrim said that the protests had "structural, systemic, political, economic, governance, psychological, emotional and other dimensions".

Carim added:

"Most of the protests are about service delivery issues. But they are not just about that. Many of the protests have been taking place in better performing wards and municipalities where there has, in fact, been significant service delivery. The protests are also about a range of other municipal issues, including maladministration, nepotism, fraud, corruption and the failure of councilors and administrators to listen to residents”.

The question that arises: ‘Unlike, in Tunisia, and most recently Egypt and Libya, what has kept the street protests in South Africa from boiling over’?

The answer may lie in the pre-emptive salient processes already underway in South Africa. Faced with protests, the country has not resorted to shutting the internet; nor the ordering snipers to fire ‘live bullets’ on protestors.

Aubrey Matshiqi is a senior research associate at the Centre for Policy Studies. He argues South Africa is facing a different challenge. He notes that an estimated that 60% of SA’s population is under 30 and concludes;

‘while this…comes with its own challenges when it comes to national planning, what it also means is that South Africa still has the opportunity to unlock her social and economic potential. If the country plans well and implements its plans successfully, the twenty-first century may become a South African and African century, as was predicted by former President Thabo Mbeki. If South Africa succeeds, the country might become the gateway to Africa, not by mere proclamation but through her contribution to the social, political and economic development of the continent’.

A range of salient efforts by government are noted in a number of areas, particularly in the area of increased participatory democracy and in governance issues. Reports of President Jacob Zuma and his ministers making un- announced visits to poor local communities are common and so has been the general transparency in governance. For instance, the Department of Co-operative Governance and Traditional Affairs launched on 12 August 2009 an “Operation clean audit 2014” campaign.

Efforts like these are partly responsible for South Africa’s move into the top spot out of 94 countries for its national budget process in terms of transparency and accountability, according to the International Open Budget 2011 report.

This was an important move up from second place in 2008.

The open budget survey uses internationally recognized criteria to give each country a transparency score on a 100-point scale called the open budget index.

SA is one of a few countries in the world that provide extensive information about the government’s budget, according to the International Open Budget report, released by the International Budget Partnership - an initiative designed to undertake budget analyses in order to improve governance and reduce poverty.

A people centered democracy?

The government’s priority since 1994 has been meeting the basic needs of the millions of South Africans living in poverty. This target has been a cornerstone of government’s redistribution and poverty-eradication effort. In line with the Millennium Development Goals, government’s target is to ensure that by 2014 all households have access to the minimum standard for each basic service.

A related 2014 goal is to halve unemployment and poverty. Through procurements of services and by using labor-intensive methods to maintain and build infrastructure, municipalities both broaden participation in the local economy and create work opportunities for the poor.

President Zuma already stated in his 2011 State of the Nation Address that government was considering alternative service delivery models and that positive political leadership and optimal communication, particularly at local government levels would be critical. Former President Thabo Mbeki also understood this point.

In spite of all these efforts by the current government administration, both Lester and Moeletsi are not dissuaded from their vision of a future SA characterized by gloomy and doom. While raising crucial socio economic indicators and government shortcomings, the two are seemingly blind to the salient features of enhanced good governance currently inherent in SA’s democracy experiment and how these features constantly structure political responses by the South African masses.

Indeed, the ANC led government has had its flaws that might come back to haunt future generations and development challenges are huge. However, in the same breath, the good that this government does now must be acknowledged and strengthened and these efforts are likely to diffuse potential revolts in the future.

Of-course, admittedly, social variables are not easy to fathom, and thus it is difficult to predict the future with precision. And yet it can be argued, the future is like clay. It can be molded. It does not have to end the way Lester and Moeletsi envisage it.

Obama: Will he survive the tantrum?

2010-12-10T08:10:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

Will US President Barack Obama survive the current mutiny by disgruntled House Democrats over his agreement with congressional Republicans, to temporarily prolong all the Bush-era tax cuts scheduled to expire by the end of 2010? Many House Democrats rejected the compromise and are particularly angry because, Obama, allegedly bypassed them and went straight to Republicans to hammer out the deal. The refrain is a potential risk for Obama, especially among major donors who now reportedly wonder whether they can support his re-election effort in 2012.

House Democrats voted 9 December 2010 against considering the tax package that Obama negotiated with Republicans, raising questions over the president's influence in his own party.

Democrats initially wanted tax cuts extended for the 98 percent of the population that earns up to $200,000 a year as individuals or $250,000 a year for families, while returning tax rates on higher income to levels from the 1990s. Republicans protested – arguing that allowing the tax rates on higher income to rise would stifle small business growth and harm the economy.

Obama is caught in-between following the compromise which, if passed into law, will see tax-breaks across the board. While he previously strongly opposed extending tax cuts for the richest Americans, Obama now says the compromise was ‘an essential step on the road to recovery’.

Regardless which way the pendulum swings - either option is costly. For example, the plan by Democrats would take more than $3 trillion out of tax receipts over the next 10 years, while the Republican demand to extend all the tax breaks would cost about $4 trillion. It is a juggle of note – one that caused congressional leaders from both parties to negotiate a compromise on 6 December 2010.

"For the next two years, every American family will keep their tax cuts, "Obama said in his statement to reporters. Further, “it will spur our private sector to create millions of new jobs, and add momentum our economy badly needs."

Plotted as an appeasement to Republican opposition, this tax deal includes an investment credit, which is expected to add $300 billion to the financial system. Analysts say Obama would have failed dismally to get such an amount as a pure stimulus package through the House of Representatives.

All in all, for the next two years, this Keynesian approach to economics will generate a $893 billion hit on the deficit over the next five years, according to figures released by the Congressional Budget Office.

The bulk of the deficit increase comes from loss of revenue -- $756 billion -- with the rest coming from additional direct outlays.

The 13-month extension of unemployment benefits adds no less than $57 billion to the deficit.

The highest price item is the extension of the Bush-era tax cuts, which will add more than $400 billion to the deficit, followed by the payroll tax holiday at about $225 billion.

All this amounts to a complex form of quantitative easing - a euphemism for printing cash, the way it was done in Zimbabwe and Uganda under late President Idi Amin. Such a scenario is expected do the trick in as far as keeping the economy afloat but can anyone rule out unintended consequences.

In Zimbabwe and Uganda, printing money that is not backed by real goods and services triggered inflation, pushed tax receipts and for a while helped the government’s debt receipts to stagnate; thus allowing it to settle the outstanding debt. In the US context, as was in Zimbabwe and Uganda, current buyers of debt will be stuck with negative real interest rates for decades – the value of the dollar would collapse significantly – threatening the current US dollar advantage as a global reserve currency.

Obama must decide what is in the interest of the broad citizens of America. He can only achieve such by transcending both his opponents, the Republican Party and his own Democratic Party constituency. This is not a career enhancing move but might prove character redeeming when the pages of history are ultimately written and when US politicians across the spectrum, will be interrogated by the simplest of citizens.

Like in the poem by Otto Rene Castillo, the Guatemalan revolutionary and guerrilla fighter, the simplest will ask, “What did you do when the poor suffered, when tenderness and life burned out of them?"

Obama will be able to answer and say; “Those tax cuts helped American families make ends meet. They helped them pay their kids’ college tuition, cover the cost of health care, and even offset the costs of energy-efficiency improvements to their homes. And they helped move the economy from free fall to growth...at least for the duration while I was still president”.

He might hasten to add, “Thereafter, the reality was difficult to fathom – not because the worst was unexpected, but because the US government was stuck with unbearable debt, fueled by among other factors, decline in tax revenue, subsequent huge cutbacks in public spending and a raise tax rates”.

So far, his administration has "stabilized" the economy and spurred private-sector hiring, but "people all across America aren't feeling that progress," Obama said in a news conference the day after Republicans seized majority control of the House and whittled down the Democratic majority in the Senate.

I do have a word of warning however to my American friends, who, like President Obama, appear to support Keynes’ ‘licking bucket theory’ hook-line and sinker. Today, the US government owes more money to more people than anyone in the world. Fast forward a few years and the stimulus fails to kick start the economy – it will be both the US Republicans and Democrats cringing with embarrassment as their own citizens thrash the streets, complete with vulgar t-shirts and tweets. And leaders of both parties will wonder just how they got into this predicament.

Wiki-leaks or Wiki-Pandora’s Box?

2010-12-02T06:11:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

From the United States, China, Yemen, Germany, South Africa and beyond, diplomats and government officials are red-faced following the 29 November 2010 massive leak of U.S. diplomatic cables by the internet site WikiLeaks. So irked and desperate, the US government reportedly resorted to freelance computer hackers to help chase WikiLeaks from an American commercial computer network. That worked at least for part of a day but the website returned within hours, this time publishing from a secret location in Sweden.

The debacle has degenerated into a digital war; mirrored by a security man-hunt for WikiLeaks founder, Julian Assange, which begun early December 2010.

"The man seems like a James Bond villain: highly intelligent, cunning, arrogant. And like every Bond nemesis, MI6 is hunting down Assange..." ", said David Sharp, writing for the online Daily Wealth publication (2 Dec 2010)

Interpol issued a “red notice”, while a senior U.S. defense official disclosed that U.S. Justice, State and Defense Department lawyers are discussing whether it might be possible to prosecute Assange and others under the Espionage Act and to establish whether he can be charged with other crimes such as theft of government property or receipt of stolen government property. U.S. Congressman Peter King of New York asked whether WikiLeaks can be designated a terrorist organization.

Assange portrays himself as a journalist but as the saga unfolds, many are asking if these leaks qualify as acts of espionage, terrorism, or journalism? Do media have an untrammeled right to release classified documents? Is it journalism to release confidential information obtained by others and transferred to WikiLeaks? Could it be that unregulated release of classified information will do more harm than good?

It is estimated that WikiLeaks has 1.2 million documents in their database. The site first appeared in public in January 2007 and since then it has acted as a ‘whistle blower’ on many occasions. Analysts say it could be that WikiLeaks has published the largest source of incriminating leaked documents from the government’s world over, or they are in the presence of something much more severe.

For instance, the Washington Post (30 November 2010) cited one senior US State Department official who claimed a significant number of activists and journalists, were likely be endangered if named. The official said a number of "very sensitive sources" could be arrested or targeted with violence if their names are published.

Ironically, not long ago, the US Government cautioned South Africa against legislating in favor of the proposed Protection of Information Bill 2010 which is already at the committee stage in parliament. The bill seeks among other things ‘to provide for the protection of certain information from destruction, loss or unlawful disclosure and to regulate the manner in which information may be protected. While the ANC says it is merely trying to protect the public good; US officials, civil society and media groups in South Africa say the Bill in its current form ‘rides roughshod over media freedom and the democratic values of transparency and accountability'. Under the proposed bill – outfits such as WikiLeaks who strive on classified information primarily from ‘whistle blowers’ would have to constantly fight for survival.

WikiLeaks’ defense that it is merely asserting its right to free speech – is a classic pandora’s box, whose popular acceptance masks a significant level of controversy and conceptual confusion. Ideally – while everyone should be encouraged to participate freely in the spread of ideas and in the creation of meanings - society must still find a way to determine when to draw the line between protected and non-protected expression. Right now, the picture is blurred in favor of the ‘powerful in our midst’ – be they governments or individuals with access to instruments of power, including ‘broadband internet’.

Whatever the case maybe - right now - evidently – internet democracy is transforming every aspect of life, offering an inspiring foretaste of the world we are becoming – in which information advantage is the ultimate power. At the very least, the internet in the hands of citizens, changes power relations. Right now, hackers have the edge over governments, institutions and individuals who want to keep certain information secret. And even as much of the ‘leaked information’ was known already, and the rest was not too surprising, sites such as WikiLeaks remain popular among digital citizens who gladly consume these daily bytes of raw-information emanating from ‘real’ significant events - via broadband internet. Fact is that the average Joe Public wants a free flow of insights into what is going on in the corridors of power.

South Africa’s first woman Defense Minister: Does the cap fit?

2010-11-17T04:34:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

For Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu, South Africa’s current Minister of Defence and Military Veterans, the centrality of national security is not a contested proposition. Rather, what is contested is the notion that national security can be achieved solely by achieving a strong military. Consistent with her thinking, which in part, is shared among economic and military scholars, territorial security that is performed by the military is no more important than other social challenges such as poverty and inequality.

Geoff Harris (2002), Professor of Economics in the School of Economics and Management at the University of Natal, Durban, is an exponent of a demilitarised society. First, he acknowledges the changed global military landscape, noting that almost all armed conflicts now occur within countries rather than between them, typically between government forces and groups wishing to secede or take over government. Second, he observes that; worldwide, invasions of one country by another are very rare events. None of the remaining war-torn countries have borders with South Africa”, Prof. Harris adds that more people die each year of AIDS-related illness in South Africa and a further 60,000 from road accidents and interpersonal violence, than in all wars in Africa put together. Moreover, contends Prof. Harris, ‘there is sufficient evidence indicating how excessive military expenditure hinders economic growth and thereby development. Further evidence has also shown that one out of every poor person in a developing country is 33 times more likely to die as a result of ‘social neglect’(preventable disease and malnutrition) than as a result of an inter-country war’.

Need for a 'smart military paradigm'

The challenge raised by Harris, however, could be reframed. Does South Africa require a demilitarized army or a 'smarter and leaner army that is able to respond to security threats efficiently and yet remain responsive to social challenges? Arguably, there exists a number of alternative ways of achieving security; ways that are less costly and more effective than a conventional military whose operations are limited to military engagement only.

If current developments within the South African Defense Force are anything to go by, Dr. Sisulu appears up her alley. Within a year of her assuming leadership of the defense department, Sisulu has made visible interventions with respect to budget expenditures; including social interventions when it has been deemed material for army personnel to get involved. For instance, at the height of a nationwide strike by more than one million public workers in August 2010, the defense ministry promptly deployed soldiers to 37 hospitals to help keep basic health services running. Later, the ministry said military teams were called in to aid doctors and replace striking support staff in cleaning bed linen and providing meals.

Add to existing army operations which include cross-border security, peacekeeping initiatives in the continent and more, Sisulu appears fully aware of the cost implications. Her attention to military expenditure and due diligence is in no doubt, clearly signified by her department's placing on review several contracts for military hardware and canceling others outright.

There is no doubt that a strong military builds national pride, creates jobs, etc. The same could be said in leiu of South Africa's infamous “arms deal” in which over R50 billion was spent. Minister of Trade and Industry Rob Davies told parliament in September 2010 that the Strategic Defense Package, has created 73 000 jobs and has exceeded government’s expectations. Davies told the National Assembly the latest assessment, undertaken last year, of the creation of jobs by national industrial participation offsets showed they had created 85 000 direct and indirect jobs, with 73 000 from the arms deal.

However, perhaps not to be ignored is the question asked by Prof. Harris earlier;‘fine, but at what cost?’ Harris calculated that from a job creation perspective, 'the spending of R52.7 billion to create 65,000 jobs (originally projected figures) means that each job costs more than R800,000, which could employ a dozen teachers or nurses'. According to the learned Prof. Harris, 'this picture highlights the fact that military expenditure is invariably an extremely expensive way of creating jobs'.

What Prof. Harris does not allude to in his argument is that because South Africa is not at war; that fact alone, does not mean military preperedness must be treated as a secondary function of government. The opposite is true, ie. to the extent that the fiscus can handle, the South African military should seek to transform itself into a 'smarter', 'leaner' and 'more efficient' force; while, as Sisulu has repeatedly noted, 'responsive to societal goals and indeed the professional needs of every individual soldier'.

Ordinarily; evolving a 'smart' military must be accompanied, among other interventions, by a corresponding human development training programme. Signs of progress in that regard are visible. Case in point is the recent successful completion by Captain Catherine Labuschagne as one of four South African Air Force (SAAF) who took part in the first Operational Conversion Course (OCC) instructed by local SAAF pilots.

Captain Labuschagne made her solo Gripen flight at the South African airbase Makhado in the Limpopo province of South Africa. This will give her a place in the record books as the first female Gripen pilot.

The four newly qualified Gripen fighter pilots will strengthen SAAF and the 2 squadron which it is hoped will reach operational status sometime in 2011.

Recently the SAAF Gripen force, although still in a project phase and not formally an operational system, conducted a large part of the air policing during the FIFA World Cup.

The South African government ordered 26 Gripen C/D fighter aircraft in 1999 as part of a “strategic defense package” that acknowledges that future defense capabilities will increasingly rely in what is now commonly called network-centric operations. This is a new military doctrine or theory of war that prioritizes information advantage, enabled in part by information technology, into a competitive advantage through the robust networking of well informed geographically dispersed forces.

This technology does not come cheap but here it should be noted South Africa has consistently witnessed sharp declines with respect to military expenditure since 1994, this in spite of the media hoo haa.

Here is a simple graph showing the state of militarisation in South Africa. It shows military spending as a percentage of GDP (from the World Bank – just Google military GDP South Africa and you will get the data). The post-1994 decline is striking. The World Bank figures only go up to 2008. (Click on the graph for a larger image.)

Here is another graph that puts South Africa in some regional perspective. Recent increases have put South Africa well ahead of Malawi, Mozambique and Mauritius but well below the rest of the countries within the Southern Development Community (SADC).

The above scenario shows a low military expenditure versus GDP by comparison to other countries within the SADC region. In fact, it highlights a concerted effort by the post apartheid government in South Africa, to structure defense spending in manner that does not "bankrupt the state coffers" by exceeding the government's capacity to attend to other social concerns. The approach, which in South Africa has included 'strategic high-end defense purchaces', recognizes several variables, including the nature of armed conflict and the changed meaning of security in the past three decades.

Sisulu admits there are challenges,including among others, military spending oversight; hence her department has instituted several options to compliment existing measures aimed at ensuring that the final overall national budget is a monetary expression of the priorities of the nation, its choice between "weapons of war and the broader socio-economic goals”.

As 2010 came to a close, cabinet had approved two new but long-anticipated defence-related Bills for introduction to Parliament. They are the Military Veterans Bill and the South African Military Ombudsman Bill. The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the Military Veterans Bill will seek to establish, develop, promote and implement national policy and standards regarding military veterans and their dependants “to enhance the well-being and quality of life through progressive realisation of their socio-economic rights.”

A further amendment to the Defence Act is also on the cards, a separate statement from the Ministry of Defence and Military Veterans said. “In the next financial year [starting 01 April 2011] our priority would be to finalise the legislative process to remove unions in the SANDF,”

Following a rebellion by the South African armed forces, which happened on 15 August 2009, police responded with rubber bullets and teargas to disperse the protest described by the defense minister as a threat to national security. Four soldiers were taken to hospital and 18 were injured during the mutinous unrest which took place at the government Union Buildings in Pretoria. It can be argued this was the primary reason that led to a re-think on whether unions should be tolerated in the army.

“We are more than convinced that all the unions in the SANDF have no respect for national security their interest is collecting monthly affiliation funds from the poor soldiers” the ministry said.

The Military Ombudsman will be expected to attend to complaints arising from members of the Defence Force as well as members of the public “and to ensure speedy resolution of complaints within and against the Defence Force,” the statement added.

Currently complaints arising from the Defence Force are dealt with in terms of the Individual Grievance Regulation and by a military investigator embedded in the office of the Public Protector and through the army unions.

In response to this short-come, Sisulu appointed an interim defense commission on 9 September 2009, to advise on establishing a permanent National Defense Force Service Commission and a special dispensation for the conditions of service of members of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF), in matters both in the short-term and the long-term.

The commission's final report was submitted to the minister in November 2010 and is expected to undergo all the necessary deliberation and ratification processes.

The interim commission is chaired by Supreme Court of Appeal Judge Lebotsang Ronnie Bosielo and includes United Democratic Movement leader and retired general Bantu Holomisa, and Pieter Groenewald of the Freedom Front Plus, a veteran member of the Assembly's defence committee.

“By appointing members from such diverse backgrounds, some from outside the orbit of the military,allowed us for the first time, in this dispensation to have a bird's eye view of the SANDF since 1994,” Sisulu explains. It is initiatives such as alluded to above that speak to the inclusive, broad character and content of South Africa's first female Defense Minister Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu.

Rich science Poor Democracy? South Africa / Australia bidding for the Square Kilometre Array

2010-08-16T06:35:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

"Man must rise above the Earth - to the top of the atmosphere and beyond - for only then will he fully understand the world in which he lives."
Socrates

South Africa and Australia are the two countries that are finalists in a bid to host the world’s largest telescope called the Square Kilometre Array (SKA). The joint project by 19 countries is perhaps the single most significant development since the first man – Neil Armstrong - stepped out of the famous Apollo 11 space craft and landed on the moon in 1969.

The SKA will not necessarily bring light to the masses but while they toil in darkness – metaphorically speaking – the feudal aristocracy of global science plans to spend $2.5 billion on a radio telescope. Its proponents argue it may reveal if our days in this planet earth are numbered. It will explore the unknown – provide alternative views of the universe than those seen with the current telescopes. It will search for Earth-like planets and potential life elsewhere in the universe - test Albert Einstein’s theories of relativity - probe the so-called ‘dark ages’ – before stars and galaxies were formed about 13.7 billion years ago in an event called 'Big Bang'.

According to this theory – since the 'Big Bang' the universe has been expanding consistently. Scary as it might sound - scientists fear the possible reversal of this process. They do not know whether the density of matter in the universe is great enough to slow the expansion eventually – causing the universe to stop and ultimately collapsing back upon on itself. If that does happen – scientist have agreed to call that event when the universe suddenly ends – the 'Big Crunch'.

The 'Big Crunch' theory is not without is critics. You may have head about the groundbreaking lecture by Sir Roger Penrose called "What Happened Before the 'Big Bang'?" in which he concluded that not only is the universe expanding - it is accelerating - not slowing down - as was previously thought.

Sir Roger argues - "the 'big crunch' theory - that the universe would eventually shrink and collapse - is invalid".

This conclusion culminated in Sir Roger's new synthesis which he described as 'crazy ideas' - but as he points out, "the fact that (these ideas are) crazy doesn't mean you can't take them seriously!"

In many ways - the SKA is a frightening and expensive expedition for mankind - or at least thought-provoking. And whatever the outcome – the future of science will be vastly different from the past. It is scheduled for completion in 2023 in what developers say will be an extremely sensitive and versatile telescope - touted 50 times more efficient – powered by thousands of receptors - all linked together via a data communications network to a very large and powerful data processing facility on the core SKA site that is yet to be determined.

Who will host the SKA?

The process to determine the host country for the SKA is still ongoing. A decision is expected in 2012.

The SKA South Africa website specifies the entire Northern Cape Province, with the exception of the Sol Plaatje Municipality (Kimberley) as an astronomy advantage area. Within that an area of 12.5 million hectares is the main protected area - or radio astronomy reserve - for the SKA. This area is also referred to as the Karoo Central Astronomy Advantage Area. The rest of the advantage area includes areas where the last remaining true San (Bushman) people still live. It is hard to imagine theses locals are without some conceptions or ideas about the meaning of existence and its logic.

The Northern Cape - especially along the Orange and Vaal rivers - is rich in San rock engravings. The province is also rich in fossils - lies to the south of its most important asset - the mighty Orange River - which feeds the agriculture and alluvial diamonds industries.

The Australians have something similar in Western Australia; the Murchison region. Official figures say the area has an estimated population of 160 people. However - the native title representative body for the Traditional Owners of the Murchison - the Yamatji Land and Sea Council refutes the population census - claims to represent 24 different – mostly displaced Aboriginal groups - all with their own culture - language - and traditions.

Yamatji Marlpa'Yamatji' means Aboriginal 'man' in the Murchison.

Modern anthropology accepts that historically the Murchison was inhabited by the native aboriginal people. Yamatji is a direct response or challenge to those in authority and leadership who will never apologise to the thousands of Indigenous people who were taken from their families - their communities - their lands - their cultural ties ruptured - sometimes irreparably - but thankfully not always.

Both South Africa and the Australia bids are hugely supported by an elite consensus backed by a legislation; and both countries look to fund the SKA primarily from the public purse. Skills development - capabilities and expertise of those involved in astronomy and related scientific work has been the key focus so far. But equally - the role of satisfying human curiosity and knowledge creation must transcend formal education - allow interface with non-scientists. It’s a call for robust community outreach programmes to be integrated in the overall development of the SKA so as to ensure broad resident populations are not excluded.

One accepts that the frontiers of science have moved far away from the ordinary people but failure to factor broad participation in the process of knowledge creation will conspire to condemn others – particularly the so called pre literate societies - into extinction.

The score-card is not complete if it does not include the following questions:

1. Does the host have the pre-requisite broad political consensus that recognizes pure research in basic sciences as a common good that must attract public funding?

2. How will the SKA impact on local populations? What is expected of locals?

3. Does the host country provide sufficient institutional and legal mechanisms that ensure science education does not become the preserve of a few science elites but a right for all citizens who wish to embrace it – including the poor and marginalized in our midsts?

The SKA must face the abovementioned institutional challenges head on. If ignored – consider the future of science itself in doubt.

Rooting for South Africa

The history of scientific research is fraught with assumptions about generally everything – most of which unravel as soon as it is learnt. Yet this is not enough to rain the parade. African intellectuals and the continent's political leadership say owing to recent history of exploitation and colonization – Africa is running a deficit in science and innovation and that locating the SKA project in Africa is an opportunity for the continent to catch up – and to simultaneously drive the continent towards knowledge-based economies.

After all - in Africa – as well as among the so called pre literacy societies lies unexplored ‘indigenous knowledge systems’ that might help illuminate much of the discoveries already achieved through modern science

The elite consesus is loud and clear. At the 15th ordinary session of the assembly of heads of state and government held in July 2010 in Uganda – the African Union endorsed South Africa’s bid to host the SKA.

South Africa’s commitment is epitomized by the Astronomy Geographic Advantage Bill which was signed into law by former President Thabo Mbeki in 2007. The bill allocates the power to declare astronomy advantage areas to the Minister of Science and Technology which funds the SKA Project via the National Research Foundation.

“…and even if the SKA fails to resolve all its penciled assumptions -South Africa is already building the Karoo Array Telescope (MeerKAT) which is a forerunner instrument for the SKA - but will in its own right be amongst the largest and most powerful telescopes in the world,” says Dr Gatsha Mazithulela – Vice President - Research Infrastructure & National Research Facilities at the National Research Foundation.

MeerKAT is located nearby to the site proposed for the SKA near the small town of Carnarvon in the Northern Cape Province.

“Using Africa’s geographic advantage related to the southern hemisphere skies - the southern oceans – paleontological – floral - and other heritages - South Africa has taken a committed step in positioning the country as a destination for specialised activities in scientific research and development to an extent that the bid for the SKA is almost within grasp,” adds Mazithulela.

The five key science drivers for the SKA are outlined in the International SKA website as follows:

Cradle of life – this project will explore whether there are Earth-like planets around other stars, and whether they host intelligent life, thus helping to answer the eternal question of whether there is life elsewhere in the universe;

Probing the Dark Ages – this will explore the first black holes and stars, and help to answer the question of what happened after the big bang and before the first stars and galaxies formed;

The origin and evolution of cosmic magnetism - this will explore how magnetism affects the formation of stars and galaxies, and what maintains the present-day magnetic fields of galaxies, stars and planets;

Strong field tests of gravity using pulsars and black holes - this will help to test whether Einstein's theory of general relativity is the last word on gravity, for example, whether its predictions for black holes are correct, and whether the cosmos is filled with a gravitational wave background;

Galaxy evolution, cosmology, and dark matter - this will explore how galaxies are born and how they evolve, and seek a better understanding of the "dark energy" that fills the majority of the universe.

Several European countries,the USA,Canada,China,India including bid finalists Australia and South Africa are some of the participants in the SKA. It is a brave new world and countries are investing scarce public financial resources to figure Edwin Hubble’s theory of the expanding universe – while facing starry eyed at collapsing provision of primary health care - education – housing and jobs - to name but a few. Yet we all must concede; scientific research is essential for our economic future and human intelligence is the most valuable stuff in the universe.

Ke Nako – it is time for Africa.

See list of SKA partners and additional information here

See excerpt from a talk given by Roger Penrose on his theory of 'crazy science' here

Why many fear South Africa might explode after the 2010 FIFA World Cup

2010-07-02T07:01:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I'll go out on a limb and echo those that say it's not all rosy in the Rainbow Nation. I will dare repeat the questions; will the majority reap the great FIFA World Cup promise after the final whistle? What will the games do for South Africa in general and the poor specifically? Will it help resolve the many socio-economic problems currently faced by the countless unemployed?

Theatre director, Mpumelelo Grootboom epitomizes views held by many: 'It's fantasy to believe the World Cup will help reduce poverty in South Africa'

“Who is profiting? Is it my colleagues in the theatre who have been struggling, economically for so many years? No….it is people with connections, who do not require the World Cup's miraculous help in the first place”.

Mpumelelo’s views are shared by millions of impoverished, forgotten immigrants, and ordinary South Africans, who simply can't afford the tickets for the games; and life in the slums of South Africa's biggest city, Johannesburg, is a daily nightmare.

The opposite is true for international visitors to South Africa. Most have hailed Africa's first World Cup as one of the most vibrant. They say contrary to what most media reported about this country, it's very beautiful, culturally vibrant and most have not had any incidence of crime or hostility.

Benefits

South Africa has spent more than R33-billion (a significant portion of which was spent on constructing new stadiums and renovating old ones), albeit, while millions of people remain in poverty. In addition, the country witnessed unprecedented infrastructure developments, including upgrades of road networks, airports and border management services.

The Gautrain, Africa's first high-speed rail line, opened its doors for the first time on 7 June 2010, attracting between 9000 and 10000 travelers on its first day, according to the Bombela Concession Company.

Construction on the 160-kilometre-an-hour maximum rail line started in 2006 and when finished in mid-2011, the 80-kilometre regional express train will link the capital of Pretoria with national economic hub Johannesburg.

A survey driven by Posterscope South Africa, the Out of home Consumer Survey (OCS) asked the question of, ’who will use the Gautrain’ beyond the “World Cup’ honeymoon period?

The OCS survey noted the current South African market consists of two main groups, those used to the much cheaper public transport system (taxis and trains) and those currently using their own transport/cars. The findings from private car users were as follows; 48% said that they were likely to use, whilst 81% mini-bus taxi users’ said that they are likely to use.

The survey concluded that owing to South Africa’s outdated and sometimes unreliable transport system, ‘convenience and innovation have been the biggest selling points of this new public transport venture’. The fare ranges from R16 (US$2.20); however trips from the airport to Sandton are expected to be about R100 (US$13) to R120 (US$16), one way.

1Goal project and Football for Hope project

Meanwhile, through FIFA's 1Goal project and Football for Hope project, the world football governing body says it aims to provide education for the many disadvantaged children on the continent. The project has committed more than $70 million (about R560 million) towards the development of football in Africa since South Africa was announced as a winning bidder in 2004.

The money is being used to develop state-of-the-art football projects and infrastructure across all 53 member states. Football turfs were being built across the continent as part of the "win in Africa with Africa" initiative.

"The initiative has helped all the 53 member associations in the continent develop state of the art football projects and improve domestic leagues," Thierry Regenass, FIFA's Development officer told Bua News – an SA government funded online news magazine.

But many say ‘the devil is in the detail’

Rebekah Kendal on 29 June 2010 wrote:

“Despite the pro-Africa enthusing and the general back-patting, FIFA is no friend of Africa….It strikes me as a little peculiar that a company which had its not-for-profit tax-free status re-affirmed by the Swiss parliament in March can walk away with profits of almost $1-billion. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that our World Cup (yip, the one hosted in Africa) is expected to contribute an additional 0.5 percent to the Swiss GDP”.

Kendal cites an article published by the City Press on which the South African Revenue Services (SARS) spokesperson Adrian Lackay sums up the financial situation: "From the perspective of what we spent as a country and from what the country stands to make in terms of revenue and profits it is almost negligible”.

"Our approach to the World Cup has been that it was never going to be a revenue-raising exercise. Certainly it would be wrong to view the World Cup as a significant contributor in itself. The concessions we had to give to FIFA are simply too demanding and overwhelming for us to have material monetary benefits."

Kendal concludes that it is wrong to take more than you should simply because you can. “For FIFA to do what the rest of the world has been doing to Africa for centuries under the guise of condescension is morally reprehensible…particularly for an organisation which claims to not be about profit”.

JOBS

For the well stocked armies of the unemployed…at this point it's all about three things…JOBS...JOBS... and — you guessed it — JOBS. Here again, many pray the dam will hold — especially in the wake of the lousy jobs numbers released 29 June 2010 by Statistics South Africa’s (Stats SA’s).

That more than raises the question whether or not this idea of a “World Cup” inspired economic boom is sustainable; considering many construction projects having been completed for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, “the construction sector shed 50 000 employees, representing a 10,9% decline, year-on-year ?

According to Stats SA’s latest Quarterly Employment Statistics (QES); “the number of people employed in the formal sector declined by 1%, or 79 000 employees, during the first quarter of 2010, compared with the fourth quarter of 2009”. But, large discrepancies are noted in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) which showed that 140 000 jobs had been shed, nearly double the QES figure.

Whereas the QES gives a better picture with regards to trends within formal businesses and industry - the QLFS covers both formal and informal sector jobs, including agriculture and households.

The outcome is visible in the 2010 National Budget. Government forecast is for debt to rise to 44 percent of the GDP in 2015/2016, just to tread water, after which it will begin to decline gradually. And after 16 years of ‘huge government spending’ and SA consumers running up the credit cards — like a horse that's been ridden too far, too fast, for far too long, skeptics say the country has basically reached a point of fatigue which makes it nearly impossible to grow the economy out of such a mess.

With such a picture - one might as well infer that the SA government tried to float a lead balloon by hosting the World Cup. Why? Because, while the World Cup could have triggered consumer spending and added a confidence boost in the economy; ultimately, when the population does not have jobs (there's that word again), they don't spend enough money to keep the economy all afloat. Of-course, tourist will spend during the games but will not return to SA ‘when the pooh hits the fan’. Social protests by the ‘poor’ might render the streets ungovernable if their plight is not addressed.

The fears are not without context as Mpumelelo puts it: “In the last six years the racial tensions in South Africa have boiled over. The assassinations of right-wing extremists and apartheid advocate Eugene Terre Blanche and the populist speeches of Julius Malema, the president of the youth organisation of the ANC, have brought the situation to a head. Many felt the explosion was imminent”.

Julius Malema: Is the Clock Almost Striking Midnight?

2010-04-15T06:21:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

Harare - 2010 Easter weekend. Enter Julius Malema – the ANC youth league leader who thought endorsing President Robert Mugabe’s ZANU PF party and dismissing the opposition MDC, was a solid plan. ZANU PF is the party after all – hailed by some for pioneering Zimbabwe’s Independence from Britain, never mind the European Union’s 200 member ‘list of shame’ that accuses the party’s leadership of crimes against humanity.

Allegations are collaborated by a string of human rights groups and scores of Zimbabwean citizens who say ZANU PF is responsible for the slaughter of thousands of political opponents – some allegedly buried in shallow graves.

Malema tried some damage control, saying he did not support ZANU PF’s use of violence, particularly during elections. But his reproach which was presumably meant to sound tough, came off like a paternal scolding: the typical "Zimbabwe will never be a colony again” defense. That is, if the ‘former freedom fighters’ are on the right side of the ‘diamond fields’, they can defend their gains by any means necessary, including impunity.

it was like a circus had come to Harare – except many could not wait for the circus to leave.

Malema may possibly face an internal disciplinary hearing within the ANC for insubordination. President Jacob Zuma is the principal mediator in delicate negotiations aimed at bringing about the full implementation of a power-sharing agreement by both ZANUPF and the opposition MDC parties and Malema's intrusion is seen as undermining those efforts.

In a public rebuke on 10 April 2010 - exacerbated by the bitter controversy over the ‘kill the boer’ lyrics of a song which Malema has refused to stop singing - even after being requested to do so by his own principals - Zuma described Malema's behaviour as "unacceptable", "totally out of order", "against ANC culture" and warranting "consequences". Zuma added: "We cannot and we will not side with any one of the (Zimbabwean) parties to the exclusion of others."

But that was only the beginning. The same day Malema got his telling from Zuma, a section of the Youth League accused Malema of "stealing" the conference in his home province of Limpopo, which ended with a leadership sympathetic to him being elected. At the height of tensions between pro- and anti-Malema camps, police helicopters were deployed to the conference venue, while police forced delegates from the hall to disperse using water cannons.

Regardless of one’s politics, views on race; either way, it is no secret that in spite of all the gains with regards race relations since the demise of apartheid, South Africa is once again at the threshold of a potential race war and that the nation building challenges transcend a one Julius Malema.

So it was when extremist right wing leader Eugene Terre’Blanche was brutally murdered, supporters of The Afrikaner Resistance Movement (AWB) theorized that the attack constituted a declaration of war against Afrikaners and further alleged that since 1994 close to four thousand ‘white’ farmers had been murdered in farm attacks, with many being brutally tortured and/or raped. According their account, the murder of Terre’Blanche – their paramilitary leader was part of an ongoing preparation for an all out genocide against the Afrikaner community.

The AWB position is hotly contested. The Committee of Inquiry into Farm Attacks released by the South African Police Services in 2003 said out 3000 attacks from 1998 to 2001, motives were found in 2644 attacks; and that only 2% were attributed to race or political motive. The bulk of the incidents were linked to robbery, labour related issues and intimidation.

Add to the complex picture; trade unions and the likes of Malema accuse government of ignoring the ill-treatment of ‘black’ farm workers by the largely Afrikaner farming community. There are currently an estimated 40 000 commercial farmers in the country and according to the SA Institute for Race Relations, about 250 000 South Africans out of a total current population of approximately 47 million have been murdered in the farms.

Of-course, the AWB’s selective decoding of the problem, Malema’s boer bashing and his responses to the murder of Terre’Blanche, the ‘ultimate boer’, all have but serve to distract focus on the real issues facing both farmers and farm workers, and instead catapults the AWB to the position of champion defenders of the white tribe of Africa.

The AWB stands for a separate homeland for the Afrikaner people. Malema is obviously threatened by such notions. He perceives the idea of a separate homeland for the Afrikaners in the same light as the system of apartheid, under which expensive cars, designer cloths and golfing would be the preserve for white people while fake designer labels and caddies are reserved for non-white people. And what of the side pistols, knives and paramilitary uniforms of the AWB? This kind of posturing has not served to allay fears of a white right-wing militant backlash. More over, the 1994 memories of AWB members detonating bombs in urban locations, including one at Johannesburg's main airport – remain fresh in the minds of many.

Put bluntly, in spite of some measurable gains with respect to achieving racial harmony, the country remains a racially segregated society. However, truth be told, while it could be argued that Malema’s pin-pointing of the ‘AWB’s racial bigotry’ has a basis; it is equally ingenious for any leader worth his or her salt to assume that inflammatory remarks can contribute towards nation building. For goodness sake, someone must assume the moral high ground and accept the merit in what the late Ghandi used to say; “an eye for an eye leaves everyone blind”.

My shared view – not original – is that just as it was in the heydays of apartheid, racial elites (both black and white), today use the race card to drive a wedge between people who would otherwise come together to challenge the elite norms, in particular, the gross primitive capital accumulation that has tended to characterize political and business leadership in South Africa.

It is not as if racists of all shades have no other choice: They can push for a non-racial society —that is, can refuse to endorse either white or black supremacy or centrality — or better still, push for democratic citizenship. In other words - one can rest comfortably in the privileges that come with being of a particular race (weather it is Black Economic Empowerment or traditional white centrality) or, one can struggle for democratic citizenship regardless of racial profile. Clearly, one can not do both.

Need l add that ‘human beings have the same origin and that dividing people by "race" is merely a reaction of fear. Unfortunately, cowardice is not an enviable quality either. It simply does not have a good track record of survival’. That is why Malema‘s fear of ‘white centrality’ is not inspiring – in fact, un-constructive, discordant and counter-productive. It is this kind of political behavior that has the ‘bad boy’ leader wearing out his welcome with sections of the ANC.

In Malema, the ANC faces a social engineering test. The big question though is: Owing to the racial and political polarization Malema seems to foster, will the ANC and its tripartite leadership seek his negation or outright demotion? There are suggestions that his obsession with ‘race politics’, questionable class consciousness and lack of collective discipline, renders him worthless in the context of a holistic struggle for social transformation.

Whatever fate the ANC decides for Malema, it might be worth recalling Frantz Fanon’s argument in "The Wretched of the Earth" (1961); that revolutionary movements can not afford to exclude the most spontaneous and radical amongst their ranks since these elements are equally susceptible to being co-opted by counterrevolutionary forces. Therefore, Fanon claimed, education and not alienation of these elements should be central to revolutionary strategy. Of-course, the ANC might add that learning is a voluntary attribute and that the struggle for social transformation includes acknowledging when individual actors outlive their usefulness with respect to particular tasks.

Zimbabwe: Economy no longer on free fall?

2009-10-04T02:28:00.000-07:00

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says Zimbabwe is turning around; but how many see the Great Pumpkin?

According to the World Economic Outlook – a report released by the IMF on 30 September 2009 - growth in the country’s gross domestic product would accelerate to 6 percent in 2010 - while consumer inflation would average 9 percent in 2009 and rise to an average of 12 percent in 2010. The southern African nation's current account deficit stands at 21.4 percent of GDP in 2009 - and will narrow to 19.9 percent in 2010. Loaded for bear - the IMF projects Zimbabwe's economy is likely to grow by 3.7 percent in 2009 - the first expansion since 1997.

Good news - but there is one little problem with hanging all hats on econometric presumptions. Often they do not account for the cold - hard reality that the country's crisis is multi-layered and thus transcends economics. Further - it does not require rocket science to appreciate that poor governance - lack of democratic citizenship and failure of the rule of law do not exactly make the best foundation for a bull market — no matter how much time is spent rubbing the lucky rabbit’s foot.

And without turning molehills into mountains or vice-versa – some facts economists and politicians would rather push under the carpet. These include the "shadow inventory" of Zimbabwe's total debt that includes domestic and external arrears totaling US$5 -7 billion - of which US$5 -2 billion is external and US$413 million in domestic liabilities. Unemployment is soaring - hovering around 80-85 percent at the heels of industries that are operating at only 20 and 30 percent capacity. I have not mentioned the collapse of essential infrastructure (roads - dams etc.) - disruption in agricultural production and the global HIV/AIDS crisis. These factors are not good for any market. So when you add it all up - the picture you get is a lot less rosy than the one painted in the latest IMF report.

Indeed - the departure of the valueless Zimbabwean dollar from circulation early 2009 was a gulp of air. According to John Legat (Chief Executive at Imara Asset Management in Zimbabwe) - “Zimbabwe's bank deposits rose from nothing to US$500 million (R3.7 billion) in May 2009 - reaching US$1bn in August 2009 -" He adds that “the rate of inflows has encouraged banks to begin lending again - with loan/deposit ratios approaching 50% “

Zimbabwe currently needs up to US$10 billion for economic recovery. It is officially estimated the country needs US$45 billion for the next 10 years to recover to 1997 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels. But in the absence of further political and economic reform – even the much touted cash reprieve from Western nations becomes a big problem if it is granted before the establishment of democratic institutions.

No doubt – however - one of these days the people of Zimbabwe will get it right - except today is just not that day — not by a long shot.

Who let the ‘dogs of war' out?

2009-09-08T13:21:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

A rebellion by the South African armed forces – others say attempted sedition - happened on 15 August 2009 - coincidentally on the 15th birthday of the South African National Defense Union (SANDU) – the outfit that organized the protest. Police responded with rubber bullets and teargas to disperse the protest described by the defense minister as a threat to national security. Four soldiers were taken to hospital and 18 were injured.

There was a build-up to the mutinous unrest that took place at the government Union Buildings in Pretoria. Reportedly - over 4000 grievances remain up in the air – unresolved - and arguably - political leadership remains numb to the needs of soldiers. And in a situation where the grievance procedures do not function properly; militant action often becomes an option and this is where things have gone terribly wrong.

Firstly - there is reason to suspect that pressure emanating from the current global economic recession means greater levels of disgruntlement within the swelling ranks of the poor who compete for increasingly scarce resources. Secondly - the spread of geographical locations suggests that a growing number of communities or organized groups see protests as an acceptable outlet for their frustration.

But unlike other employees demanding better wages or communities protesting lack of service delivery - we now have unhappy armed soldiers expressing their anger at the State in public.

With good reason - defense and military veterans’ minister Dr. Lindiwe Nonceba Sisulu refused to tolerate the kind of anarchy. 1420 soldiers - medics and airmen were subsequently issued with dismissal letters — 1333 from the SA Army - 80 from SA Military Health Service and seven from the SA Air Force.

“We have decided following legal processes available to the defense force and within the defense force to proceed with the ultimate sanction that will allow the soldiers to separate, which means they will be dismissed,” media reports quoted Sisulu as saying.

At the time of the protest - about 5000 soldiers and police from neighboring countries were in SA for a final drill in preparation for a SADC regional brigade meant for peace-keeping. Known as Exercise Golfinho, it would be SA’s biggest joint military drill since 1994. The exercise was in line with the African Union’s timeline for a continental stand-by force.

Now – just imagine the SADC brigade calling the South African Armed forces on the phone and being told by a recorded voice message - “We are sorry – the unit you require is attending the compulsory march at the Union Buildings - instigated by SADFU, SASFU, COSATU and others. Please leave a message stating the specific crisis and a number where you can be reached. As soon as they return from their up and down 'toyi toyi' drill - we will return your call.

Please speak after the tone - or if you require more options - please choose from the following options:

If your crisis is small and is located near the sea - press 1 for the Commissioner of the Police who resides in Kwa Zulu Natal and not Johannesburg - the crime capital.

If your concern is distant - with temperate climate and good hotels - and can be solved by one or two low-risk high-altitude bombing runs - press 2 for the Minister of Defense’s spokesperson. Please note that special consideration will be given to member countries requiring net-centric - satellite or stealth technology and can provide additional research and development funding.

If your inquiry concerns a situation which can be resolved by a bit of decoration - flags and a really good marching band - please write - well in advance - to the Umkhonto we Sizwe and Azanian People’s Liberation Army military veterans’ associations (MKMVA and APLAMVA). Please note that this service is extremely limited and will be provided on a first-come - first-serve basis.

If your inquiry is not urgent - press 3 for the Rapid Deployment Force. We expect it will ready by 2020.

If you are in really hot trouble - please press 4 - and your call will be answered by the Chief Operations Officer in the President’s office. Please note that a mandatory credit check will be done for countries like Zimbabwe to ensure you can afford the inherent additional costs that may arise. Also - be aware that the SA government may bill your account at any time and is not required to tell you why - as such information is classified.

If you are interested in joining the South African Army - and you wish to be shouted at - paid little – die prematurely - put your family in a condemned slum in Siyathemba or some place else - miles from civilization - and are prepared to work your butt off - risking your life in Burundi - DRC - in all weather and terrains - both day and night - whilst watching the economic recession erode your original benefits package - then please stay on the line. Your call will be answered shortly by the next available bitter - passed -over for promotion - Army Recruiter located in a beer drinking hole down by your nearest military barrack.

Have a pleasant day - and thank you again for trying to contact the South Africa Army.”

Sounds spooky – does it not? Yet - jokes aside and gloves off - the above scenario is likely - particularly when cheque book revolutionaries - who call themselves union leaders – make reckless statements about the ‘constitutional right’ of soldiers to protest – and are allowed to reduce SADF into a training centre for a new generation of anarchists.

Bravo to the Ministry of Defense for pursuing the democratic route of obtaining a High Court interdict (01 September 2009) prohibiting unions from illegal protest and also prohibiting their officials to encourage the same. In other countries or even here under apartheid - military ill discipline would have warranted - not ‘rubber bullets and water canons’ – but ‘death by firing squad’.

One is not suggesting that military ‘defenders of South Africa’s democracy’ have no right to be heard or to unionize. Certainly those rights - enshrined in country's constitution must be upheld. More so - there is no wisdom in training these guys, giving them military weapons and a uniform - and then denying them reasonable wages and decent working conditions - only to act surprised when car hijackings - cash-in-transit heists and mall robberies - conducted with military precision - become the order of the day. This is why it is urgent and required for the management of the armed forces (SANDF) - the soldiers unions (SAND and SASF) to bring stability through robust dialogue and due process.

But surely - there are unacceptable ways of expressing displeasure. First - throwing a petrol bomb into a police vehicle car and vandalizing others is a ‘bad card’. Further - timing an illegal strike to coincide with the SADC regional brigade meant for peace-keeping is mischievous - if not treasonous.

It must be noted that the inability of the country’s military leadership to address the aspirations of military personnel dates back to days before the African National Congress (ANC) came into power. In fact - the advent of a new democratic dispensation in 1994 is partly what led to the formation of military unions in the first place. Yet – fact be told - the current administration led by President Jacob Zuma and defense Minister Sisulu is hardly four months in office and already some soldiers are picketing. There is something odd and totally unacceptable with this picture!!

"Umangoye uyanuka" - (Nguni saying)- Literally translated means "I smell a rat"

Race - sex row as runner 'steals' both gold and headlines

2009-09-04T05:41:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

An 18 year old South African athlete wins a gold-medal in the 800m World Athletics Championships in Berlin and suddenly her sex is questioned. There is no doubt she has the usual plumbing – but because she won - the International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) wants to verify if she is 100% standard female.

Mokgadi Caster Semenya - who grew up in deep poverty in South Africa’s rural hinterland of Limpopo province - clocked times which belie her youth – beating Janeth Jepkosgei - the defending champion - by 2.45 seconds - more than 0.45 of a second faster than world renowned Kelly Holmes's career best.

Granted - Caster does have much more body mass than most girl athletes her age. Her supposedly mannish characteristics - natural as they are – brought to the fore her gender and subsequent claims that this ‘ambiguity’ could cause chemical and physiological differences that would give her a genetic advantage. But as President Zuma pointed out – verification of gender did not require the IAAF to trample on her privacy and dignity.

That noted - a lot has been said which does not seem to make sense - either in moral or strategic terms – the extent to which I am tempted to take the intellectually lazy route of assuming some of the comments are simply crazy or stupid. Except – that approach would not render the discussion more productive. Instead – the only hope lies in assuming views expressed – no matter how ridiculous – are made by smart people using some kind of rationale.

At the Johannesburg airport – where more than 2000 singing - dancing and horn-blowing supporters came to welcome Caster and other athletes returning from the IAAF World Championships – the absence of ‘white’ fans was conspicuous. ANC Youth League President Julius Malema and other political ‘bigwigs’ took issue - insisted the call for ‘gender testing’ by the IAAF was a sign of ‘yet another victimisation of a black person by cruel - evil white people’. Clearly – a problematic statement considering the fact that statistics indicate a fairly even spread of testing across racial groups in athletic events. Even moreso - that Caster herself has professionally benefited from relationships with 'white' people.

Others – as if suspecting Caster was pretending to be a female or a post-operative transsexual - offered notions on how women and men should ‘look’ – dress - behave and perform.

Sally Cross – founder of Intersex South Africa observed: “the suspicion that Caster is not a ‘real woman’ was based purely on secondary sexual characteristics - muscular build – deep-ish voice and some facial hair”.

In a nutshell – the commentary surrounding Caster’s gender probe underpinned societies’ current dominant expectations regarding race and gender.

Later - Caster met South Africa President Jacob Zuma who denounced the athletics world governing body's handling of gender tests and congratulated the runner for her focus and refusal to wade into the debate.

President Zuma argued that Caster’s gender verification request had gone beyond what is reasonable and had infringed her dignity as a person – in particular the leakage of the IAAF verification request to the media.

"It is one thing to seek to ascertain whether or not an athlete has an unfair advantage over others - but it is another to publicly humiliate an honest professional and competent athlete." President Zuma had said.

And for pointing out that Caster was treated in a humiliating manner – and recognizing the need to allow due process - one need not be apologetic to say that President Zuma’s intervention indicated a smarter person than one often made out to be. Or at the very least – one who is as smart as you and me.

The President’s remarks triggered further countless debates. Some even suggested Zuma’s usual “be nice to all" enigmatic behavior was just a strange character flaw – that his words and deeds regarding the Caster-sex furore were irrational.

Irrational or not - President Zuma’s comments must be understood in the context of the dangerous - often fatal stakes of political leadership in South Africa and it should be said - in many other parts of the world – where racial and gender tolerance remain weak. It was critical to carefully orchestrate the debate away from the divisive racial and ill-informed gender rhetoric that seemed to dominate radio – TV and newspaper columns. And succeed President Zuma did - at least judging by media narratives that later ensured.

The controversy has been steered away from racial and intersex misrepresentations – ushering more nuanced conversations regarding the idea of non-binary gender.

Needless to say - contrary to the buzz and allegations of intrigue- gender testing is very common – particularly in athletics. Further - gender testing – though not conclusive - is certainly not based on how masculine or feminine someone looks or sounds - as been suggested by others.

And while the story of Caster Semenya is still being written – South Africa owes ANC’s Julius Malema a biscuit for stating that there is a much-needed and meaningful discussion to be had about sports development in South Africa - and that it was wrong to treat South Africa’s latest golden girl as an object of international derision and not as a person who harbors feelings like all of us. Yet still – mistreatment not withstanding – it was not right for anyone to inflame an already terrible mistake by the IAAF – that of disclosing the ‘gender probe’ to the media – in the process infringing on Caster’s privacy.

Obama and the Gates – Crowley saga: Putting a colorless sock on it

2009-08-05T03:48:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

Professor Henry Louis Gates Jr - a respected African-American scholar was briefly handcuffed like a common criminal by Cambridge police officer James Crowley after his neighbor Lucia Whalen reported seeing "two males with backpacks" trying to gain access to a home. Gates - returning home from a trip overseas - and his driver were contending with a stuck front door.

The story hit headlines and all coverage seemed to point to a single conclusion: US race relations remain complex despite progress since the 1960s.

Cambridge Police Department reports - authored by Sergeant James Crowley and Officer James Figueroa - quote an irate Gates yelling - "This is what happens to black men in America! -" and - when asked by Crowley to speak with him outside the residence - Gates replied - "ya - I'll speak with your mama outside." The 68 year old Gates denies making the alleged remarks.

Sgt. Crowley filed a disorderly conduct charge against Prof. Gates – which was quickly dropped by prosecutors.

The uproar was huge. Even President Barack Obama - who traditionally has tried hard to rise above the racial fray - created a fire storm when in response to a question - said the Cambridge police had "acted stupidly" in their arrest of Gates.

With those comments – some fire fighting was inevitable.

At an ensuing press conference - Obama said he spoke with the officer who arrested Gates and told him that he understood his previous words left “an impression that I was maligning the Cambridge police department -” an impression he did not want to make. He then suggested the two men resolve the matter over a few beers at the White House.

Eventually Obama sat down for a photo opportunity on 30 July 2009 at the Rose Garden - with the two men in question. He must have hoped for at least two things; that the significance of the meeting would be a "positive lesson" in a national dialogue on race and also to put behind his comments about the racially charged incident.

News media ran amok with trivial descriptions of the meeting – which included details of snacks consumed - while others pontificated about the types of beer sipped by the men.

Gates who was originally scheduled for the Jamaican Red Stripe ended up having a Samuel Adams Light – a beer named after the legendary Samuel Adams – an American statesman and philosopher in colonial Massachusetts. Adams died in 1803 as a leader of the movement that became the American Revolution, and was one of the architects of the principles that shaped the political culture of the United States. Adams had critics like Ralph Harlow who characterized him as a "neurotic crank" driven by an "inferiority complex".

The reports were almost mute on issues relating to the 911 call that led Sgt. Crowley to arrest Prof. Gates on disorderly conduct charges.

Asked about the president's contribution to the meeting - Sgt. Crowley said: "He provided the beer". News agencies and online social networks - including Reuters and Twitter blogs - characterized Obama as the bartender-in-chief at a "beer summit" of the main players - Prof. Gates Jr. and police officer James Crowley”.

I suspect what Sgt. Crowley did not say is that - ‘tongue in cheek’ - Obama told he and Prof. Gates to ‘put a sock on it’ – that they were being so noisy as to ‘inflame racial hatred’ –distracting America from focusing on the immediate social and economic issues – including health care and the unfolding global economic meltdown. Of-course - ‘putting a sock’ in whatever was causing the ‘noise’ would cool it down – but only for a while.

The President so far

President Barack Obama displayed rare leadership on the Gates-Crowley issue. In spite of the rant from some circles - only an honest and self-assured person can fess up to the fact that racial profiling still exists in America and that indeed - the practice will remain a ‘big issue’ in the American logic for much longer.

While noting that social attitudes continue to shift for the better with regard to race – I have seen 'non-whites' treated differently by both ‘black and white’ police. I have witnessed the trend at airports where non-whites get pulled out of line for additional security checks or get hassled at passport control – though I must admit in my limited visits to the US – I have not experienced personally this kind of maltreatment.

Yet still, disturbing US survey figures confirm that a third of black high school students end up in jail and never graduate from college - while the average poverty rate among African-American communities is 25%. Social scientists disagree about who to blame for these failures: social trends - history or the general failure of black leadership. Meanwhile - the culture of distrust between black and white borders on antipathy – with remarks that black racism against whites is now "the real problem".

The fact that this incident has received so much media attention - Obama said “is a testimony to the fact that these are issues that are still very sensitive here in America … Because of our history - because of the difficulties of the past - you know - African Americans are sensitive to these issues.”

Interestingly - much as the above remarks have earned Obama the ‘reverse racism’ charge - others going as far as predicting his descent into oblivion - the opposite is also likely – that Obama is probably the best chance America has to heal the wounds of the past.

Those who continue to discredit Obama could be ‘missing the boat’ and perhaps should take the advice from the blogger who predicts: The Wall of Shame will contain their names - for their children to remember - and scorn them for failure to recognize the ‘golden opportunity’ Obama presents for America to turn way from its horrific racial past.

Racism in America has been around for so long and Prof. Gates is right when he says ‘it is so wrong’. Sadly - the demons of that past will continue to haunt Obama as he tries to maintain his political upper-hand - particularly the endorsement by white men and women - without whom - Obama could not have won the presidential election. According to a Pew Research Centre poll - Obama's job approval rating fell from 61 percent in mid-June to 54 percent in July - in part due to his handling of the Gates-Crowley situation.

A glimpse into President Jacob Zuma's inauguration

2009-05-24T12:50:00.000-07:00

The day is 9 May 2009. I am at the heart of excitement in South Africa. I arrive in Pretoria around 3.30am and despite the cold and rain - the streets are lined with security and people wanting to be part of President Jacob Zuma’s Inauguration.

Broadcast and other media crews are getting set up at the Union Buildings. The official ceremony will take place at the Amphitheatre. Although this open-air space is sizeable – it is enough to take only 5000 invited guests. Further down the Union Buildings is a lawn ground and there – over 30 000 people are expected.

Roads will be closed from 4am for most of the day. Hundreds are already in the cue at the Rietondale sports ground – about three kilometers from the ceremony venue. From here – everyone is transported on buses – manned by armed personnel.

Dignitaries pour in despite a sudden downpour of rain. It is cold. I am shivering but few are perturbed by the rain and sooner volunteers bring umbrellas for the media teams filed on the entrance used by the dignitaries.

Among the most glamorous dignitaries are President Zuma’s three wives – two of whom arrive on the same vehicle. The presidential spouses trigger great interest among journalists. The same goes for the more than 30 mainly African heads of state – who include former Presidents Nelson Mandela - Thabo Mbeki -the controversial but popular President of Zimbabwe - Robert Mugabe and his newly appointed Prime Minister - Morgan Tsvangirai.

Also present are newly elected members of parliament – premiers - presiding officers of Parliament – diplomats – representatives of multilateral bodies such as the United Nations - Southern African Development Community- as well as local and international business and community leaders. The African Union is represented by none other than the current chairperson – Colonel Maummar Gadaffi of Libya.

Notably absent are military leaders from Mauritania - New Guinea and Madagascar – all of whom have usurped power in their countries through the barrel of a gun. Also conspicuously absent is the Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. The International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for al- Bashir’s arrest in March 2009 - accusing him of war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Darfur region of Sudan. It is as well that he has stayed away from South Africa as the government would have had to arrest him for alleged war crimes.

Eventually - President-elect Jacob Zuma hits the red carpet – accompanied by lady number one – his very first wife - Sizakele Khumalo. The national army Generals and Admirals greet Zuma at the entrance.

Whispers abound among the guests. Traditionalists speak of Zulu mythology concerning rain. In the Zulu tradition - it is a good sign to experience none-violent rain during an important event.

It is time for the ceremony to begin and a strange thing happens. The rain stops as though on cue and a waxing sun graces the occasion.

Before the presidential oath – Zuma is conferred with the Order of Mapungubwe by outgoing President Kgalema Motlanthe. This Order is awarded to South African citizens for excellence and exceptional achievement. Past winners include Sydney Brenner in 2005 for putting South Africa on the international map in the field of medicine - Claire Penn for linguistics excellence - Sibusiso Sibisi for his achievements in the field of information technology - Valerie Mizrahi in the field of biochemistry and molecular biology.

After a series of procedural routines - Zuma takes the takes the oath and with this gesture - the leader of the African National Congress officially becomes South Africa's new president.

President Zuma’s reconciliatory speech is heard over loudspeakers as crowd stands in contemplative silence punctuated by the occasional cheer.

Then it is time for the National Salute - observed by Zuma as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.

Zuma is greeted by the National Ceremonial Guard - a 21-gun salute - a flight by four helicopters of the South African Air Force (SAAF) - a precision massed fly past by aircraft of the SAAF - and a display by the Silver Falcons - all operated by the most accomplished and senior civilian and military pilots.

There is the Rooivalk - Afrikaans for ‘Red Kestrel'. The craft is part of a project to build SA’s first indigenous attack helicopter which began in 1984. The first flight of the first prototype was in 1990. According to Noseweek publication - the Rooivalk has been used in SA’s peacekeeping operations in Sudan.

There is the Gripen - South Africa's newest fighter - a brand new multi-role jet manufactured by Sweden. On 18 July 2006 - the first of the SAAF’s new Gripen two-seat multi-role fighter jets took to African skies for the first time.

The Light Fixed Wing Formation took on the sky led by craft mainly utilised for commuting and casualty evacuation. There is also craft often used in Maritime operations - aerial reconnaissance - electronic warfare - navigator training and airborne command and control.

The presidential jet – Inkwazi – adds to the day’s aura – saluting its primary passenger. The aircraft is fitted with long-range fuel tanks - which allow for a non-stop ferry to Europe.

The South African Air Forces trainer craft steal the day with the diamond showcase. Making up the rear of the Diamond is the South African Air Force Formation conducted by the Aerobatic Team - the Silver Falcons in beautiful colours representing both the Air Force and the Country. These aircraft have been in service of the SAAF for 45 years.

South Africa’s military influence is evident on the final formation - the Combat Formation - made up of four Gripens and five Hawks. The Gripen is the Air Force’s new high tech fighter aircraft. This asset - enabled in part by information technology – affords a competitive war-fighting advantage. The Hawk compliments the effort - holistically designed to train fighter pilots for a smooth transition to Gripen. All aircrew and technical personnel are reportedly satisfied with the latest acquisition of the Gripen and Hawk - all part of the famed ‘arms deal’.

All this military power brings with it huge leadership responsibility. So far – many say SA’s intent remains unquestionable – buttressed significantly by the appointment of the highly respected - scholarly and experienced Dr. Lindiwe Sisulu – to the position of Minister of Defense.

As soon as the official ceremony concludes - music blasts over loudspeakers. President Zuma subsequently walks down to the people who have watched the ceremony on TV screens from lawns below the Amphitheatre. After a short speech – a huge concert kicks in. There are several more concerts and parties planned throughout the day and evening.

It is truly a historical occasion.

Somali Piracy: What are the lessons?

2009-04-22T09:59:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

There are lessons to be learnt from Somalia’s piracy problem. First – lawlessness not only gives rise to criminals - it also prepares ground for the exploitation of a country’s resources by stronger powers. Second - defending human security by firm means need not be limited to application of force.

The ‘bloody’ 2009 Easter Sunday is my talking point. Ostensibly – in self-defense - US Navy snipers – known as the SEALS - rescued the captain unhurt but in the process killed three Somali hijackers – triggering an array of media shock and outrage. While the event marked a dramatic end to the attempted hijack of the U.S.-flagged Maersk Alabama – it has also become a source of renewed displeasure towards US foreign policy and no doubt potential extremism.

The surgical rescue operation pitied the world’s most powerful navy – against a small band of Somali gun trotters – armed with a mishmash of high and low-tech paraphernalia - utilizing satellite phones - guns and rocket-propelled grenades - wobbly wooden ladders and small worn-out fishing boats – sometimes towed by hijacked "mother ships."

However - in spite of the much fêted US rescue mission - hardly 24 hours later –– hijackers stepped up the seizure of ships along the coast of Somalia - highlighting the challenge facing U.S. President Barack Obama as he vows to curb the region's growing pirate threat.

Tip of the iceberg

Obama has vowed to "halt the rise of piracy" and the Pentagon says it is developing anti-pirate measures in the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden- the transit route for 40 percent of the world's oil. What the US administration is yet to mention – if at all - is the fact that the US Maersk Alabama hijack drama represents a tip of the iceberg - which must be viewed in the context of widespread ‘criminal’ activities conducted by Somali gangs – but also by ‘bogus’ ships from countries as far flung as South Korea - Japan and Spain. These illegal ships evade international maritime rules - often flying flags of expediency from sea-friendly nations – and sometimes paying corrupt Somali ministers or warlords for protection or to secure fake licenses. It is a vicious practice which sustains piracy in Somalia and consequently - the current civil war.

Somalia’s 3-330 km (2-000 miles) of coastline — the longest in continental Africa is abuzz with foreign vessels from around the world – some illegally dumping ‘toxic waste’ and others competing for fishing stocks with the country's own poorly-equipped fishermen. Peter Lehr - editor of Violence at Sea: Piracy in the Age of Global Terrorism says the first ‘pirate’ gangs emerged in the '90s to protect against these foreign trawlers.

“The names of existing pirate fleets - such as the National Volunteer Coastguard of Somalia or Somali Marines - are testament to the pirates' initial motivations”.

At stake is a particularly rich patch for tuna - sardines and mackerel - and other profitable species of seafood - including lobsters and sharks.

Sugule Ali- a local Somali “pirate” - told the New York Times in 2008;

“We consider sea bandits those who illegally fish in our seas and dump waste in our seas and carry weapons in our seas. We are simply patrolling our seas. Think of us like a coast guard.”

A 2005 United Nations Environmental Program report - citing local complaints- noted the waste had resulted in far higher than normal cases of respiratory infections- mouth ulcers and bleeding- abdominal hemorrhages and unusual skin infections among many inhabitants of the areas around the northeastern towns of Hobbio and Benadir on the coast of the Indian Ocean. At the time of the report - it cost $2.50 per ton for a European company to dump these types of materials off the Horn of Africa - as opposed to $250 per ton to dispose of them cleanly in Europe.

Pandora’s Box

Merit not withstanding - the killing of 3 hijackers by the US Navy on Easter Sunday – is a definite ‘pandora’s box’ if you ask me. The trial in New York - of the 16-year-old Abdi Wali Abdulqadir Muse– a pirate who surrendered during the dramatic rescue of the American captain of the Maersk Alabama - is likely to raise other violations of maritime regulations committed by foreign ships. This is the view expressed by Ron Kuby - a New York-based civil rights lawyer who is said be in discussions about forming a legal team to represent the Somali suspect.

”I think in this particular case - there’s a grave question as to whether America was in violation of principles of truce in warfare on the high seas -” said Kuby. ”This man seemed to come onto the Bainbridge under a flag of truce to negotiate. He was then captured.”

Piracy is currently Somalia’s only growth industry and indications are that Somali hijack gangs have increased their range and have started attacking ships as far south as off the coast of Kenya in the Indian Ocean. This explains how teenage Muse ended up on the Maersk Alabama hundred miles off the coast of Somalia. There will be allegations and counter-allegations – making difficult to tell the difference between the wood and the trees. Media reports say the teenager will be the first person to face piracy charges in the US in over a century.

The US already has draft resolution calling upon countries that have naval capacities to deploy vessels and aircraft to actively fight against piracy in the region. The position buttresses another UN Security Council resolution on 20 November 2008 - proposed by Britain to introduce tougher sanctions against Somalia over the country's failure to prevent a surge in sea piracy. On 14 January 2009 – a contact group on piracy was established under a UN Security Council Resolution to coordinate actions among states and organizations to contain piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Participating countries include Australia- China- Denmark- Djibouti- Egypt- France- Germany- Greece- India- Italy- Japan- Kenya- South Korea- The Netherlands- Oman- Russia- Saudi Arabia- Somalia TFG- Spain- Turkey- United Arab Emirates- United Kingdom- United States and Yemen.

The naval power stationed off the coast of Somalia includes almost every major navy in the world – half of which are nations engaged in fishing in the Indian Ocean with a vested interest in deterring piracy. It is however discomforting that to date – piracy is practically on the increase.

In 2008 the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation reported 111 attacks which included 42 successful hijackings – and in all these cases – there were no reports of any hostage executions.

For now - pirates are crying ‘wolf’. "The American liars have killed our friends after they agreed to free the hostage without ransom... this matter will lead to retaliation and we will hunt down particularly American citizens traveling our waters-" AFP quoted Abdi Garad as saying by phone from the pirate lair of Eyl.

There is no denying the presence of naval forces has helped fend off several pirate attacks. Nonetheless – piracy scholars such as Christopher Jasparroit - Associate Professor - National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College – argue that the international response to piracy has been less of a success than reports make it out to be.

“In fact – international response masks deeper problems of unfairness in international economic order and local governance” - says Jasparroit - adding that more is needed, including action that addresses the deeper issues in Somalia – primarily the lack of economic growth and good governance. He deplores the evident snub to UN Secretary General - Ban Ki-moon’s appeal to 50 countries for broader assistance aimed at finding a lasting solution to the Somali crises. Beyond naval support – nothing else has come from these countries.

NB. All images by google

The ghetto grapevine - the farce and the irony

2009-04-12T14:24:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

"Politics - noun. A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles. The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." —Ambrose Bierce - The Devil's Dictionary

Part irony and part farce – the Zuma prosecution has become a source of some extremely bizarre allegations and counter allegations of political intrigue - constant grief for Zuma’s family and friends and a rallying point for several political groupings – mostly those who strive primarily on the misfortunes of the ruling ANC.

Several South African opposition parties and civil society groups openly oppose the decision to withdraw charges against Zuma. At the forefront is the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA). In the party’s application to the North Gauteng High Court – the DA said ‘the decision whether or not to prosecute Zuma should have been determined by a court and not by the NPA’

Party leader Helen Zille lodged an application asking the court to review - correct and set aside the NPA the decision. The party also asked the court to declare that the NPA decision was inconsistent with the constitution and invalid.

At the time of writing this blog - Zille’s spirited attempts were venomously discredited among Zuma’s supporters – ridiculed as ranting by a racist ‘white’ woman who is subconsciously contemptuous of ‘black leadership’. The ANC Youth league questioned why in 2005 - Zille had not reacted in a similar manner regarding a similar decision by the NPA – involving Sir Mark Thatcher – son of former British Prime Minister – Margaret Thatcher.

Mark pleaded guilty to the NPA for violating South Africa's anti-mercenary laws – but never had his day in court. Instead - the NPA released him on the strength that they felt it unlikely they would win a conviction in court – this despite earlier comments that there was a "watertight case" against Mark. How is it that the decision regarding Mark did not register any outrage from any of the groups who now condemn the Zuma charge withdrawal – including Zille? Perhaps – it is because Mark – unlike Zuma – was not running for the country’s presidency.

Could it be – therefore - that the ongoing ‘farce’ about the withdrawal of Zuma charges - borders on ‘interests’ and not ‘principle’? Zille is one of the 40 candidates that are campaigning for the country’s presidency at polls due on 22 April 2009.

The substantive merits of case notwithstanding - why would anyone insist on the continuation of this expensive but clearly bungled prosecution – more so at a time when the country is evidently on the throes of a recession? So far the state expenses associated with the Zuma trial currently stand at slightly more than R100 million – enough to build about 500 low-cost houses for the poor or provide free complete primary education to at least no less than 10 000 under-privileged kids.

This is why the call to reverse the NPA decision is definitely controversial – and certainly - bad news for the desperately poor.

Perhaps the African proverb ought to apply in this instance. “A person whose house is on fire does not go hunting for a rat”. Thus – one could say that Zuma’s remarks concerning his adversaries in the corruption case exemplified rare leadership. He said he did not want revenge against the people who had wronged him.

"We have a country to run, not individuals to chase," he told a televised media briefing.

Zuma said; "Retribution will not take us anywhere. Now is the time for us to focus on improving people's lives.

"We want to put this episode behind us, and focus on our priorities; education, health, rural development, the fight against crime and creating decent jobs despite the economic meltdown.

One hopes this was not ‘gallery-speak’ from a seasoned politician – not least because the current political paralysis arising from the ‘Arms deal’ prosecution charade can only result into further economic uncertainty.

Recall that despite the fact that South Africa experienced massive economic growth during the Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki’s presidential terms - social development has been slower than expected. As at the end of Mbeki’s presidency during the fourth quarter of 2008 - Statistics SA put unemployment figures at 21.9% - though some unofficial figures put it as high as 42%. The same year - between 4.9 and 6.6 million of South Africa's approximately 48 million people of all ages carried HIV - the virus that causes AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). The economic migration into South Africa from poorer countries compounded the problem – resulting in tensions amongst the poor – which in turn triggered an unprecedented orgy of xenophobic violence.

As South Africans go to the polls on 22 April 2009 - cost of living has increased - the economy has stagnated and the country’s reputation as a fertile investment ground for foreign companies is in doubt.

The hard won democratic space in South Africa must be preserved. However - a complete shift in the mode of politics is required. For now – most social and political groups – wittingly or unwittingly - embrace Groucho Marx’ art of politics – “looking for trouble - finding it everywhere - diagnosing it incorrectly - and applying the wrong remedies”. It cannot be right!

Jacob Zuma: The ‘Pawn’ checkmates the ‘King’

2009-04-12T09:08:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

Let me start by making a proviso. First - I support the decision by South Africa’s National Prosecution Agency (NPA) - officially dropping the 16 corruption charges against the President of the African National Congress - Jacob Zuma. The charges relate to contracts and subcontracts in what has become known as the ‘Arms Deal’. Second – I am journalist and not a lawyer – and thus accept my diagnosis of the issue below could be far-fetched.

However – it is perhaps worth highlighting that my ‘novice’ endorsement of the NPA decision resonates with an earlier verdict by Judge Chris Nicholson of the KwaZulu-Natal bench – who - on 12 September 2008 - declared the prosecution of Zuma for corruption and related charges was unlawful. In issuing his verdict - the learned judge said the following:

“For years- the applicant (Zuma) has been under threat of prosecution for serious corruption and yet never brought to trial. There is a ring of the works of Kafka about this”.

Former South Africa President Thabo Mbeki and the NPA disagreed and appealed against the verdict.

Background to the ‘imaginary’ chess contest

For the onlooker enjoying the comfort of hindsight- the alarm bells of political intrigue were loud and clear in the form of a collection of seemingly unrelated events – all involving Jacob Zuma.

For those unaware of Zuma’s illustrious liberation struggle credentials – his chief qualification for becoming South Africa’s deputy-president in 1999 was unquestionable loyalty and an acknowledged lack of desire to succeed his boss – former president Thabo Mbeki. According to this otherwise flawed analysis – Zuma – a self professed servant of the ANC - was a ‘pawn’ at the behest of the ‘king’- the then ANC president Thabo Mbeki.

Cynicism turned into panic - and in some quarters - absolute disapproval – when in April 2001 - front pages of almost all South African newspapers headlined with allegations made by the late State Security Minister - Steve Tshwete - that there was a plot to harm the then president Thabo Mbeki. Alongside the plot accused - Zuma’s name was mentioned – including that of former president Nelson Mandela and three prominent businessmen – namely; Mathews Phosa- Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa - all respected members of the ANC and former presidential aspirants and therefore potential rivals of Mbeki.

The 'King's knight' guns for the 'pawn'

On 23 August 2003 – Bulelani Ngcuka - Mbeki’s chosen National Director of Prosecutions announced at a press conference that Jacob Zuma – then deputy president – had a corruption case to answer relating to the ‘Arms Deal’. Ngcuka added that ‘Zuma would however not be prosecuted because the case was not winnable’. Many questioned Ngcuka’s motive of accusing Zuma in public without the benefit of a trial.

In 2005 – Zuma’s friend and financial advisor – Shabir Shaik was convicted of fraud and corruption in a case related to subcontracts to the ‘Arms Deal’. Judge Hillary Squires concluded there was a mutually benefitial rapport between Zuma and Shaik. Squires implicitly accused Zuma of having received benefits from the ‘Arms Deal’ using Shaik’s companies and partners.

Fired

At the close of Shaik’s case – Mbeki asked Zuma to quit his job without the benefit of a trial. Zuma refused – insisting he was innocent and asking for his day in court. Mbeki opted to fire him even before subjecting him to any legal trial.

To add pain to injury – when Mbeki relieved Zuma of his post – he appointed as replacement – none other than the then Minister of Mineral Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka - wife of Bulelani Ngcuka – the man whom Zuma had accused of plotting the NPA charges.

Allegations of rape

Against the backdrop of a feud between Mbeki and Zuma – on 2 November 2005 - an investigation began into charges that Zuma had raped the 31 years old daughter of a deceased ANC stalwart at his home in Forest Town, Johannesburg. Charges were formally filed n the morning of 6 December 2005.

On 8 May 2006 – Judge Willem van der Merwe acquitted Zuma of the sole charge of rape. Delivering judgment – the learned Judge said the state had not proven the case beyond reasonable doubt.

Referring to the contradictory versions of the events of the night of 2 November 2005 - the judge maintained - "the probabilities favour the accused's version". He said Zuma would not have risked forcing himself on the woman when his own daughter was in the house and police were on guard outside - who would have heard the accused if she had cried out.

Special ‘Browse’ Mole Report

In 2006 – the same year that Zuma’s rape trial ended with an acquittal - the Directorate of Special Operation (DSO) produced a ‘Top Secret’ document known as the Special ‘Browse’ Mole Consolidated Report. The said report leaked to the South African public in 2007.

The report considered extremely inflammatory by the South African parliament – contains political intelligence and numerous allegations and unsubstantiated statements about prominent political figures in South Africa and leaders in African continent.

In essence - the document begins with a conclusion that the former Deputy President Jacob Zuma was involved in a conspiracy – which it says was a threat to the sovereignty and integrity of the South African State. The extract from the introduction reads as follows:

“The conclusion reached as a result of the present browse- is that there are strong indications that former Deputy President Jacob Zuma’s presidential ambitions are fuelled and sustained by a conspiracy playing out both inside South Africa and on the African continental stage”.

The document further implicates groupings like the South African Communist Party - the ANC Youth League - the SACP’s Youth League and Cosatu – who it portrays as seemingly disaffected from the presidency of Thabo Mbeki. The document further alleges that elements within the Security and Intelligence Services appear to be considering the subversion of the apparatus of State in support of a Zuma presidency.

According to the document - the former Chief of the South African Nation Defense Force (SANDF) - Siphiwe Nyanda allegedly raised the issue of possible alignment of the military in support of Zuma - as well as the possibility of a military coup to force President Mbeki to stand down - possibly with foreign military assistance. Zuma’s supporters are portrayed as having powerful links in the South African intelligence community – supported by a select group of senior Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) leaders that are now part of the general staff of the SANDF

On the continental level – the document makes the claim that several Heads of State and leaders of African politico/military groupings - apparently alienated by South Africa’s perceived pre-eminence in the African Union and especially in Nepad - appear to be providing both funding and support to Zuma’s cause.

More specifically - the document portrays the President of Angola- Eduardo Dos Santos and Libya’s Muammar Kaddafi as giving support to the Zuma conspiracy. It alleges a $3 - $5 million financial support by the Libyan government - facilitated by the SACP Secretary General- Blade Nzimande - towards “promotion of a street level revolution in South Africa - in support of Zuma’s political aspirations.”

The document concludes with recommendations to pursue investigations via the South African Reserve bank to establish transactions that may affect the matter. It calls for briefing of appropriate agencies to investigate all allegations contained in the report. It characterizes the “Zuma camp” at one level as a broad front of the discontent- while at another level as a conspiratorial co-ordination whose players needed urgent identification and appropriate action taken.

On 30 May 2007 - the National Security Council appointed an Investigative Task Team - to investigate the leaked document. Perhaps it is useful here to highlight that the tapes - which became subject to the NPA decision to withdraw charges against Zuma - arose from the ‘Browse’ Mole Report investigations. The recordings were part of tapes obtained legally by intelligence agencies while probing an inflammatory spy document of the now defunct Scorpions.

The Scorpions disbanded following recommendations of the parliamentary committee investigating the matter. The unit had no intelligence service mandate and that they relied on private intelligence – the parliamentary committee pointed out in its submissions.

The “Browse Mole” report made headlines in 2006 after it leaked to the public – also finding its way to Cosatu general-secretary Zwelinzima Vavi in May 2007.

Daggers drawn

From the 16th to 20 December 2007 – the ANC held its 52nd national conference in Polokwane. The race for the party presidency was the highlight. Mob-like scenes and bitterness dominated the party conference – epitomized by acrimony between the only two leadership candidates – Zuma and Mbeki. The media dubbed the event "The Battle for Succession".

Zuma won the hearts of the majority of the more than 4,000 delegates – soundly toppling Mbeki. As ANC president – Zuma would automatically become the party’s presidential candidate in the April 2009 polls – the date on which Mbeki’s term was due to expire.

Zuma's defeat of the incumbent president Thabo Mbeki for leadership of the party brought up the notion of ‘two centres of power’ – leading to speculation of a perceived split between the Mbeki -led government administration and the Zuma led ANC.

Political vendetta alleged

On 28 December 2007 – hardly two weeks after the watershed Polokwane conference - the NPA recharged Zuma - now ANC president - with 18 counts including fraud – corruption - racketeering and money laundering. The NPA action instantly led to allegations of a political vendetta - suffice to say - triggering the beginning of an end for Mbeki’s role in the ANC.

On 4 August 2008 - Zuma asked the High Court to set aside the NPA’s decision to prosecute him and to declare it invalid. He was successful in his bid.

Delivering his verdict - Judge Nicholson inferred that some state actors were guilty of serious violations of the constitution approximating criminal intent – saying there was evidence they had ‘interfered’ with the independent functions of the NPA. He further pointed out that:

”The timing of the indictment (of Zuma) by Mr. Mpshe on 28 December 2007, after the President suffered a political defeat at Polokwane was most unfortunate”.

Mbeki appealed to the Constitutional Court - arguing that the Judge Nicholson's findings were "highly prejudicial to himself - both in his capacity as head of state supporters saw the move as an attempt to re-charge their leader -‘via the back and head of the national executive - as well as in his personal capacity" – Zuma’s door’. The spectre of a case - previously struck off the roll due to what Judge Nicholson had described as unreasonable delays was now real.

The ‘King’ under siege

On 21 September 2008 the ruling ANC unceremoniously withdrew former President Thabo Mbeki from office – a mere seven months before his time. Yet in all this - ANC party insiders confirm Zuma exhibited great maturity. Despite his own sacking as deputy President on South Africa by Thabo Mbeki and subsequent prosecution – remarkably - Zuma was opposed to the ousting of Mbeki before his office term but the majority in the ANC national executive committee insisted on Mbeki’s removal.

In the context of the current global economic meltdown and owing to the massive development challenges faced by South Africa - the manner in which Mbeki – despite his unquestionable intellect and sterling contribution to post apartheid South Africa - got the boot - was indeed a tragic display of party infighting - or - was it simply a case of the ‘pawn’ checkmating the ‘king’?

Mbeki had earlier appealed to the Constitutional Court. In his court submissions - Mbeki argued that he was not part of the hearing that informed Judge Nicholson’s findings. Observers had a field day talking about this twist of irony – pointing to the fact that Mbeki had earlier fired Zuma under similar circumstances – based on findings arrived at without duly consulting Zuma. In this logic – ‘what was good for the goose was not necessarily good for the gander’.

The Constitutional Court dismissed Mbeki's appeal. All eight Constitutional Court judges agreed that it was "not in the interests of justice to hear Mbeki's application at this stage"- adding that the decision was ‘due to the fact that the NPA was in the process of appealing the same judgment in the Supreme Court of Appeal.

Celebrations in the Zuma camp were short-lived. On 28 November 2008 – the Supreme Court heard the NPA appeal at which hearing - overturned Judge Nicholson’s ruling - that technically exposing Zuma to further prosecution. Judge Louis Harms read out the findings in a nationally televised hearing - saying the lower court had "overstepped the limits of its authority" by hinting at political interference in the case.

Checkmate?

In a surprise turn-around on 6 April 2009- with more than R100 million spent by the State in an attempt to prosecute Zuma- acting National Director of Public Prosecutions Mokotedi Mpshe announced the NPA was dropping all the Zuma charges – citing an abuse of process by the former head of the Directorate of Special Operations (DSO)- Leonard McCarthy.

Mpshe said Zuma’s lawyers had made serious allegations about the alleged manipulation of the NPA - substantiated by recordings of telephone conversations. The lawyers planned to use the said recordings in court during Zuma’s permanent stay of prosecution application. According to the NPA - the tapes were secured legally by intelligence agencies while probing an inflammatory ‘Browse Mole’ document of the now defunct Scorpions. With that – the NPA opted to withdraw its charges.

Following the NPA decision – on 7 April 2009 - the Durban High Court subsequently endorsed the NPA decision.

Additional Note:

We have witnessed in the ANC – what students of dialectical materialism call ‘the unity and conflict of opposites’. Conflict in this sense represents a source of ‘progress.’ Put differently – the reconcilable contradictions within the ANC represent the natural tensions between the ‘thesis’ (dominant theory) and the ‘antithesis’ (views that are alternate to the dominant theory). This blog is a humble attempt at arriving at a synthesis. According to dialectical science – this is how awareness evolves.

Retired Archbishop Desmond Tutu Emeritus and leading human rights campaigner - may have expressed his disdain of a possible Zuma presidency – however – he is also on record for suggesting that God’s standards are very low. “You will be surprised at some of the people you find in heaven” – Tutu once told an attentive crowd.

When a nickel is not worth a dime

2009-04-05T16:05:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

For a few brief, shocking moments on 28 March 2009, the contradictions that underlie the global economic crisis surfaced into plain view as UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown declared ‘the death of the ‘Washington Consensus’ in favor of a ‘New Consensus’.

It nonetheless took a nifty effort by G-20 Finance Ministers and Reserve Bank Governors from Washington, Europe and Asia to downplay Gordon’s assertion in a joint statement. The official statement reiterated commitment to restoration of lending by tackling problems in the financial system, through continued liquidity support, bank recapitalization and dealing with impaired assets. In addition - as the summit ended on 3 April 2009, the G-20 leaders collectively pledged more than $1 trillion in emergency aid amid a financial crisis that has plagued every corner of the world.

Image by google

Nevertheless, despite the public posturing by the leaders, angry demonstrators spoke their plain truth. Tear gas canisters exploded, protesters pushed back riot police; and as if taking a cue from the protests, the official leader of the Washington delegation, President Barack Obama entered the fray, confirming Brown’s earlier tocsin.

“If it were just Roosevelt and Churchill sitting in a room with a brandy, that’s an easier negotiation” Obama told the press – adding; “But that’s not the world we live in, and it shouldn’t be the world we live in.”

To spend or not spend

At the heart of the G-20 fissure – was the opposition to news that America would pump trillions of US dollars into its economy to combat the widening global recession. The rotating president of the European Union, Mirek Topolanek called the plan the “road to hell.”

Prompted by fear that America’s appetite for spending will undermine foreign reserves – mostly stored in US treasuries, bonds and other such instruments, Zhou Xiaochhuan, Governor of the People’s Bank of China was next to register his apprehension in published essay - openly suggesting the implementation of an International Monetary Fund currency to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s currency reserve.

As it now seems – some American citizens are equally uncomfortable with the proposed government spending strategy. They ask where the government hopes to get the money from. Will the government simply resort to printing the money instead?

Zimbabweans, Argentineans and other nationalities who have experienced hyperinflation will tell you – that printing money is just taxation in another form. Rather than tax the people of their money, government reduces the purchasing power of money.

The Paradox of thrift

Exactly how President Obama and the US treasury hope to raise the stimulus packages for direct expenditures is not clear. What is certain is the close fit between current US government thinking with something approximating ‘the paradox of thrift’, an economic theory once propounded by John Maynard Keynes. The paradox states that if everyone saves more money during times of recession, then aggregate demand will fall and will in turn lower total savings in the population because of the decrease in consumption and economic growth. According to this logic, spending is thus viewed as a necessary antidote for restoring growth.

Economists who oppose Keynes’ theory often highlight two points of departure. First, if demand is reduced, prices will fall (not withstanding government intervention), and the resulting lower price will stimulate demand. Second, and perhaps more important, savings represent funds that can be extended as loans and this can effectively result in the lowering of interest rates, which in turn stimulates borrowing. Thus, consumer saving or a decline in consumer spending is counter-balanced by an increase in spending by institutions such as banks and other venture capital enterprises.

However, while Obama’s extraordinary call for stimulus liquidity now seemingly backed by the G20 leaders may temporarily lessen the effects of the recession, it may be worth considering other likely unintended consequences? Individuals, including some American citizens and countries whose foreign reserves are stored in US Dollars are worried by the ‘specter’ of a ‘nickel’ costing more than a ‘dime’. Such currency devaluation could render lifetime savings and many a country reserves worthless.

Unpacking the real politic behind the Dalai Lama South Africa ‘hullabaloo’

2009-03-25T07:48:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

Indeed, the Dalai Lama is a controversial man. The last place one expects to find the exiled ‘spiritual’ and sacred leader of the Tibetan people, ‘His Holiness’ Tenzin Gyatso, is at the Universal Studios in Los Angeles, California. Yet, there I saw him in April 2001, clad in his customary maroon robes, accompanied by Buddhist monks, as he toured the famous Hollywood theme park.

‘His Holiness’ Tenzin Gyatso was 2 years old, when after the death of the 13th Dalai Lama in 1937, was identified as the 14th reincarnation of the ‘Buddha of Compassion’. And when South Africa denied him a visa to attend a peace conference in Johannesburg, the uproar was unprecedented.

The conference initially scheduled to start on 27 March 2009, was postponed after Nobel laureate Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Fredrick William de Klerk, South Africa’s last white president, who shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Nelson Mandela in 1993, said they would boycott the peace conference if the Dalai Lama was kept out of the country, as did the executive director of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, Geir Lundestad.

South Africa’s intentions in barring the Dalai Lama were unclear considering it would have been his third visit to South Africa. His first visit was in 1996 followed by another in 1999. The official statement issued by Thabo Mabese, government spokesperson, said the Tibetan leader’s presence “would not be in South Africa’s best interests.”

The issue was confounded by the fact that the decision barring the Dalai Lama entry into South Africa came as ethnic Tibetans prepared for the 50th anniversary of a failed uprising against Chinese rule that led to his predecessor’s flight into exile in India. China accuses the 14th Dalai Lama of pursuing independence for Tibet, while he maintains that he is seeking only self-government, not separation. China has sent thousands of troops to the Tibetan region to quell any repeat of the anti-Chinese riots that broke out in 2008 in Lhasa, the Tibetan capital.

When the Dalai Lama was awarded the Nobel peace prize in 1989, this had less to do with his Buddhist orientation than it had to do with the political situation in Tibet and above all, the bloody events of 4 June 1989, in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. At least 2,000 Chinese students and workers protesting against the Chinese government were ruthlessly gunned down by government security forces.

And yet - the issue of Tibet’s international legal status continues to evoke little resonance among South African authorities. Instead, most government officials echo China’s position that there is “only one China in the world and it does not recognize the so-called independence of Tibet.”

The Chinese people are prevented from making free use of the Internet to find out what happened in Tiananmen Square in Beijing and other Chinese cities. Any attempt to search for "Liu Si," the Chinese short form for 4 June, on the Baidu or Sohu search engines is completely blocked inside China.

At present - China imports iron ore, gold, copper, chrome, timber and paper pulp from South Africa. The fact that South Africa exports un-beneficiated minerals to China, while Chinese imports comprise value added products, such as appliances, has caused concern over that country's penetration of the South African market.

Academics, politicians, economists and lobby groups are working up to the fact that Chinese companies are taking out of Africa more than they put in. According to World Atlas Trade Data, the major African trading partners with China for 2008 were Angola (24 %); South Africa (17 %); Sudan (8 %); Nigeria (7 %) and Egypt (6 %) in terms of total trade. Trade with these countries signifies 62 % of China’s total trade with Africa.

Of-course, the Dalai Lama is a complex man. He has a close and problematic relationship, including financial interests, with Shoko Asahara, founder of the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo (Supreme Truth), alleged mastermind of the 1994 biological attack that killed 7 people, and 1995 sarin gas subway attack that killed 12, and injured more than 5,000 in Tokyo Japan.

Arguably, the Tibetan issue has a higher profile today than at any time since the 1959 flight of his predecessor, the 13th Dalai Lama, which is owed in no small part to the secret assistance channeled by the United States of America. In October 1998, the Dalai Lama's administration acknowledged that it received $1.7 million a year in the 1960s from the U.S. Government through the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and also trained a resistance movement in Colorado (USA).

When the Dalai Lama was quizzed by the New York Times on 3 November 1993 – concerning his brother who was involved in leading a CIA sponsored guerrilla movement against the Chinese from the late 1950's until the early 1970's, he quipped. “I'm always against violence. But the Tibetan guerrillas were very dedicated people. They were willing to sacrifice their own lives for the Tibetan nation. And they found a way to receive help from the C.I.A”.

He added, “Now, the CIA.'s motivation for helping was entirely political. They did not help out of genuine sympathy, not out of support for a just cause. That was not very healthy”.

Admittedly, Dalai Lama’s response signified a mutual back scratching. In the US cold war against China, the CIA found an ally in the Dalai Lama Group. Thubtan Norbu, the Dalai Lama’s eldest brother played an active role in the guerrilla group, while his second-eldest brother, Gyalo Thondup, reportedly established an intelligence operation with the CIA.

Facts granted; could it be that the South African government intelligentsia is concerned that the enthusiasm for the 14th Dalai Lama’s ‘holy cloak’ may impinge on the country’s strategic economic and political interests? And assuming this is the case; who then is to say Tibetans will not witness the march into their territory by South African companies assisting and collaborating with the Chinese government to further marginalise the indigenous people?

Further, is the protest by Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Nobel Laureates and ‘self-determination activists’ world over, out of sympathy and human compassion for the Tibetan people? Perhaps, yes. Needless to say the answer would have been emphatic, had it not been for the fact that the respectable Archbishop Tutu was honoured on 01 June 2006 with a ‘Light of Truth’ Award, given by the Dalai Lama.

Small wonder the hullabaloo.

Tribute to Susan

2009-03-12T02:35:00.000-07:00

Poem by Tula Dlamini

Susan
I feel your pain
As you march through the heroes gate
Wondering and waiting for the time
When hate and intransigency shall be a thing of the past

Fret not thyself
None can destroy matter
Only the form changes

Fret not thyself
None can destroy your spirit
For in our memories it shall linger

One day
Very soon
The simplest of our people
Shall demand to know
Who turned the night of joy into a morning of sorrow?

Politicians will politicize
But as Otto Rene Castillo noted
They will be asked by the simplest of our people
“What they did when the poor suffered
When tenderness and life burned out of them?"

Susan
Have no fear
For your table in the next life was prepared before your arrival
And to the children left behind
Know
Some brothers and sisters really do care

NOTE: Susan Nyaradzo Tsvangirai (24 April 1958 - 6 March 2009) was a prominent figure in Zimbabwean politics. She was killed in a car crash. Her husband, Morgan, who had been Prime Minister less than one month at the time of the accident, was injured in the crash which raised suspicions of foul play. Wikipedia has more (Click here)

Stop the ‘blame game’ and the ‘begging’

2009-03-10T07:30:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

I write to request the current leadership in the newly formed ‘transitional government of Zimbabwe’ to stop the 'begging' and ‘blame game’. Instead - to immediately create an enabling environment for competitive trade and for the return of the country’s skilled sons and daughters who are scattered all over the world - so the country can earn revenue from its own fiscal. Expecting handouts to solve the country’s socio-economic problems is to believe in one of the most unlikely events imaginable.

More - seeing those who take sides and want to blame the "other party" shows just how out-of-touch the average citizen in Zimbabwe has become.

It is not about ZANU PF and MDC anymore. The country is way beyond that now.

The rest of the world is in a mess and aid handouts will be hard coming. The sooner Zimbabweans realize there is no longer any means of reversing the final terminal phase of the current imperial economic system - the sooner the bigger task of building democratic institutions that enable productivity and growth for both the individual and the economy can begin.

Today, the U.S. owes its creditors US$11 trillion. The net-effect is that it is the citizens that will have to pay for the excesses of their governments. For example; if America where to pay-off its debt tomorrow - each citizen would have to fork-out US$36 000 – enough to vaccinate thousands in Zimbabwe against measles, polio or such common disease. This is a lot of cash for Americans who are currently witnessing unprecedented levels of job retrenchments, a real estate crisis and a severe market decline. And America is not alone.

In a nutshell – the global meltdown has become almost like a bad dream – particularly for economies that are hugely indebted to international finance arrangements. As soon as consumption falls off in the US – as surely as it will – the Chinese export-led economy will be hit hard.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned Britain will be at the bottom of the league table of major developed countries in 2009, in the weakest year for the global economy since the second world- war. “It’s UK’s worst single-year performance since the Great Depression of the 1930s”, the IMF added.

A slump in Britain also means contraction in linked economies like Germany and inevitably a drop in output in Japan where the government already owes more than owes US$7.8 trillion.

Figures from neighbouring South Africa – the largest economy in Africa are not pleasing either – that is despite what Trevor Manuel and Tito Mboweni tell you. In February 2009, the country recorded its first quarter of negative growth in a decade. Official statistics show that the economy shrank by 1.8 percent in the last three months of 2008. Among the main culprits are a big fall in manufacturing and a drop in global demand for raw materials.

Fortunately for Zimbabwe – the lack of leadership credibility in the past decade has also minimized the country’s exposure to serious debt. Thus a new beginning with little or no foreign aid is not only possible but a necessity. Need I re-iterate - what Zimbabwe needs is to focus within - create a conducive environment for fair trade and democratic citizenship that inspires self-reliance in villages and towns – encourage dialogue and expression of diverse views – evolve a constitution by which all and sundry may be held accountable regardless of race, creed, social standing or political affiliation.

And humbly - may I remind the country’s leadership that Zimbabwe sits on the second largest deposits of platinum – next to South Africa who account for 85% of the world output, in addition to 43 different types of minerals, including gold, diamonds, chrome etc - that remain untapped along the historic ‘Great Dyke’ and in other parts of the country. Further, Zimbabwe has the highest literacy rate per capita in Africa, including among women and a tested agricultural production potential. For a country of no more than 14 million citizens with so many resources, human and material – poverty is a crime against humanity.

Xenophobia, like racism, is morally repugnant

2008-05-28T04:02:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

Image by Google

It took an orgy of violence for many to acknowledge that a huge number of South Africans had a ‘fear or contempt towards that which is foreign or unknown, especially of foreign nationals.

In the blood soaked days that gripped South Africa in May 2008, angry mobs killed more than 56 people and displaced over 35 000. The attacks started in Johannesburg and spread to other cities, typically singling out non-citizens or people perceived as significantly different.

The leadership in South Africa had been warned. In November 2007, President Thabo Mbeki and his government received a ‘self-assessment report’ from the Nepad’s sponsored African Peer Review Mechanism Team which argued “the authorities to re-consider how they dealt with undocumented migrants… foreigners, mostly of African descent, who, according to the report were ‘being subjected to brutality and detention’.

The report emphasized that xenophobia against other Africans was on the rise, and called on the South African government to nip it on the bud.”

At the time, President Thabo Mbeki denied the existence of xenophobic tendencies in South Africa. “It’s simply not true”, he said. “Racism, sexism, marginalisation, lack of awareness and poor access to information were the challenges”, ran the official narrative.

None of government's subsequent action plans made any specific reference to xenophobia as a problem. The only commitment government gave was that it would work towards ensuring the full enjoyment of human rights, nationally.

Like many, Mbeki now acknowledges the problem. He has told South Africans in a televised broadcast that ‘the xenophobic violence that was visited on the foreigners was the opposite of everything South Africans had achieved since the victory over apartheid.’

The fact that some in South Africa still consider accidents of birth as legitimate grounds for discrimination is worrying. This is no less better than Adolf Hilter or any other overt racist would discriminate on the basis of skin color. And if racism is morally unacceptable - and it is - then so is xenophobia, and for exactly the same reasons.

The logic ought to be simpler though. Anyone with a dollop of economic literacy should know that it's wrong for any South African to seek economic prosperity at the expense of foreigners.

It's not okay for South Africa to enrich herself by denying foreigners the right to earn a living; not least because, according to the SA Business Foundation, since the year 2000, more than 37 percent of all SA investments occur in the Southern African Development Community realm but companies are beginning to expand further afield. Thus Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, DRC, Nigeria and Cameroon, for example, are becoming destinations for SA investment.

It's a bad idea to steal other people's right to earn a living in your country, no matter where the victim was born, and then expect that your own investments and people in foreign lands will be protected. More importantly, it impairs the full enjoyment of universal human rights.

Zimbabweans cook their goose

2008-05-14T02:50:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

The electorate in Zimbabwe discounted the consensus-seeking Dr. Simba Makoni. According to the official result released by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, Morgan Tsvangirai won the election, but faced a second-round vote. Tsvangirai garnered 47.9% of the vote, beating President Robert Mugabe with 43.2%...and Makoni came distant third.

In the campaign period leading to March 29 presidential and parliamentary elections, Makoni was upfront in calling for a coalition government and for ‘national and international’ dialogue to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis.

On the other hand, the Morgan Tsvangirai led MDC called for ‘regime change,’ while Robert Mugabe’s ZANU PF said ‘Zimbabwe will never be a colony again’.

In the circus that Zimbabwe politics had become - policy positions were more than a vague indication of the content and character of leadership. Makoni’s politics was moderate than Morgan Tsvangirai who was himself more moderate than Robert Mugabe.

If we accept this premise, we can then infer that it is precisely Makoni's conciliatory proposals that Zimbabweans voted against. Why then are we surprised at the violent beatings and suspicious deaths of political opponents?

Zimbabwe: So many controlled by so few brave men?

2008-02-11T13:12:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

All images by google

In what appeared to be a creeping palace coup, Zimbabwe's former finance minister Dr. Simba Makoni, senior member of the ruling Zimbabwe National People’s Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), announced on 5 February 2008 he would challenge President Robert Mugabe in elections in March 2008.

At first, Makoni said despite his bid to unseat Mugabe, he would prefer running on ZANU PF colours. But that was before 12 February, when a statement by ruling party spokesperson Nathan Shamuyarira confirmed he had been expelled. Makoni countered by saying he would offer himself directly to the Zimbabwean electorate, standing in the presidential poll as an independent.

Mugabe responded by saying Makoni is 'worse than a prostitute' and in one breath likening him to a 'frog that desires to become a cow'. His henchmen threatened blue murder and called Makoni a ‘traitor’.

Zanu-PF has a history of dealing harshly with traitors”, said Joseph Chinotimba, leader of a pro-Mugabe militia which continues to spearhead land invasions against white commercial farmers.

But Makoni himself acts like the challenge on Mugabe is a field of daisies. "I have accepted the call and hereby advise the people of Zimbabwe that I offer myself as candidate for the office of President of Zimbabwe”, Makoni declared at his introductory news conference.

Naysayers dwelt on the fact that it was unlikely Makoni would be capable of steering a large and famously brutal organization, whose entire leadership stands accused by the international community of grave human rights violations.

The pessimistic view was that Makoni had been elevated to lead the mutiny against Mugabe because stronger candidates shied away from the job, and because he was malleable enough to suit the power brokers in the ruling ZANU PF party, who included Zimbabwe’s vice–president Joseph Msika.

Sources’ claiming to be in the ‘know’ said Makoni was also working with party politburo members such as John Nkomo (ZANU PF chairman) and former military commanders Wilfred Mhanda a.k.a Dzinashe Machingura, Rex Nhongo a.k.a Solomon Mujuru, Vitalis Zvinavashe and Dumiso Dabengwa. These men are former commanders of the Zimbabwe African National Liberation Army (ZANLA), while the latter was the Supreme Commander of Zimbabwe People’s Liberation Army (ZIPRA). Both armies fought for Zimbabwe’s independence under the leadership of Mugabe and the late Dr. Joshua Nkomo respectively.

Machingura was a top ZANLA commander in the early 1970s, while Mujuru and Zvinavashe are former commanders of Mugabe’s post-independence Zimbabwe army. After years of incarceration by the Mugabe regime, Dabengwa bounced back as deputy and later Minister of Home Affairs responsible for the country’s police force.

Analysts say these military men wield substantial influence within the country’s security forces that still comprise significant numbers of former guerillas especially in the top ranks.

Once Mugabe suggested he would step down in 2008 and initially it appeared Vice-President Joyce Mujuru was Mugabe’s apparent choice and favorite for the job. On occasions, particularly after the much publicized ‘Tsholotsho declaration’ which sought to curtail Mujuru’s ascendancy to the vice-presidency, it seemed Mugabe was on the brink of signing an exit strategy. But the final phone call never came. Instead, President Mugabe offered himself to stand as ZANU PF’s candidate in the March 2008 election. The whole ordeal left many of his loyalists wondering why he had not changed the name of the party to Mugabe PF

Speculators postulated that international isolation and a rapidly declining economy had compelled the ZANU PF bigwigs led by Mujuru to initiate the ouster campaign. The anti-Mugabe campaign initially hoped he would voluntarily offer to quit power at the ZANU PF party conference held in Goromodzi in December 2006. Instead, Mugabe tried but failed to arm twist his party into endorsing a bid to extend his rule to 2010 without going to the ballot.

According to media reports, subsequent meetings of the central committee and politburo saw Dabengwa, Mujuru and Zvinavashe taking turns to question and challenge Mugabe’s decisions both in the party and in the government.

Wither Makoni?

Of course, assuming the Makoni project had prevailed, he would have had to unlearn the old approach to governance. The 'great leader' mentality and the emphasis on 'representation' as opposed to 'democratic citizenship and participation' simply won’t wash in present day Zimbabwe. With this he would have needed to grasp the intricacies of a globalizing world in which cordial international relations and diplomacy are not the same as negotiating in fear, nor 'selling out'.

It was rather sad that Makoni’s supporters conveniently turned a blind eye to the fact that he had all along been a member of the ruling party's highest decision making body – the politburo. They said he represented a fresh start for everyone. They argued that whatever had happened in the ZANU PF camp was in the past, including the tangled governance decisions, and the confused strategies - all this Makoni had nothing to do with it.

Others argue Makoni deserves every chance try to make a success of the job in his own way, free of prejudgment.

They cited his illustrious performance as a student in the 1970s, studying chemistry in Britain, and attaining a BSc and a PhD.

When the first post-independence government was formed, Simba Makoni was appointed deputy minister of agriculture. He was 30.

He served as minister of energy and of youth before assuming the role of Executive Secretary of the Southern African Development Community, (SADC).

Makoni was re-appointed as finance minister in July 2000, following a bloody election campaign and a disputed result. The economy was collapsing and showing every sign of getting worse.

There is no record of Makoni speaking against his party’s perceived intransigency against political opposition. Small wonder, when Britain proposed active targeted sanctions against Mugabe and his ruling elite for the first time in 2002, Makoni was not excluded from the list. The sanctions were taken on by the European Union (EU). To date, there are about 200 top Zimbabwean officials, including President Mugabe, who are forbidden to enter the EU.

The targeted smart sanctions also entail the freezing of assets of those on the list.

It is important to note the sanctions were targeted only on Mugabe and his ruling elite and not on the generality of the economy and population. As a result, identified individuals and their families have had their bank accounts and assets in the EU and America frozen and movement curtailed. There is no independent confirmation as to the extent of impact these sanctions have had on the said individuals but analysts argue the bearing on the generality of the economy has been minimal.

The ZANU PF’s strategy throughout the crisis has been to blame the country's collapsing economy on a sinister alliance of Britain, the United States of America, white farmers and assorted "traitors", who, allegedly, are conspiring to reverse the country's independence and thus preventing the tackling historic injustices of Zimbabwe's highly unequal land distribution.

This strategy has had limited success, escalating Zimbabwe's economic crisis while failing to silence an increasingly vocal opposition, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which denies the claims of conspiracy and blames the country's plight on the mismanagement and corruption of the Mugabe government.

Mugabe has rejected the criticism and blamed the opposition for instigating the violence.

Addressing the youth faction of his party in March 2007, Mugabe threatened to kick out foreign diplomats if they dared to attend opposition meetings.

He also warned his political opponents bent on public protests: "If they do it again, we will bash them again," he said.

In my book, two factors favor Makoni for now.

In his landmark declaration he indicated a tolerance of opposing views, something very uncommon with the old guard in ZANU PF. Second, he admitted his party and leadership have failed the Zimbabwean people – a far cry from the ‘blame colonialism’ rhetoric that has characterized ZANU PF’s quest for power since independence.

Makoni said: “Let me confirm that I share the agony and anguish of all citizens, over the extreme hardships that we have all endured for nearly ten years now. I also share the widely held view that these hardships are a result of failure of national leadership and that change at that level is a pre requisite for change at other levels of national Endeavour”

The Makoni statement sounded like a declaration of a palace coup. It was the bravest thing anyone has ever said publicly from the ZANU PF camp for some time. In an instant it made up for the tragic and intolerant manner by which ZANU PF has handled the country’s politics for the past 28 years.

Attempting to predict what rescue options Makoni had in store for the Zimbabwean economy and politics was like tilting – a – whirl at the amusement park. Admittedly, he is immensely liked by a cross-section of constituencies in the country and the SADC region in particular, including the private sectors.

More reports on Zimbabwe from the Institute for War Reporting (Click here)

Should South Africa go nuclear?

2008-01-24T12:31:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

All images by google

The proverbial poop has hit the fan. On the back of a major electricity power shortage, the entire Southern African region potentially faces dark days ahead. Business and general day to day activities are affected.

South Africa’s power utility Eskom - the eleventh-largest electricity utility in the world is failing to meet the growing demand.

On January 21, Eskom brokered an agreement to cut power supplies to the biggest users, including mining companies BHP Billiton and Anglo American by as much as 15 percent. Industry noted that such compromises were a threat to economic growth and could result in the country witnessing a 25.5 percent job cut rate.

Eskom supplies about 95 per cent of the electricity consumed in South Africa and about 63 per cent of Africa’s electricity needs.

Nuclear power station built in the middle of Soweto, was used to power white homes, is now decomissioned.

The South African government says - in the long term, nuclear power is the most commercially viable, carbon-emission-free base-load technology. Media reports suggest government is considering a wide-ranging nuclear energy programme that could see a string of atom-powered electricity generators scattered throughout the country.

Seven sites have been identified for new nuclear reactors: from the Northern, Western and Eastern Cape, while Phelindaba in the North West Province has been offered nuclear enrichment facilities, nuclear fuel fabrication and nuclear smelter plants.

South Africa’s uranium deposits are now proclaimed a strategic reserve. Various areas around the country have been identified for uranium prospecting and mining, including vast tracts of the Karoo and Magaliesburg also in the North West Province.

Under this grandiose nuclear plan, Eskom proposes to install up to 24 Pebble-Bed Modular Reactors (PBMRs) all over the country and another 10 conventional Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs). One already exists in Koeberg, near Cape Town.

These interventions are expected to add thousands of megawatts over the short-term – reversing what potentially looks like dark days ahead.

But, the dark cloud offers other possibilities too, and most importantly a paradigm shift – a change in the way authorities are seeking to resolve the energy crisis.

Citizens want to have a say in energy policy formulation

South Africans, faced with the prospect of nuclear developments in their neighborhoods are demanding public participation in energy planning.

‘The Coalition Against Nuclear Energy’ (CANE) is now operational. The group is comprised of community organizations, residents' associations, NGOs, academics, professionals, unionists, environmentalists and ordinary citizens.

Most of these communities are concerned, among other things, about nuclear safety and the unsolved problem of long-term spent fuel storage. They worry about the costs of radioactive waste management, nuclear indemnity and other third-party liability insurances which often feature strongly in nuclear energy businesses worldwide.

What about solar energy?

The city of Cape Town has started utilizing solar power on its traffic lighting systems. The city administrators are going solar not because they've suddenly become concerned about global warming. They are going the solar route because it is cheaper and sustainable.

Jeff Siegelis, the managing editor of Green Chip Stocks, focused on the lucrative investments in the emerging "green" markets tells his clients. "As prices for coal, natural gas, oil and hydro-generated power soar, consumers are beginning to pay more attention to solar power. That's what's driving the boom in solar energy".

Keith Barnham, emeritus professor of physics at Imperial College London, has the data. He argues that more solar energy strikes the Earth in one hour than is consumed by all human activity in a year.

The sun produces an estimated 4 trillion watts of electricity every single hour. That is enough power to meet the entire world’s current energy needs.

According to Keith;“In the UK more than 60% of electricity is used in buildings. The solar energy falling on those buildings exceeds by more than seven times the energy consumed inside”.

Picture this: A solar roof and window on every home and business ensuring access to electric power. This is a competitive alternative to non-energy producing roof tiles and windows. Builders and manufacturers of building products already use roofing tiles. There are especially likely to be attracted to the economic benefits of using similar materials that produce energy while continuing to function as an actual roof.

Few power-generation technologies have as little impact on the environment as solar power. As it quietly generates electricity from light, no air pollution or hazardous waste is produced. It doesn't require liquid or gaseous fuels to be transported or combusted.

Yet, in taking the nuclear route, South Africa will have to contend with the possibility a nuclear mishaps such as the world witnessed at Chernobyl in Russia and Three Mile Island in the US. Keith considers it immoral that we should leave more than 10,000 generations to deal with the waste generated by three generations who will have consumed the world's exploitable uranium reserves. He ponders. “How will they know where the plutonium is buried?”

ANC policy: It’s in the emphasis

2007-12-24T13:28:00.000-08:00

All images by google

Author: Tula Dlamini

The 52nd ANC conference in Polokwane has come and gone. Thabo Mbeki, the country's president, lost to his ex-deputy, Jacob Zuma. The more than 4000 delegates chose Zuma to lead the ANC by more than 800 votes, while 15 government ministers aligned to Mbeki were flung off the new National Executive Committee. The ones that made it came in relatively low down on the list of 80 elected members.

It was not about the man. It was about the ball. Put differently; it was neither about Thabo Mbeki nor Jacob Zuma. Though structured by under-currents, it was a contestation of ideological outlooks – a contestation of policy views, tactics and strategy. And never mind the rhetoric. The ANC policy will undergo a radical shift in emphasis.

For most of his tenure as ANC party president, Mbeki had benefited from a virtuous cycle. His critique of the unregulated market system in favor of developmental state reinforced the notion that he was the ideal visionary to lead the ANC towards social transformation. To his allies, Mbeki’s acceptance to stand for a third term as ANC president represented his life long commitment to the movement.

But what turned Mbeki's night of joy into a morning of peril? It does seem he was oblivious to a number of under-currents and variables that would come to characterize deeper flaws in his campaign strategy.

Mbeki’s underestimation of Zuma and the Zulu prism

Zuma was perceived as a non-starter due to his tainted image arising from the rape trial - a charge for which he was eventually cleared by the courts.

Rare imagery: Zuma, wife - Dr. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and daughter (Pic: Courtesy of Rhodes University)

Discussing ethnicity is taboo inside the ANC. However, there are people who postulate that the anti- Zuma campaign is essentially an attack on the largest population group in the country, the Zulu ethnic group and by extension an attack on the Zulu monarchy.

I recall a private dinner with His Majesty King Goodwill Zwelithini at which he said to me, “I'm above party politics but to many people, Zuma is a Zulu first before he is ANC. Some people think a Zulu president is no good for South Africa”.

His Majesty suspected this sentiment was widespread. He lamented the fact that certain individuals, in their fight against Zuma, were manupulating ethnic sentiment for personal ends and that this was resulting in a siege mentality amongst the Zulu.

KwaZulu (Kwa meaning place of) is where Zuma was born. He still cherishes his Zulu traditional customs, embracing polygamy as a way of life and often subordinating himself to the monarchy during Zulu traditional ceremonies. His last port of call before the Polokwane conference was an audience with Zulu King Zwelithini.

The Zulu are a constituency worth acknowledging. They number approximately 11 million people and form the country's largest single ethnic group. Wikipedia notes aptly that both the immediate past (Jacob Zuma) and current (Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka) Deputy President of the country have been Zulu, in part to bolster the ANC's claim to be a pan-ethnic national party and refute the Zulu dominated Inkatha Freedom Party claims that the ANC was primarily a Xhosa party.

Zuma denies the percieved link between his plight and the fact that he is Zulu. He spent the most part of life as an anti-apartheid insurgent, rising to the position of MK’s chief of intelligence – the ANC military wing. Upon his return in the 1990s, he earned respect as a peacemaker, mediating between the ANC and the Zulu-dominated Inkatha Freedom Party – a conflict that left thousands dead. (Click here for Zuma video)

Free ride

Many of Mbeki's allies believe Zuma has gotten a free ride. In the build-up to the Polokwane conference, they attempted to sow doubt about Zuma by raising a slew of questions. These included public utterances about the suicide death of one of Zuma's wives, and the campaign's invocation of his rape trial statements. Vice President Phumzile Mlambo – a Mbeki ally used the public broadcaster SABC to ask if ANC delegates were willing to support a candidate with a questionable moral background, suggesting with Mbeki’s candidacy, women’s rights and morality were guaranteed. The NPA announced on Radio 702 that they had enough evidence to charge Zuma and Mbeki told a press conference that he saw nothing wrong with the NPA advances. Critics say Mbeki's endorsement of the NPA suggested a measure of panic.

The NPA allegations emanate from an arms procurement deal initially announced in 1998. The first phase of the deal involved the purchase of patrol corvettes, light helicopters, submarines, Hawk jet trainers and light fighter aircraft, from manufacturers in France, Britain, Italy, Germany and Sweden. Sources say within one year, the cost of the deal had skyrocketed from R29.9bn to R43bn (US5.5bn) — an increase of more than 42 percent. Zuma allegedly got no less than R4 million from this transaction. He denies this allegation and on 29 December 2007, the National Prosecution Agency issued an indictment for trial in the Pietermaritzburg High Court scheduled to commence on August 4, 2008.

Zuma's lawyer, Michael Hulley, said his client was charged with racketeering, money laundering, fraud and corruption. The NPA previously charged Zuma with receiving bribes from the French arms firm Thint. The case was dropped on technical grounds after a High Court appeal by Zuma but prosecutors reopened their investigation, this time lining 218 witnesses to testify against Zuma.

Some say Zuma is a scapegoat and that efforts to demonise him are likely to backfire. They argue that the core issue is that Mbeki's cabinet, under his leadership, opted to purchase military weapons a time when the country was not facing any threat of war. The deal was expected to generate 65,000 new jobs in South Africa. However, there is a body of thought that has suggested the money could have radically changed the face of South Africa’s primary education system with the effect of transforming the country’s skills base in the not so distant future.

The protest vote

And if Zuma, with his soaring and idealistic talk, has been more theme than pudding, he has nonetheless managed to hit a well-timed emotional peak. He has found an effective line of criticism against Mbeki with a passionate call for transformative change.

On the other hand, Mbeki has failed to link his arguments on the validity of his economic policies to more tangible outcomes. For example, he has failed to tame the overwhelming class struggle that is now characteristic of the ANC. One paper reported from the conference: “Inside the triple coils of razor wire protecting the delegates, fleets of sleek black Mercedes and BMW luxury sedans shuttled officials to and from the tents. Outside the wire, teenage goat-herders in ragged sneakers looked on in curiosity, before moving their bucktoothed charges off to feed amid raw shanty towns”. The author quoted one delegate as saying “I come from Mbeki's hometown, and it's still almost as poor as it was under apartheid", said Zibele Xula, who voted for Zuma. “Mbeki is making a rich middle class in the big cities. Fine, But he has forgotten about the poor masses in the countryside."

The service delivery protests that characterized more than 130 local municipalities nationally throughout 2006/7 put paid to Mbeki’s campaign for the third term. What these communities wanted were basic services at a time when the country’s budget was in a surplus. Failure to address these concerns promptly was the opportunity Mbeki wasted.

When the South African Institute of Race Relations (SAIRR), citing Global Insight Southern Africa (2006) reported that “the number of people living on less than US$1 per day (the measure of extreme poverty used by the World Bank) in South Africa, increased from 1,89 million in 1996 to 4,2 million in 2005, Mbeki cried foul and argued that this report differed dramatically from reports by various distinguished academics in the field.

I’m sure Mbeki was sincere in his disagreement and assuming he was off the mark, I would still grant him the benefit of an intellectual error – and not a deliberate charade to mislead. The brother is deeper than that. But I will here add that when I last visited Kwalujiko in the Eastern Cape not long ago, I left thinking the SAIRR report actually under-estimated the problem. To this day, I’m convinced that is perhaps the reason Mbeki lost the contest in the Eastern Cape to Zuma.

An ambivalence towards the ANC Alliance partners, particularly the Congress of Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party

This represented a dis-connect between Mbeki and the grass-root communities for the simple reason that more than 70% of South Africa’s wage earners are members of the ANC Alliance partners, the Congress of South Africa Trade Unions (COSATU) and the South Africa Communist Party (SACP). Studies have shown that through the extended family prism – wage earners support between 12 -18 dependents – be it in the high density townships, squatter camps or rural villages. This ‘working group’ thus structures the political consciousness of a very large constituency both within and outside the ANC branches in urban and rural areas. It was not strategic for Mbeki to push both COSATU and the SACP into an oppositional mode.

The youth factor

Once upon a time, Mbeki was popular amongst the youth. They called him 'bro T'. I still do. But I watched with disappointment in June 2007, Mbeki’s lengthy address in the Eastern Cape at a youth rally commemorating the 1976 Soweto massacres.

Left Pic: Who says Mbeki can't jump?

His spin-doctors should have advised him there was more to gain from his former tradition of dancing with the youth and at the very least warned him that young people have a very short attention span. It is always better to reach them via well orchestrated educational but savvy entertainment - something approximating Madiba's now popular 46664 worldwide music-led concerts aimed at raising global awareness about HIV/Aids and funds to fight the pandemic in Southern Africa. The concerts attract major international celebrities and corporations.

Right Pic:"Madiba does the cool and deadly Jive"

What youths need is inspiration and the image of a ‘school principal’ telling them to stop taking ellicit 'drugs' does not quite cut it, unless perhaps if you’re telling them how to access jobs and opportunity. Most crucially, you keep your speech short.

Allegations of a purge

Firing Jacob Zuma from the vice-presidency must have been a difficult decision. However, replacing him with Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, wife of Bulelani Ngcuka, the man who led the criminal investigations that caused Zuma to be fired left many South Africans ‘smelling a rat’.

Zuma’s sacking constituted what would latter be known in some circles as the ‘Mbeki purges’. Key securocrats were discharged (some honorably and others not).

Over time, discharged or suspended individuals included the likes of highly regarded former commander of the post-aparthied national army, General Simphiwe Nyanda (better known in the townships as the ‘people’s general), and the controversial spy masters Billy Masethla and Vusi Pikoli. Such decisions sent jitters to the former military wing of the ANC, Umkhonto We Sizwe - MK (Spear of the nation). And since these individuals had previously acted as a buffer zone for Mbeki - releasing them meant he had opened himself up to direct attacks from the unsuspected quarters, not to mention the usual opposition circles.

Then there was the forced resignation of popular former deputy minister of health, Ms Nosizwe Madlala- Routledge. Critics said Mbeki should have instead fired the boss, Health Minister Dr. Manto Tshabalala-Msimang. She had been condemned at home and abroad for her unorthodox views on the AIDS virus, which has infected an estimated 5.4 million South Africans the highest number for any country in the world. Archbishop Desmond Tutu, a Nobel laureate often regarded as the moral conscience of the nation, said in a speech quoted by CLARE NULLIS, an Associated Press Writer, that the Health Ministry "had presided over the vast deterioration in health standards of our land."

With some, Mbeki certainly earned a few brownies for not dismissing Tshabalala-Msimang, particularly after her much publicised liver transplant. There were elements within the ANC that saw in Mbeki; a symphathetic leader, who would not be swayed by ‘big media’. But, in the same vein, by dismissing Madlala – Routledge, an enthusiastic deputy minister, for the reasons offered, Mbeki had degenerated into a heavy handed, un-creative manager, whom some feared was turning into a 'monster'. Madlala - Routledge was unceremoniously dismissed allegedly for insurbonation and specifically for an unauthorized trip to an AIDS conference in Spain.

The December 2007 Polokwane conference re-elected both women to the ANC's National Executive Council but perhaps worth noting is that the disgraced Madlala-Routledge bounced back with a higher number of votes than her former boss, Tshabalala-Msimang.

For better or worse, there will be a radical shift in emphasis

At the level of policy, Mbeki’s critique of the “free market” system in favor of a ‘planned developmental economy’ which he had proposed at the June 2007 ANC conference in Midrand continues to resonate in and outside the ANC. He has also spoken in favor of a tough policy on gender equality, fiscal discipline, rule of law and morality. However, given that his opponents in the ANC Alliance share the same views, Mbeki’s line of campaign would perhaps have been more helpful in a general election campaign than within the ANC.

Both the ANC and its Alliance partners’ acknowledge the existence of economic disparities between the rich & poor, the attendant political dissatisfaction among the poor,and the patriarchal limitations of the ANC. However, they are not agreed on how to redress the identified anomalies – in fact there is discernable difference in emphasis.

For instance, whereas the Mbeki –led ANC is calling for greater infrastructural spending, slight increases in social grants, incremental increases in public-sector salaries, the Alliance – supported ANC backing Zuma’s candidacy is calling for greater state intervention in production structures including nationalization of land, mines, banks, petrochemicals, telecommunications, including price regulation.

Never mind the rhetoric, it’s in emphasis, stupid

The broad ANC policies may not change but the emphasis will. The propensity to intervene directly with governance is already written on the wall. An example of this is the decision by the ANC conference, now presided over by Zuma, to transfer 30% of land to the formally disadvantaged Africans by 2014.

Hardly a week after his appointment, Zuma sent a clear message indicating the ‘markets will no longer have a free reign’. He told the Sunday Independent newspaper he would look at inflation targeting, a key monetary policy tool adopted in 2000 by the Reserve Bank of South Africa to reign in inflation by increasing or decreasing rates. "…our main method of inflation targeting, which is hiking the interest rate, has resulted in complaints from both the top end of the financial spectrum as well as the bottom end." Zuma was quoted as saying.

If you think this is the end…sorry, it’s just the beginning. There will be more radical shifts – not just in economic policy but in international relations as well. And singing the song ‘Libambeni lingatshoni’ (stop the sun from setting), particularly in the face of Zuma’s theme song ‘Lethu ‘mshini wami’ (bring my machine gun) will not address the under-currents. The broader population within the country will continue to demand participatory democracy. Hopefully it will be in a manner that does not stifle nor demonize individual initiative. South Africa needs economic growth and justice to benefit all. (Click for video analysis of Zuma win)

Onward!!

Daggers drawn at the African National Congress Conference

2007-12-04T00:48:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

Image by Google - Jacob Zuma (left) and Thabo Mbeki (right)

The African National Congress (ANC) is the oldest liberation movement in Africa since 1912. The party will hold its 52nd National Conference in December 2007 at Polokwane, South Africa. Analysts describe the meeting as the 'battle for the soul of the ANC'. President Thabo Mbeki will contests the party's top position against his ex-deputy Jacob Zuma.

Mbeki sacked Zuma in 2005 after he was implicated in a corruption case. Zuma and his supporters claim there is a political witch hunt driven by Mbeki's allies.

But there is more than meets the eye. The ANC's five-yearly conferences are primarily about policy-formulating and election of the party's leadership is only seen as a climax of the ideological contestations at these meetings – in fact an indication of how the ANC intends running Africa biggest economy.

What are the issues?

So far – the ANC's draft resolutions are epitomized by a critique of the "free market" in favor of a "planned developmental economy" proposed by Mbeki at the June 2007 ANC conference in Midrand.

The Communist Party and the Trade Unions has articulated similar proposals but in all cases there is marked difference in emphasis. While the ANC and its Alliance partners' acknowledge the existence of economic disparities between the rich & poor and the attendant political dissatisfaction among the poor, they are not agreed on how to redress the identified anomalies.

For instance, whereas the Mbeki –led ANC is calling for greater infrastructural spending, slight increases in social grants, incremental increases in public-sector salaries, the Alliance – led ANC that is backing Zuma's candidacy is calling for greater state intervention in production structures including nationalization of land, mines, banks, petrochemicals, telecommunications, including price regulation.

Notably, both the ANC and the Alliance are silent on issues pertaining to curbing sexism, homophobia, xenophobia, racism and ethnic discrimination.

What if Zuma wins?

If Zuma is elected at the December 16 to 20 policy meeting, he has indicated readiness to become South Africa's next president in elections due in 2009. But what does the Zuma presidency mean for South Africa?

Analysts say Zuma, who portrays himself as a friend of the common people, and is supported by South Africa's powerful trade unions will bring social cohesion necessary to bring stability to a country where service delivery protests, wage strikes and other forms of protestations are the norm. They say social cohesion on the ground is what is needed to trigger investor confidence and to grow the economy.

But the anti-Zuma camp says – unlike Mbeki who holds a Masters Degree in Economics from Sussex University in London, Zuma's lack of formal education imposes limitations on his aptitude to understand the complexity of global economics – an ideal qualification for would-be South Africa's President. They say – social cohesion is only sustainable when you have substantive economic growth and hence the need for a technocrat to preside over such desired growth.

However, in an apparent 'vote of protest' against Mbeki, more than 70% of the electorate from the ANC alliance partners in the SA Communist Party and Congress of South Africa Trade Union movement, the Youth and Women leagues, plus 5 out 9 provinces, think a Zuma - led ANC will engender increased democratic space and social transformation.

What is worrying is that this anti-Thabo Mbeki challenge is not necessarily informed by a pragmatic economic policy – though inevitably will structure the politics in SA. There is no substantive conversation at the lower ranks of the ANC membership around the structural constraints imposed by the Mbeki espoused economic policy framework. The talk is about the 'great leader'. Small wonder - as the ANC marches towards the Polokwane Conference, the only game in town borders on conspiracy theories and un-critical hype centred around the annointed messiahs - 'Mbeki and Zuma'.

Continental Government for Africa closer than before

2007-08-08T13:12:00.000-07:00

By Tula Dlamini

African leaders attending the 8th AU Summit in July 2007, in Accra, Ghana agreed to speed up the economic and political integration of the continent. But they also agreed to study how a continental union under a single government would affect national sovereignties and existing regional economic blocs.

The battle lines were evident. Some leaders wanted to set up a continental African government immediately, and others favoured a more gradual, step-by-step approach.

The decision for more study reflected the cautious appraisal by leaders like South African President Thabo Mbeki, who had recommended strengthening existing regional economic communities before any setting up of a continental union and government. According to one delegate, Mbeki told his peers in Addis Ababa that "before you put a roof on a house, you need to build the foundations".

South Africa's position on the issue was buttressed by President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua of Nigeria.

Yar'Adua in a speech delivered 2 July 2007 at the Summit said Nigeria has always supported the principle of "full and political integration leading to the evolvement of a United States of Africa." He observed, however, that the critical issue before the assembly was the question of whether to fast-track the process or to pursue the same objective through "gradual incrementalism".

"Our perspective is mediated by the critical need at this point in our continent's developmental process, for the nations of Africa to focus more on the strengthening and consolidation of internal governance and growth structures, and on more robust regional integration", he said.

"Focus on inter-regional collaboration is equally critical especially considering that all the five regions of Africa face essentially the same challenges of poor infrastructure, inadequate energy, endemic poverty, and the twin bane of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis," President Yar'Adua told the gathering of African leaders in the Ghanaian capital.

Yar'Adua said the "critical importance" of a "definitive" identification and clarification of "the vital institutional and operational challenges" which is the concept of Union Government in Africa has strengthened the case for a gradualist approach.

"Dear colleagues, there are clear and present threats and challenges which we must face up to. We cannot ignore the social, economic, and political inequalities within and among our member States, which if not bridged, would pose daunting obstacles on the march towards viable political and economic union.

"Conversely, these issues, along with the challenges of conflict, disease and poverty, drive the imperative for us to present a united and common front in the global arena. There is strength in the synergy that is only possible from functional unity.

"We must recommit in practical terms to those principles that initially drove the birthing of the AU. We must stay focused on forging common standards of political and economic governance, and create enabling factors that will connect our peoples, enhancing the free movement of people, goods and services within and among our nations.

"In this regard, continental infrastructure such as transportation, communication, and power, as well as common agricultural, education, migration, and other policies are fundamental," Yar'Adua told his fellow heads of state and government.

But the decision to take six more months to study the implications and timing of the proposed creation of a continental government was a setback, particularly for two leaders, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi and Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade. Arguing that Africa needed to speak and act as one in a globalised world, they had publicly advocated the immediate formation of a continental government.

A number of African countries, including Zimbabwe, supported this position.

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe said unity was vital to make the continent truly independent of the West.

"We need to take the bull by the horns and move towards a new country, Africa," said AU Commission Chairman Alpha Oumar Konare said on 1 July 2007, adding that "political integration will give... more clout and bargaining power when negotiating with other blocs."

"We have the Pan-African Parliament and the African Court of Justice," noted Konare. But, "These structures lack power: they are not effective structures. A union government will give them teeth."

The parliament, which has an advisory role was set up in 2004, in part to promote good governance and democracy across the continent. Legislative powers are envisaged by 2009.

While a protocol establishing the African Court of Justice is in place, it can only come into effect after ratification by all AU member states. To date, just a handful have done so.

The summit host, Ghanaian President John Kufuor, sought to play down the divisions that had emerged at the July 2007 AU Summit in Accra.

"The debate has not been about winners and losers, a majority or a minority, the 'instantists' or the 'gradualists'," he said in his closing remarks.

"We emerge with a common vision in principle for the realisation of a union government. We all have a shared vision of a united, vibrant continental union," said Kufuor.

Kufuor noted that Africa is the second largest continent in the world and also second to none in terms of natural resources, but in spite of all the potentials "it has been described in many unsavoury terms including the 'last frontier for economic and social development' and a 'scar on the conscience of humanity'".

He mentioned colonialism, slavery, imperialism and wild diversity of cultures among the litany of factors which have combined to slow the continent's advancement.

Kufuor said illiteracy and poverty, famine and diseases, ethnic and religious intolerance and border tensions generated by artificially imposed colonial boundaries have also contributed to Africa's woes, "but perhaps the worst of all the causes of Africa's dysfunction were the unwarranted external interventions and geo-political manipulations".

Kufuor observed that though Africa's pioneering leaders through the mechanism of the OAU had succeeded in shaking off imperialism, colonialism and apartheid, they were confronted with looming mountains of economic and social challenges which dogged their developmental efforts.

Kufuor conceded that decades of bad governance and impunity had contributed immensely to Africa's under-development. "That is why the current crop of leaders of Africa decided to create the African Union and also adopt the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD)".

He said with passage of the Constitutive Act of the AU in 1999 and the adoption of NEPAD by the AU in 2003, " the immediate challenge to the realization of the goal becomes political will and institutional development".

Kufuor observed that Africa could be running against time in its efforts at integration, especially in the light of global developments including the formation of political and economic groupings on other continents.

He threw the challenge to his colleague Heads of State to sincerely commit to implementing protocols dedicated to the integration programmes, which include the free movement of people and goods, the establishment of customs unions, common currencies and markets, and the harmonization of the security policies and programmes.

Kufuor, noted that the views of citizens should be sought on the matter of an AU government, and also that stronger regional groupings were required for such an authority to take shape.

A lack of free movement of people and goods in the various regions has slowed integration. Statistics from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa indicate, for instance, that regional trade in the Economic Community of West Africa States is a quarter of the bloc's trade with Europe.

The call for free movement of people was echoed by activists present at the summit.
"We call on our excellencies to remove all visa requirements for African citizens to travel across the continent as a first step towards a protocol that enshrines the right to residence, work and movement. Without continental citizenship, continental government is meaningless," said a communiqué issued by about 150 civil society organisations drawn from 30 African countries.

At the 7th Session of the AU Assembly in Banjul in July 2006, the Assembly suggested that such an administration could be in place by 2015, fulfilling an aspiration that dates back to the founding of the union's predecessor, the OAU.

The AU Council of Ministers are expected to consider a "road map" and timeframe for the construction of a 'continental government' of Africa that would be included in its report to be presented to the next summit of the 53-nation AU in January 2008.

Overview on the Grand Debate on the Union Government

2007-06-13T02:53:00.000-07:00

Compiled by Tula Dlamini

Introduction
The 9th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union will take place in Accra, Ghana on 25 June – 3 July 2007.

The Assembly will debate the proposed 'continental government for Africa'.

In attendance will be Heads of State and Government of Member States of the African Union, as well as their Foreign Ministers, other ministers, Permanent Representatives at the AU, invited dignitaries and Commissioners of the AU

The Assembly meeting of July 2005 in Sirte affirmed that the ultimate goal of the African Union is full political and economic integration leading to the United States of Africa.

At the 7th Session of the Assembly in Banjul in July 2006, the Assembly again reiterated this goal.

Towards a continental Africa

Two important meetings that will fundamentally structure Africa's continental politics took place in May 2007. Both meetings took place in South Africa; one in Durban and the other in Midrand, near Pretoria.

The former is a meeting of the Executive Council of the African Union, which consists of all the Foreign Affairs Ministers of the 53 Member states. The latter is the 7th Session of the Pan African Parliament.

Both meetings brainstormed on the state of the Union with the view of tabling recommendations to the 9th AU Summit in July 2007.

Significance
On the one hand, the Foreign Ministers met to agree on their final recommendations on the agenda for the forthcoming summit of Heads of State and Governments of the Union in July 2007 in Accra, Ghana.

In addition to other items on the agenda, the Pan-African Parliament also had its only chance to discuss and pronounce itself on matters before the summit.

There is no longer a debate about the desirability of a full integration of Africa. The widely held view is that the powerlessness of most of African states, marginalization in global trade and finance has meant disagreements are now reduced to “how far and how fast to travel the road to unity”.

What are the different positions?
Dr. Tajudeen Abdul Raheem is at the helm of the UN Millennium Goals campaign. A political scientist and activists by background, he posits three notable constituencies. The first group is led by Libyan Leader Muammar Gaddafi, who has been the driving force behind the fast tracking of the United States of Africa project since 1999. According to Raheem, this group wants the immediate union of the states with one government, a common citizenship, a common defence, a standing Army, a Foreign Minister and a President for Africa.

The second group is identified as states opposed to what they consider to be Libya’s haste, and argue for gradual integration through consolidation of existing regional economic communities as the key building blocs of the Union. “Initially they did not have a clear leader, since most of them could not withstand the roller coaster diplomatic, political and economic pressures from Tripoli, but carried out their anti-Libya manoeuvres through bureaucrats, ambassadors, foreign ministers and the committee systems at which Libya’s proposals are watered down and bogged down in procedural politics”, Raheem notes.

A third constituency consists of those states who share many of the concerns of the cautious path of the second group. This group is calling for the strengthening of the AU, argues that there is enough in its Act of Union, enough authority and consensus, to fast-track unity. This group wishes to consolidate the AU before going further. “This ‘AU is enough’ is now led effectively by President Thabo Mbeki and Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi”.

Raheem adds that other important key players like Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria are basically either standing on the fence or trying to hold a dubious half-way house between Gaddafi’s enthusiasm and Mbeki’s cynicism. “Other countries are hiding their indecision, ambiguities, hostilities or biases behind the protagonists. But this is an issue that cannot be fudged anymore”, Raheem concludes.

The Durban meeting of Foreign Ministers is seen by Raheem as basically Thabo Mbeki’s fight back on the road to Accra, juxtaposing his vision directly to Gaddafi’s. The school of thought argues that already even the ways in which the South Africans have tabled the matter have made this clear. Instead of the official United States of Africa, they talk of an African Union Government.

PAP position on the continental government

The Pan African Parliament’s (PAP) Seventh Ordinary Session ended on 18 May 2007 with parliamentarians debating and adopting one recommendation from the Committee on Cooperation, International Relations and Conflict Resolution on the Union Government of Africa.

The recommendation called for the transformation of PAP into a legislative organ. It called on the AU to set a realistic calendar for the evolution of the AU towards the creation of a Union Government.

The recommendation also called on the AU to re-double its effort in order to accelerate the establishment and the strengthening of existing institutions, and also to accelerate the process of rationalising and harmonising the AU institutions and the Regional Economic Communities.

It further called upon the African political leaders to show their political will to move towards the Union Government by paying their countries contributions to the AU’s budget.

The PAP also called on the AU to clarify the type of Union Government it has in mind, but at the same time suggested the federal type union. It suggested that the nomenclature “United States of Africa - USA” be replaced by another which better reflects the history of the continent.

It also called on the AU to encourage and promote the full participation of all peoples of Africa in the debate and the process towards the creation of a Union Government. It recommended that NEPAD and the APRM and other similar institutions be incorporated as institutions of the future Union Government with some level of autonomy.

The idea of a Union Government of Africa was first muted in 1924 by a pan africanist native of Trinidard, Marcus Garvey. Since then many initiatives have been taken with the aim of realizing the ideals of unity, justice, peace and development for the continent.

The PAP debate on the formation of “A Union Government of Africa: United States of Africa” had provoked intense debate with some parliamentarians arguing that it would be unrealistic to come up with a Union Government of Africa by 2015, as proposed, when sub-regional integration is still facing many obstacles.

But, other Members of Parliament felt that the issue must be tackled with courage and determination and that the 53 States of the African Union could not develop themselves in isolation.

Ghana’s MP, Malik Al-Hassan Yakubu presented the report of the Committee on Cooperation, International Relations and Conflict Resolutions which suggested that a united Africa is a dream to every African, though seeing it come true, it calls for strong political will on the part of the African leaders.

It said that Regional and National Parliaments have to carry out detailed studies through sharing the contents, evaluation of external influences and interferences on the proliferation of conflicts and development in Africa.

The report went on to make fourteen recommendations to PAP. These included the following:

• The AU has to clarify the type of Union Government envisaged
• The AU Assembly should avoid adopting the name “United States of Africa” since the acronym (USA) already exists and the name chosen should have strategic significance for the Union
• It will be necessary to establish a realistic timeframe to facilitate the evolutionary process of the AU towards the creation of the Union Government of Africa, and that it be approved at the forthcoming AU summit scheduled for Ghana in July 2007
• All measures are taken to encourage and promote inclusive participation of the African peoples in the debate and processes towards the creation of the UGA
• The Assembly initiates the process to review all AU instruments especially the Constitutive Act of the AU and the PAP Protocol in order to fast-track the transition of PAP to a full legislative body
• The process will have to harmonise the structures and their mandates.
• Members of the Pan African Parliament presented diverse views on the issue of establishing a continental government for Africa.

Almost half of the 64 members, who were given the floor to make their submissions, were doubtful on the issue; others were strongly in favour of the establishment of a one government for the African continent.

It became necessary for the House to debate the issue after the Assembly of the African Union (AU) Heads of State meeting in Addis Ababa in 2006 asked the House to adopt a position on the issue of the Union Government of Africa.

The debate included the outcome of two activities organized by the Committee in collaboration with the Institute for Security Studies on the subject. If adopted, the Union Government of Africa would be expected to be in place by the year 2015.

Those in favour of the establishment argued that African countries cannot develop themselves and overcome their problems in isolation. The main concern of the Members of the House, who were doubtful on the realisation of such a goal and therefore opposed its establishment, was that most African countries were not ready to form such a government as they have not been able to unite nationally.

According to some of them, establishing a union government was like “creating a united problem for Africa”. They were also of the view that what the people of Africa needed at the moment was not a union government but rather peace, stability, food security and good health care to thrive on the African continent.

Members of the House who were in favour of the motion said the proposal was good and that the issue of the Union Government of Africa before it can be realised must be tackled with courage and determination. According to them the establishment of one government for Africa was necessary as one could not speak of the Pan-African Parliament as a legislative organ without speaking of the Union Government of Africa, which according to them was an executive as well as a judicial organ.

In contribution to the debate, Botswana Member of Parliament Hon. Kokorwe Gladys Keitumetse, expressed concern at the timing proposed for the formation of the UGA, when currently most member states were facing serious economic challenges. “Let us first put out the fire. There is need to first extinguish the fire, that is, current conflicts we have in Africa. I will not be able to surrender my country (Botswana),” she said.

Diop Khalidou of Mauritania said it was imperative that the AU starts by examining the situations in member states as it will be difficult to aspire to the proposal of the UGA in 2015, considering the challenges that most countries are facing such as lack of democracy, and poor governance. “Africa is seriously sick with conflicts, lack of economic development, lack of democracy and poor governance. In the face of these painful situations that we are in, it will be difficult to attain to the aspirations of the formation of Union Government of Africa”, he said.

Economic Commission for Africa's recommendations for Regional Integration in Africa

Nancy Hull, a tralac intern, comments on the (ECA) Economic Commission for Africa's recommendations for Regional Integration in Africa. She reviews the various options highlighted in the ECA's May 2006 publication, Assessing Regional Integration in Africa II, in which the ECA offers five scenarios for rationalization of overlapping REC membership in Africa.

Of these possibilities, Nancy notes that, ECA regards "maintaining the status quo" as the weakest option and "rationalizing by merger and absorption" as impossible under existing circumstances.

A midpoint approach, "rationalizing around rooted communities," proposes an overarching regional community to deal exclusively with the African Union (AU) and regional integration while the existing Regional Economic Communities (REC) continue work on local issues.

ECA also suggests "rationalization through division of labour," which capitalizes on economies of scale by encouraging RECs to adopt programmes beneficial to all members while sub-regional organizations carry out programmes with more limited interests.

Finally, ECA recommends "rationalizing through harmonization of policies and instruments" in order to eliminate duplication among RECs. In this version, RECs must cooperate to set a single plan for achieving the African Common Market.
These scenarios raise the following question: Given the various advantages, disadvantages and difficulties inherent in implementing any form of rationalization, which method is most appropriate in order to eliminate the overlapping and duplicative programmes that currently hinder regional integration?"

SADC and COMESA move closer on trade deals
Three African trade blocs from southern and East Africa are moving closer to align and harmonise trade rules for increased integration.

The fifth meeting of the Joint Task Force (JTF) was held in May 2007 in Zanzibar and was attended by delegates of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Topics discussed were a joint approach to implement regional telecommunications networks based on the COMESA Comtel Project, the SADC Regional Information Infrastructure (SRII) Project as well as a harmonised approach to the implementation of the Nepad Broadband East African Submarine Cable (EASSY), which will facilitate connectivity with North Africa, the Oceanic Islands and the rest of the world.

The meeting agreed to hold a joint summit of all COMESA, EAC and SADC member states in due course to accelerate trade, customs and infrastructure development.

Also in May 2007, COMESA announced the establishment of common external tariffs and will declare a Customs Union in 2008.

SADC, of which Namibia is a member, will become a Free Trade Area (FTA) in 2008 and a Customs Union in 2010. The East African Community already declared a Customs Union in 2005 while SACU membership will incorporate the remaining SADC countries by 2010.

What is it that can be expected from the continental government?

In spite of the intrigues and manoeuvres by the various camps in the continental government project, scholars have identified basic weaknesses shared by the current protagonists in debate. Raheem notes the lack of citizen participation as a major obstacle to unity projects.

According to Raheem, "they are state-led and are projecting this vision without the involvement of the broad masses of their own peoples. They do not even involve their own parliaments, let alone ordinary citizens. In many cases it is only the Presidency that is involved, with Foreign Affairs Ministers playing guessing games. There is enough of agreements, protocols and statutory instruments to fast track the unity project. What has been lacking is the political will by the leaders to put their money where their mouth is and also fully involve the masses. Without both, the grand debate will only be another sham executive posturing, which drive our peoples into inertia and cynicism".

Raheem adds that, "it is not too late to reverse these wagon-less executive trains threatening to run into each other from Tripoli to Pretoria. The business of unity is too important to be left to Thabo and Gaddafi, even too important to be left to the 53 heads of state and government: the peoples of Africa must have full say in it".

Raheem says; "gone are the days when the summits used to be dominated by largely 'special invitations', 'special guests' chosen at the whims and caprices of the bureaucrats of the AU who were generally more disposed to welcoming all kinds of foreigners but fearful of 'troublemakers' from Africa!"

Clearly, many want to have some access and opportunity to engage with the AU, but as Raheem argues “The lack of engagement by broader social movements and popular forces has been traditionally due to continuing perception that the AU is essentially a leaders' forum and since many of them have gripes against their national leaders they are suspicious of the Pan-Africanist credentials of these leaders".

Sources: Dr. Tajudeen Abdul Raheem (Thursday Post Card); Pan African Parliament Secretariat; African Union Secretariat; Tralac ; Comesa Secretariat; SADC secretariat

Africa opts for peer scrunity

2006-12-15T06:23:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini

Twenty-four countries in Africa have submitted themselves to peer scrutiny on issues of democracy, economic governance and socio-economic development.

Countries that submit to self-assessment are expected to produce and implement a programme of action based on the self-assessment reports and also monitor and report on progress every three to five years.

The following countries acceded to the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM):Algeria, Angola, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mali, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Uganda.

What has happened so far?

Three countries presented their self-assessment reports to the 6th PAP session, namely; Ghana, Kenya and Rwanda.

Ghana

Ghana was the first African country to successfully complete the five stages of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM).

African heads of states, members of the APRM Forum, conducted the peer review of Ghana on 22 January 2006 on the sidelines of the AU summit in Khartoum. They assessed the country's political, economic and corporate governance, as well as socioeconomic development based on the final review report.

The final review report submitted to the leaders listed capacity constraints, gender disparity, corruption, lack of decentralization and land issues as the main governance concerns in Ghana. Other problems included chieftaincy, unemployment, external dependence, and brain drain.

But the report also identified several best practices in Ghana worthy of emulation by other countries, including success in consolidating democracy. It noted there had been three successful elections and transfers of power since 1996, as well as unique institutions for stakeholder dialogue such as an Annual Governance Forum, the People's Assembly, and National Economic Dialogue. The report also commended Ghana's contribution to regional peacekeeping.

In response to the issues raised in the report, Ghana has prepared a $5 billion and time-bound programme of action, dealing with each of the issues raised, as well as monitoring and evaluation processes.

In the area of fighting corruption, the government of Ghana said it had taken a number of measures including repealing the libel law to make it easier for news media to expose corruption, enacting the anticorruption act, and conducting civic education. Ghana also launched a Local Government Institute aimed at building capacity in local governance.

Rwanda

On the 9th of March 2003, Rwanda became the second after Ghana to accede to APRM, a move that was widely welcomed by the country's development partners.

Rwanda presented results of its peer review to the 6th Session of PAP, which centered on the recognition that good governance was paramount for sustainable peace and security and for development take place.

The government said it planned to spend $95 million on programmes geared towards streamlining governance gaps. The money will facilitate efforts to improve governance gaps in the areas that include legislation, health, education, corporate governance and capacity building among others in different areas identified in the Programme of Action contained in the final APRM report.

Some best practices identified in Rwanda’s report include areas of health, education, country ownership and broad based participation in development programs, managing diversity and promoting gender equity among others.

Gaps identified were in the financial sector, in employment policy, energy, housing, agriculture, environment and land use, education, science and technology, justice and security among others.

The 6th Session of PAP applauded Rwanda for being among the first three countries to undergo peer review and for her home grown solutions to governance challenges. Rwanda's development partners pledged their support to the implementation the APRM Program of action to cover the identified gaps in the report.

Kenya

Kenya voluntarily acceded to the APRM in March 2003 in Abuja, Nigeria. Thereafter, the country constituted an Inter-Ministerial Task Force led by the Ministry of Planning and National Development, the ministry responsible for NEPAD projects and the Focal Point for the APRM Process in Kenya to map out a strategy for the implementation of the APRM.

Four reputable Nairobi-based local Technical Research Institutions (TRIs) were selected to lead the review process. Kenya submitted its self-assessment report and a draft national programme of action in August 2005.

An 18-member Country Review Team (CRT) visited Kenya from 3-14 October 2005 to conduct the country review mission. The mission interacted with a diverse range of stakeholders and notes the visible commitment of Kenya’s citizenry and leadership to the institutionalisation of democracy in the country.

The TRIs chosen to undertake the exercise were research institutions who utilized methodology comprising desk research; national sample surveys; focal group discussions targeting special groups; and expert panel opinion.

Detailed results of the findings were presented indicating strengths and challenges in governance and socio-economic development in Kenya.

Strengths

A well-developed human resource base that is well engaged in development activities, highly motivated and outspoken on public affairs;

A vibrant and diverse civil society including religious bodies, NGOs and media;

Numerous credible and well-renowned institutions including the University of Nairobi, Business and Research associations and the Nairobi Stock Exchange;

A political environment that allows for open political debate;

A resilient economy that is less dependent on donors than in many other African countries;
An established decentralised funding mechanism for local development;

Hospitality towards refugees and migrants that has manifested itself for many decades;
A relatively stable country;

The vibrancy of the media, both print and electronic;

A vibrant agricultural export sector, especially for horticulture; and the
Adoption and ratification of numerous codes of corporate governance and socio-economic development.

Challenges:

An inability to address the colonial legacy, and the need to set a political agenda for real and strong national unity;

Historical imbalances in the channelling of resources and development programmes to certain regions in Kenya, which has perpetuated regional and ethnic inequalities;

The delay in promulgating a new constitution in spite of the Boma draft being the product of the most extensive constitutional consultations in Africa’s history;

The absence of broad-based and inclusive political parties, cutting across the racial and ethnic divides and anchored on a truly national agenda;

The lack of confidence and trust in public institutions coupled with pervasive corruption despite the substantive legal and institutional frameworks instituted to curtail it;

The high incidence of poverty and pervasive unemployment, especially for youth;

The under-representation of women in key positions of leadership at all tiers of government and the private sector;

The lack of efficient public sector service delivery and enforcement mechanisms as well as the weak implementation of policies and programmes;

The ineffectiveness of the Parliamentary Oversight Committees;

The limited access to finance for small business; and the low probability of meeting Millenium Development Goals (MDGs)with the exception of universal primary education and fall in HIV/AIDS rates.

Key issues for review are as follows:

Managing diversity in nation building;

Constitutional reform and consensus building;
Political parties and national agenda;
Corruption;

Implementation gaps;

Effectiveness of Parliament (low productivity and narrow party/national interest);

Lack of confidence and thrust in public institutions;

Land ownership and reform;

Under-representation of women:

Enhancing the investigative capacity of the Judiciary; and Transformative leadership.

Some Best Practices

Kenya’s role in pacifying her neighbours and resolving various conflicts;

Political and civil rights are exercised with a considerable degree of freedom;

Production and exports of horticultural products;

Domestic resource mobilization;

The recent initial public offer of KenGen, the state power company;

Promotion of decentralization with the devolution of several funds to local authorities;

A very commendable free and universal primary education policy;

and Reduction of the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS from 13 percent to 7 percent between 1999 and 2004.

Kenya’s Response to the Country Review Report

Kenya organized a high profile Cabinet retreat and has responded to the Country Review Report. The country says it welcomes most of the recommendations of the Panel.

The Country has also prepared a detailed Programme of Action (POA) which includes time bound commitments on key governance and socio-economic challenges over the next three years. In fact, the country response indicates that Kenya has started to implement the POA.

Most of the funding to implement the recommendations will be generated within the country.

Background:

APRM is a voluntary mechanism open to all member of the African Union and designed to improve governance on the continent.

It commits countries to opening themselves for inspection by a team of governance experts - this to determine whether they have conformed to principles laid out in the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD).

These include observing the rule of law, and respecting human and property rights.

Kabila wins DRC's run-off presidential election

2006-11-02T06:50:00.000-08:00

By Tula Dlamini - Image by Google

On the 15th of November, 2006, Democratic Republic of Congo's Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)declared Joseph Kabila winner of a run-off presidential poll.

Kabila's only opponent in the run-off was Bemba, a former rebel chief who served as vice-president in the DRC transitional government since the 2002 peace deal.

Kabila, the incumbent, won 58.05 percent of the vote and his challenger, Bemba, 41.95 percent.

The European Union sent 1 400 troops to Kinshasa for the vote, bringing the total of UN peacekeepers to 17,000, with a second force on standby in neighbouring Gabon. Military experts described the peacekeeping mission in the DRC as the largest in the world.

The election divided the country along regional lines. On one hand, Kabila had strong support in the east, where a war was fought. He was viewed as having calmed the conflict through a 2002 peace agreement that brought Bemba into the government. On the other hand, while Bemba was widely regarded in the east as a warlord with a lot of blood on his hands, in Kinshasa, he was viewed as a legitimate local leader who had distinguished himself in business and who, unlike Kabila, spoke the local Lingala language well.

Bemba said he would accept the result provided the election and count was "transparent". However his officials accused the president of unfair practices, citing Kabila's domination of state radio and television. Bemba's television studios in Kinshasa were burnt down in the run-up to the election.

None of the parties in the July 2006 elections, which were held together with the first round of presidential elections, won an outright majority of the 500-seat parliament. However, the main party of Kabila, the biggest winner with 115 seats, formed an alliance with several others and together claimed a majority.

The initial round of elections unfolded in relative peace in July, with minor pockets of violence and intimidation, but electoral experts said disorder and chaos did creep into the tallying - raising questions about the fairness of the outcome. Several candidates alleged fraud. However, the overall impression from international observer missions, including those from the Carter Center, the European Union and South Africa was that elections were peaceful, transparent, credible and well managed.

The first national assembly to be democratically elected in the Democratic Republic of Congo was inaugurated on the 25th of September 2006.

The new body replaced the transitional parliament created by the 2002 peace agreement between the various armed groups in the country and was seen as an important step in cementing the peace process.

The second round of the presidential elections coincided with legislative polls for provincial governments.

DRC PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS - THE RUN-OFF POLL

Joseph Kabila: 58.05%
Jean-Pierre Bemba: 41.95%
Election results source: CEI

DRC on course to new political dispensation

2006-09-29T08:53:00.000-07:00

By Juakali Kambale

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) peace process is firmly on the path towards a new political dispensation, with one foot already in the doorway following the historic 22 September inauguration of the parliament.

The goalposts are already in sight, marking the final stages of a peace process inaugurated in Sun City, South Africa, in December 2002.

With a presidential run-off set for 29 October the Congolese are keeping their fingers crossed as the two presidential candidates try to fortify their support ahead of “the final match”.

Incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, faces the run-off against Jean-Pierre Bemba after they both failed to garner enough votes to beat a 50-plus-one-percent constitutional requirement for one to be declared winner of the presidential election.

Kabila won 44.81 percent of the vote, while Bemba had 20.03 percent.

Kabila’s prospects in the run-off have brightened after two former adversaries in the 30 July polls – Antoine Gizenga and Nzanga Mobutu – urged their supporters to rally behind the 35-year-old DRC leader.

Gizenga came third in the first round, with 13 percent of the vote, while Mobutu was fourth.

Mobutu is son of former president Mobutu Sese Seko who was ironically overthrown by Kabila’s father, Laurent, in 1997.

On the other end, Bemba is wooing support from other presidential candidates. On 23 September he celebrated the establishment of a new political coalition called Union for the Nation (UN).

The UN is an alliance of 15 of the 33 presidential candidates who contested the first round, including the four women candidates.

Those rallying behind Bemba include former transportation minister, Joseph Olengankoy; Gerard Kamanda wa Kamanda, current minister of scientific research; and Vincent Lunda Bululu, former prime minister under Mobutu regime.

The four women are Catherine Nzuzi wa Mbombo leader of former Mobutu’s party, the Popular Movement for the Revolution (MPR); Justine Kasavubu; and sisters Wivine N’landu and Marie-José N’landu.

The veteran opposition leader Etienne Tshisekedi, who boycotted the July elections and threatened to derail the election, is likely to join the Bemba’s coalition.

“We have not signed the agreement yet but as the nation is facing a real danger, we will analyse the situation and find out what can possibly be done,” said Jean-Baptiste Bomanza, Tshisekedi’s communication officer.

The key challenge as the run-off date draws nears is, however, how to ensure security in the capital city, Kinshasa.

Heavy fighting has previously erupted between troops loyal to Kabila and Bemba as results of the first round were being announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).

The IEC has already announced the arrival in Kinshasa of electoral kits. About 60 000 voting centres will be opened throughout the country.

The second round of the presidential elections will coincide with legislative polls for provincial governments.

According to the new constitution, DRC will be divided in 26 provinces with autonomous governments and parliaments.

Administratively, the country is decentralized in order to be better managed. Each province should keep 40 percent of local income to finance development projects.

The inauguration of the new parliament on 22 September constituted a very important step in the DRC peace process. 500 candidates were elected out of 9000.

“It was very tough and tiring,” said Marc Sumbusu, a newly elected member of parliament from Butembo, North Kivu province in eastern DRC.

The electoral operation itself was a huge success considering the size of the country and the lack of infrastructure.

The United Nations mission in the DRC and the South Africa government provided the necessary logistical support comprising air transportation and the printing of ballot papers. The European Union provided about US$500 million to ensure the smooth running of the polls.

The new parliament replaces the transitional parliament created by the 2002 peace agreement between the various armed groups in the country.

A disappointment, though, is the low representation of women in the new parliament. There are only 42 women out of 500 legislators, which translates to about 8.4 percent.

A noticeable feature of the new parliament is the overwhelming majority of Kabila supporters under the Alliance for the Presidential Majority banner (AMP).

The AMP dominates the new legislature, with 270 deputies or 54 percent of the seats.

This article may be reproduced with credit to the author and publisher.

Southern African News Features (SANF) is produced by the Southern African Research and Documentation Centre (SARDC), which has monitored regional developments since 1985

Africa telling her story

2006-09-23T14:23:00.000-07:00

“Africa will write her own history and from both north and south of the Sahara, it will be a history of glory and dignity” These prophetic words were contained in Patrice Lumumba’s last letter to his wife Pauline.

Lumumba was the first democratically elected prime minister of Congo. He was publicly humiliated by his detractors and subsequently murdered while imprisoned in 1960.

More than four decades later, the relevance of Lumumba’s call for Africa to tell her story need not be over-emphasized – this against a background of rapid developments in Africa that have gone under-reported in global media.

This is not to suggest that they will be no significant contribution from non-Africans to the local and global debate about the state of the African continent. For indeed, there will always be that too rare journalism from individuals who know their beat intimately, others having lived in Africa for decades.

Afri-news takes the view that African people and the rest of enlightened humanity are today more reluctant to swallow simplistic notions about Africa often emanating from individuals with little knowledge of the continent and its people.

Such critical consumption of media is good since it creates possibilities for African journalists to represent the unfolding African reality through their own eyes.

Lumumba’s vision of the authentic African story should not be allowed to die with him.

By Tula Dlamini (Afri-news editor & publisher)

SADC region reaps peace dividend

2006-09-23T14:14:00.001-07:00

by Joseph Ngwawi

AN UNPRECEDENTED peaceful and stable environment in southern Africa signals new opportunities for a region that has witnessed successive conflicts for the greater part of the last 50 years.

For the first time since the late 1940s when South Africa consolidated its then policy of apartheid and African nationalism gave birth to liberation movements in most SADC Member States, southern Africa is enjoying relative peace, political stability and security.

Lasting peace has returned to Namibia after independence in 1990, to Mozambique following the signing of the 1992 peace accord that ended 16 years of civil war, and to South Africa after majority rule and the end of the apartheid system in 1994.

The guns have fallen silent in Angola while small pockets of armed insurgents periodically disturb the generally peaceful and tranquil environment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Guided by the Strategic Indicative Plan of the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation (SIPO) - the region's 15-year blueprint on political and security matters - SADC has been undertaking various actions aimed at contributing to the maintenance and consolidation of peace and security.

Structures have been designed to make the initiatives to preserve peace and security more effective. Implementation of SIPO is divided into four main sectors: political, defence, state security and public security.

Judging by the outcomes of elections held in the past two years, the regional political situation is characterised by an acceptance of political pluralism. Regional cooperation in the political sector builds on strong historical ties among Member States, and a number of structures have been created to facilitate regional integration and defence cooperation.

One such structure is the Inter-State Politics and Diplomacy Committee (ISPDC), comprising the ministers of foreign affairs from SADC Member States.

At its annual meeting in Namibia in June, the ISPDC observed that the region generally remained politically stable and peaceful, and that the international environment was favourable towards the region with regard to the flow of public and private investment.

The real prize of peace and stability in the region is the consolidation of current macroeconomic successes enjoyed by Member States.

The return to sustainable peace to Angola, DRC, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa has strengthened their ability to effectively exploit the vast mineral and other resources at their disposal, and to develop policies for the provision of social services and eradication of poverty.

In the case of the DRC, the country is home to one of the world's largest deposits of diamonds, copper and cobalt. DRC (then Zaire) was the fourth largest producer of industrial diamonds in the 1980s and the mineral continues to account for over half of its annual exports. The DRC also has vast untapped agricultural capacity and could be the next food-basket of Africa, if the current peace process can be sustained.

Straddling the equator and spanning two tropical zones, its climate favours the cultivation of a wide range of tropical and sub-tropical crops. More than half of the DRC's land is arable and suitable for farming but currently just a fraction is being utilised.

Angola, too, has vast agricultural potential and is beginning to reap a peace dividend from the stability now existing in the country.

Petrol-dollars have fuelled a restoration boom in the country torn by 27 years of civil war that ended in 2002, and donors and investors are also helping with reconstruction, especially of roads, railways and housing.

Angola is the second largest producer of crude oil in sub-Saharan Africa after Nigeria and pumps 1.4 million barrels a day, a figure the government sees rising to two million barrels per day by the end of 2007.

Since the end of the civil war in 1992, Mozambique's economy has grown on the back of economic reforms and infrastructural developments. It registered average Gross Domestic Product growth of about eight percent a year from 1995 to 2004, with the government and International Monetary Fund forecasting 7.9 percent growth in 2006.

Namibia has also enjoyed the benefits of peace and stability since its independence 16 years ago.
The mining sector is the traditional backbone of the economy and generates the biggest share of Namibia's foreign-exchange earnings. Namibia is the world's fifth-largest producer of uranium and has large deposits of diamonds.

It has contributed significantly to regional integration and hosts the SADC Parliamentary Forum and the SADC Tribunal. The fall of apartheid in South Africa opened up enormous opportunities for the region, putting behind a lengthy period of economic and military destabilisation.

The new South Africa has been a major regional and international player in conflict resolution efforts and plays host to the Pan African Parliament (PAP) and the New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) among other continental bodies. PAP and NEPAD are two of the most important institutions of the African Union.

Another dividend from the return to multiracial democracy in South Africa has been its ability to host major international events such as the Rugby World Cup in 1995, the soccer African Cup of Nations in 1996 and the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002.

The country will host the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the first time such an event will be held in Africa. The World Cup is going to attract international attention to the SADC region, with spin-off benefits for all the Member States.

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SADC TODAY, SARDC, P.O Box 5690, Harare, Zimbabwe.
E-mail: sadctoday@sardc.net